Overvalued RBs To Avoid In Fantasy Football Drafts - Josh Jacobs, Raheem Mostert, Rachaad White, more

Mike looks at five fantasy football running back busts and fades for 2024 drafts. He looks at overvalued fantasy football RBs to avoid drafting in 2024.

The NFL views the running back differently than they did 20 years ago. Instead of having a featured guy getting 350 or more touches a year, teams now use multiple running backs. While the change in the backfield is good for the league, fantasy football players are split on the change.

While having an elite featured guy on your fantasy team is amazing, the depth at the running back position has never been deeper. However, having a featured workload isn’t guaranteed a top-five finish. Meanwhile, running backs in a near 50-50 split can still finish the season as a top-12 producer. A running back can be a fantasy football bust as a first-round featured guy or a mid-round pick in a split backfield.

Let’s look at five running backs that I will avoid drafting this year. The ADP for this article is via RotoBaller.

Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.

Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers

• ADP: 44.6 | RB12

The veteran running back signed a massive four-year deal with Green Bay in free agency, suggesting he will be the Packers’ featured running back this year. However, the team can move on from Jacobs after the 2024 season if he struggles. Meanwhile, the coaching staff has praised MarShawn Lloyd and wants to make him a critical part of the offense.

That’s not surprising, given how much Jacobs regressed from a career year in 2022 to last season, posting career lows in rushing yards (805), yards per attempt (3.5), and touchdowns (six). The veteran running back saw his yards per rushing attempt decline by 29%, his explosive run rate slip by 52%, and his yards after contact per attempt drop by 29% from 2022 to 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data).

Lloyd has made some impressive plays during training camp. Furthermore, the coaching staff wants AJ Dillon to have a role in the backfield. Don’t be surprised if Lloyd and Dillon push Jacobs into a running back-by-committee situation rather than the featured role fantasy players expect from him in 2024.

Packers rookie RB Marshawn Lloyd rips off a big 50yd run in practice! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/teytD1KutR

— Alexander Basara (@Basaraski) August 1, 2024

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• ADP: 44.7 | RB13

White was the RB7, averaging 13.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in 2023. However, the former Arizona State star was an RB1 because of volume, not his talents. He was second in rushing attempts (272) but 14th in yards (990). White also ranked 89th in yards after contact per attempt, 84th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 76th in explosive run rate.

Furthermore, his explosive run rate (2.2%) was lower than Latavius Murray’s, while his rushing yards after contact per attempt (2.24) was worse than Kevin Harris’ (per Fantasy Points Data). More importantly, White was a top-10 running back because of his role in the passing game. He had the seventh-most targets (70), fourth-most receptions (64), and third-most receiving yards (549) among running backs last season.

Over 44% of his fantasy points scored last year came in the passing game. However, that likely won’t happen again in 2024 after the Buccaneers added Jalen McMillan and Bucky Irving during the NFL Draft. Irving will be a massive upgrade over Chase Edmonds and Sean Tucker as the No. 2 running back. Meanwhile, McMillan has been impressive in training camp.

Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings

• ADP: 69.5 | RB19

Daily fantasy players and NFL bettors loved Jones during last year’s playoffs. He had an outstanding two-game run in the postseason against two talented defenses. The veteran was the RB2 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 113 rushing yards, 1.5 touchdowns, and 23.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest.

However, fantasy players must worry about his regular season struggles, as the former University Texas El-Paso star missed six games and left two others early in 2023 because of hamstring and knee injuries. More importantly, Jones changed teams this offseason and is coming off arguably the year of his career.

Aaron Jones having a MONSTER game, but watch him grab his left hamstring at the end of this play as he gets close to the end zone.

Something to monitor.
pic.twitter.com/N3XpXxc4F1

— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) September 10, 2023

According to PFF, the veteran posted career lows in yards per rushing attempt (4.5) and breakaway run rate (18.6%) in 2023. Jones ranked 34th in explosive run rate (3.5%), 32nd in missed forced tackle per attempt rate (16%), and 21st in yards after contact per attempt (2.70) among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Furthermore, Jones turns 30 in December. Fantasy players should draft Ty Chandler at his ADP (139.1 | RB46) over the veteran running back.

Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins

• ADP: 84.6 | RB25

Fantasy players had low expectations for Mostert last season. The veteran running back had never had over 900 rushing yards in any year of his career before 2023. However, he was a fantasy superstar and league winner last season. Mostert ended the year as the RB2, averaging 16.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. While he was outstanding for fantasy players, his production came with a massive red flag.

Mostert scored over 52% of his career touchdown total last season, leading the NFL with 21 offensive scores. More importantly, 51.9% of his fantasy points in 2023 were from touchdowns. By comparison, Christian McCaffrey was the only running back to outscore Mostert in half-point PPR scoring, also totaling 21 offensive scores.

However, only 35.2% of his fantasy points were from touchdowns last year. More importantly, Mostert likely won’t see the same 209 rushing attempts and 32 targets from last season with Jaylen Waddle healthy, De'Von Achane’s expanding role, and the addition of Jaylen Wright.

Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals

• ADP: 92.4 | RB28

Many have high hopes for Moss after Cincinnati signed him to replace Joe Mixon this offseason. The veteran running back averaged 22 touches and 12.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in his five healthy contests for the Indianapolis Colts without Jonathan Taylor last season. However, he was a wildly inconsistent player during those five games.

Moss averaged under four yards per rushing attempt and scored nine or fewer fantasy points in 60% of those contests. Unfortunately, the veteran was even worse than those numbers suggest. His 3.1% explosive run rate, 2.29 yards after contact per attempt, and 51% stuff rate during those five games would have ranked in the bottom six among 33 running backs with at least 170 rushing attempts in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data).

The veteran running back has struggled to stay healthy as the starter, missing over 20% of the games in his four-year career. Meanwhile, Chase Brown has gained ground on the starting role and received significant hype lately. Fantasy players should pass on Moss at his ADP and target Brown at his (112.4 | RB36) nearly two rounds later.

"If I could play fantasy football, I'd take him as my first running back…He's going to have a year. I guarantee it. Special talent, special player."

- Bengals OT Orlando Brown on RB Chase Brown via @espn pic.twitter.com/K3fVtxZ1zI

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) August 3, 2024

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