RADIO
The 2020 fantasy football season is going to be unlike any other. With 2020 being such a volatile year and knowing the risks of playing fantasy in a year where any player could be shut down for weeks if they test positive for COVID, I am looking to take as few risks as possible early on.
In fact, I have detailed my fantasy strategy for this season, and it is all about building a safe base in the early rounds and then chasing upside later. But there are a number of RBs that go early that do come with larger concerns than others. The bust factor is something that very much needs to be considered when targeting players in the early rounds.
There are three running backs that are all going off the board as RB2 that come with a lot of bust potential, all for different reasons. I am not saying I will flat out not draft these players, but I do think you have to consider the bust factor before doing so.
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Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks
Carson is an RB that is always undervalued when healthy. He simply just puts up RB1 numbers when he’s on the field. The issue is he has not been able to stay healthy for long. Carson finished as the RB12 last season and the RB15 the year prior, all while never having played 16 games in his career. Carson’s rookie season was cut short when he fractured his ankle. Carson missed time in 2018 due to a hip sprain and left another game later that season due to a hip injury. The scariest injury occurred last season, when Carson fractured his hip. It forced him to miss the final game of the regular season and the playoffs. He did not have surgery on the hip, rather choosing to rehab in the offseason.
The Seahawks are saying all good things about Carson and his hip (would you expect anything less from Pete Carroll?). But they did go out and sign an insurance option in Carlos Hyde (and were in talks with Devonta Freeman too). If we see a healthy Carson in the preseason and he is back to looking like himself then you will not have much to worry about. But, just knowing the amount of injuries that have plagued Carson during his NFL career and that he is coming off of a very severe injury is enough for me to include him as a potential bust. Especially when you add in that he goes in the third round on average but sneaks into the second round at times. That is a lofty price to pay for a back coming off a severe injury. Carson is included here because of injury, not talent or his performance. You don’t have to avoid him completely, but just know that you’ve been warned!
Here is what RotoBaller’s own Physical Therapist, Aaron Burger, says about Carson’s hip:
“It was actually reported as a hip fracture, which would be a serious concern, but Pete Carroll came out and said that he avoided a fracture as well as surgery. Within that hip there is a ball and socket joint, there's also a labrum which is a cartilaginous ring which helps to keep the ball in the socket. He could have injured that if there wasn't a fracture, but the fact that he didn't have surgery is definitely promising. His injury concerns through the years are actually a little bit more serious to me given his running style. The fact that he's had any type of injury to that hip increases the chances that he could have arthritis there sooner than someone that didn't have a hip injury.”
Speaking of concerns with arthritis…
Todd Gurley II, Atlanta Falcons
Gurley has been my favorite player basically since he entered the NFL. I drafted him as a rookie in my favorite home league and was able to keep him throughout his historic run. In another league, I traded a still-in-his-prime AP for a rookie Gurley and rode him ever since. We won titles together, I own a Gurley player shirt, and I can’t tell you how many great fantasy memories he’s given me. Last year was the first season I threw him back in each of those leagues and I was fearful I would regret it. But the Gurley we saw last year was a shell of his former self.
Gurley averaged just 14.6 PPR PPG last season after averaging 26.6 the year prior. The only year he fared worse was the Jeff Fisher-ruined season of 2016. But history states that last year was the beginning of the end for Gurley. His decrease of 12 fantasy PPG from one season to the next was a huge drop-off. Since 2000, no player has had a decrease in PPG that large and ever averaged 15 fantasy PPG in a season again. Only three times had a player ever averaged over 10 fantasy PPG again.
Could Gurley once again rewrite the history books like we saw him do routinely during that historic run? Maybe. But I am not sure that version of Gurley exists anymore. His knee clearly hampered him last season as his efficiency as both a runner and receiver decreased. He saw massive decreases in his targets, receptions and receiving yards. In fact, so much of what salvaged his season last year was the 14 touchdowns he scored. Gurley scored 38 percent of his fantasy points last year off touchdowns. That is an insanely high number. In fact, it was the highest of all RBs who finished inside the top 65 fantasy RBs. A Falcons RB has not scored 14 touchdowns since Devonta Freeman did so in 2015.
Spending an early pick and hoping that Gurley’s decrease in production was more about the Rams and not his arthritic knee is something I just can’t get myself to do. We had a great run Gurley, but I will be avoiding you this season. And just know, it’s not me, it’s you.
Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
Here is a running back that I fully expected to be all over this season. He finished as the RB7 last year despite scoring just three touchdowns. I expected positive touchdown regression and was hopeful the rest of his usage would remain the same. But I do not expect that to be the case this season.
First, the Jags have a new offensive coordinator in Jay Gruden. His offenses have finished in the top-15 in the NFL in rushing touchdowns in just three of nine NFL seasons. That is definitely concerning if you are relying on a bounce-back in touchdowns. Another reason why Gruden is scary to me - throughout his NFL career, his offenses have become more pass-reliant. In his tenure with the Redskins, it was a 60/40 split in favor of passing. When you consider that the Jaguars are expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL, you would rightfully expect them to trail often and therefore have to throw more.
During his time with the Bengals and Redskins he only once had an RB top 200 PPR points and that was Gio Bernard in 2013. Under Gruden, no running back has rushed for 1,100 yards. That is scary for Fournette. Additionally, last season Fournette had 100 targets and 76 catches. Fournette supporters are anticipating him to remain heavily used in the passing game but I cannot get behind that. Gruden has never had an RB top 55 catches. That could be because Chris Thompson just couldn’t stay healthy in Washington.
Thompson had at least 54 targets in each of the last four seasons under Gruden. He’s had 35 or more catches in each of the last five seasons. That is all with Thompson playing 11 games or fewer in the past three seasons. So, we know Thompson is a favorite of Gruden. I think Thompson was brought here because of Gruden and I expect Thompson to be utilized in the passing game and eat into Fournette’s work. It is also very possible we see Laviska Shenault Jr. catch some passes out of the backfield. As you can see there is a lot to worry about with Fournette here. And that is before you even consider that they were rumored to be shopping him and the fact that he may be one off the field incident away from the Jags moving on. To me, the risks greatly outweigh the reward here.
Here is a thread on Fournette that breaks down how many touchdowns he would need to score to make up for the loss of targets. I did so to figure out what he would need to finish as the RB7 (last year’s production) and as the RB15 (his FFPC ADP).
There seems to be two conflicting thoughts with Leonard Fournette.
Positive TD regression (which I do think is coming) vs. A loss in pass game usage (which I also think is coming).
I wanted to figure out how many touchdowns would be needed to mitigate any loss of targets.
— Michael Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) June 16, 2020
Who are RBs that you are afraid will bust this season? Make sure to hit me up on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio and let me know!
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