X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Stud Running Backs You Should Worry About in 2020

Michael Florio names three early-round running backs that he is fearful will bust in fantasy football this season. Should you worry about RBs Chris Carson, Todd Gurley and Leonard Fournette in 2020 drafts?

The 2020 fantasy football season is going to be unlike any other. With 2020 being such a volatile year and knowing the risks of playing fantasy in a year where any player could be shut down for weeks if they test positive for COVID, I am looking to take as few risks as possible early on.

In fact, I have detailed my fantasy strategy for this season, and it is all about building a safe base in the early rounds and then chasing upside later. But there are a number of RBs that go early that do come with larger concerns than others. The bust factor is something that very much needs to be considered when targeting players in the early rounds.

There are three running backs that are all going off the board as RB2 that come with a lot of bust potential, all for different reasons. I am not saying I will flat out not draft these players, but I do think you have to consider the bust factor before doing so.

Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

 

Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks

Carson is an RB that is always undervalued when healthy. He simply just puts up RB1 numbers when he’s on the field. The issue is he has not been able to stay healthy for long. Carson finished as the RB12 last season and the RB15 the year prior, all while never having played 16 games in his career. Carson’s rookie season was cut short when he fractured his ankle. Carson missed time in 2018 due to a hip sprain and left another game later that season due to a hip injury. The scariest injury occurred last season, when Carson fractured his hip. It forced him to miss the final game of the regular season and the playoffs. He did not have surgery on the hip, rather choosing to rehab in the offseason.

The Seahawks are saying all good things about Carson and his hip (would you expect anything less from Pete Carroll?). But they did go out and sign an insurance option in Carlos Hyde (and were in talks with Devonta Freeman too). If we see a healthy Carson in the preseason and he is back to looking like himself then you will not have much to worry about. But, just knowing the amount of injuries that have plagued Carson during his NFL career and that he is coming off of a very severe injury is enough for me to include him as a potential bust. Especially when you add in that he goes in the third round on average but sneaks into the second round at times. That is a lofty price to pay for a back coming off a severe injury. Carson is included here because of injury, not talent or his performance. You don’t have to avoid him completely, but just know that you’ve been warned!

Here is what RotoBaller’s own Physical Therapist, Aaron Burger, says about Carson’s hip:

“It was actually reported as a hip fracture, which would be a serious concern, but Pete Carroll came out and said that he avoided a fracture as well as surgery. Within that hip there is a ball and socket joint, there's also a labrum which is a cartilaginous ring which helps to keep the ball in the socket. He could have injured that if there wasn't a fracture, but the fact that he didn't have surgery is definitely promising. His injury concerns through the years are actually a little bit more serious to me given his running style. The fact that he's had any type of injury to that hip increases the chances that he could have arthritis there sooner than someone that didn't have a hip injury.”

Speaking of concerns with arthritis…

 

Todd Gurley II, Atlanta Falcons

Gurley has been my favorite player basically since he entered the NFL. I drafted him as a rookie in my favorite home league and was able to keep him throughout his historic run. In another league, I traded a still-in-his-prime AP for a rookie Gurley and rode him ever since. We won titles together, I own a Gurley player shirt, and I can’t tell you how many great fantasy memories he’s given me. Last year was the first season I threw him back in each of those leagues and I was fearful I would regret it. But the Gurley we saw last year was a shell of his former self.

Gurley averaged just 14.6 PPR PPG last season after averaging 26.6 the year prior. The only year he fared worse was the Jeff Fisher-ruined season of 2016. But history states that last year was the beginning of the end for Gurley. His decrease of 12 fantasy PPG from one season to the next was a huge drop-off. Since 2000, no player has had a decrease in PPG that large and ever averaged 15 fantasy PPG in a season again. Only three times had a player ever averaged over 10 fantasy PPG again.

Could Gurley once again rewrite the history books like we saw him do routinely during that historic run? Maybe. But I am not sure that version of Gurley exists anymore. His knee clearly hampered him last season as his efficiency as both a runner and receiver decreased. He saw massive decreases in his targets, receptions and receiving yards. In fact, so much of what salvaged his season last year was the 14 touchdowns he scored. Gurley scored 38 percent of his fantasy points last year off touchdowns. That is an insanely high number. In fact, it was the highest of all RBs who finished inside the top 65 fantasy RBs. A Falcons RB has not scored 14 touchdowns since Devonta Freeman did so in 2015.

Spending an early pick and hoping that Gurley’s decrease in production was more about the Rams and not his arthritic knee is something I just can’t get myself to do. We had a great run Gurley, but I will be avoiding you this season. And just know, it’s not me, it’s you.

 

Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars

Here is a running back that I fully expected to be all over this season. He finished as the RB7 last year despite scoring just three touchdowns. I expected positive touchdown regression and was hopeful the rest of his usage would remain the same. But I do not expect that to be the case this season.

First, the Jags have a new offensive coordinator in Jay Gruden. His offenses have finished in the top-15 in the NFL in rushing touchdowns in just three of nine NFL seasons. That is definitely concerning if you are relying on a bounce-back in touchdowns. Another reason why Gruden is scary to me - throughout his NFL career, his offenses have become more pass-reliant. In his tenure with the Redskins, it was a 60/40 split in favor of passing. When you consider that the Jaguars are expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL, you would rightfully expect them to trail often and therefore have to throw more.

During his time with the Bengals and Redskins he only once had an RB top 200 PPR points and that was Gio Bernard in 2013. Under Gruden, no running back has rushed for 1,100 yards. That is scary for Fournette. Additionally, last season Fournette had 100 targets and 76 catches. Fournette supporters are anticipating him to remain heavily used in the passing game but I cannot get behind that. Gruden has never had an RB top 55 catches. That could be because Chris Thompson just couldn’t stay healthy in Washington.

Thompson had at least 54 targets in each of the last four seasons under Gruden. He’s had 35 or more catches in each of the last five seasons. That is all with Thompson playing 11 games or fewer in the past three seasons. So, we know Thompson is a favorite of Gruden. I think Thompson was brought here because of Gruden and I expect Thompson to be utilized in the passing game and eat into Fournette’s work. It is also very possible we see Laviska Shenault Jr. catch some passes out of the backfield. As you can see there is a lot to worry about with Fournette here. And that is before you even consider that they were rumored to be shopping him and the fact that he may be one off the field incident away from the Jags moving on. To me, the risks greatly outweigh the reward here.

Here is a thread on Fournette that breaks down how many touchdowns he would need to score to make up for the loss of targets. I did so to figure out what he would need to finish as the RB7 (last year’s production) and as the RB15 (his FFPC ADP).

Who are RBs that you are afraid will bust this season? Make sure to hit me up on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio and let me know!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF