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Gladys L Tyler reviews the top red-zone risers and fallers heading into Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season at QB, RB, and WR to help fantasy football managers find an edge in their weekly lineups.
The truth is it is still early, as we are in Week 4 of a 17-week season. But trends are starting to emerge, and players are starting to shine.
Rather than individual positions, this time we will evaluate team offenses who have seen their fortunes rise or fall based on early results.
As a reminder, the red zone is between the 20-yard line and the goal line.
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Risers - L.A. Chargers
Last week the Los Angeles Chargers broke the dam that was their continuous threat on the red zone without actually scoring.
Justin Herbert now has 18 red zone attempts and eight completions.
Austin Ekeler has seven rushing attempts in the red zone with one touchdown and one target, one reception with no touchdowns. Mike Williams leads the rising Chargers red zone efficiency with five targets, two receptions for two touchdowns. Keenan Allen, although a target hog, has not scored a red zone touchdown on his five targets and three receptions.
The Chargers play the Las Vegas Raiders this week on Monday Night Football. Per teamrankings.com, the Raiders are tied for last in opponent red zone scoring percentage (100%).
Fallers - San Francisco 49ers
The Niners lead in red zone attempts and look for them to fall this week as they play the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are surrendering points and yards but are stout when holding their opponents from scoring in the red zone 43.75% (5th ranked).
Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has 13 red zone passing attempts. But we know it has been Trey Lance when it comes to quarterback red zone rushing attempts. Lance has two red zone carries (Garoppolo has one with one touchdown) with one red zone touchdown.
When looking at red zone stats, oft-injured Brandon Aiyuk wins. Aiyuk has only been on the field for 9.6% of the target share, and he has eight targets, three of which are red-zone targets.
Deebo Samuel has a 36.1% target share. He has 30 targets, but only two are red-zone targets.
While the red zone matters, Seattle’s defense is giving up 285.3 passing yards per game (26th) and 1.7 (T14th) passing touchdowns per game. This equates to Seattle surrendering the deep play more so than the red zone score.
Risers - Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills average 4.7 red zone scoring attempts per game. But they only score o 64.29% of those attempts.
Look for that to change and the Bills to rise this week as they meet the Houston Texans, who give up a touchdown in the red zone 66.67% of the time.
The most prolific red zone threat is, of course, quarterback Josh Allen. Allen has 33 red zone attempts, both passing and rushing.
Zack Moss is stealing red zone carries from Devin Singletary. Singletary is on the field for 62.4% of the offensive snaps. He has 35 carries and 10 targets with eight red-zone touches.
Moss, on the other hand, is on the field for 41% of the offensive snaps. He has 21 carries and five targets with 10 red zone touches.
Cole Beasley plays in slot 80.6% of the offensive plays. Out of his 30 targets, six are in the red zone. Stefon Diggs is on the field for 83.9% of the offensive snaps. He has 32 targets, with four in the red zone.
With this game predicted to get out of hand early, look for Moss and Allen to be the risers from this game.
Fallers - Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers are falling and falling fast. They have averaged 2.3 red zone attempts per game, scoring a touchdown on 42.86% of those attempts.
Najee Harris is on the field for 95.2% of offensive plays. He has 40 carries and 27 targets, with eight red-zone touches. The problem is that it has resulted in one touchdown.
No, maybe the problem is quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger has attempted 130 passes, 14 in the red zone, averaging 6.2 yards per attempt. Per playerprofiler.com, his red-zone completion percentage is 71.4%, but 9.28% of his throws are in the red zone. His deep ball completion percentage is 26.7, and his pressured completion percentage is 45%.
Between JuJu Smith Schuster, Diontae Johnson, and Chase Claypool, there are two red-zone targets. Both of those targets belong to Johnson.
Fallers - Chicago Bears
The Bears are averaging 4.8 yards per attempt. They rank 26th in red-zone efficiency touchdown only (per teamrankings.com). David Montgomery leads the team with eight red-zone touches on nine targets and 46 carries, and he has one touchdown.
The Bears are only averaging 1.3 touchdowns per game.
Both quarterbacks have five red zone attempts. Andy Dalton has them on 49 attempts, Justin Fields on 35. The team has four total touchdowns, the Bears and Matt Nagy offense will continue to fall until they can establish some continuity.
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