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Matt Donnelly's quarterback (QB) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Divisional Round of 2025. His QB lineups advice for Divisional Round fantasy football start/sit decisions.
Wild Card Weekend is now in the books, and in the Divisional Round, we have some heavyweight tilts on the docket. Only eight quarterbacks remain as Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Jared Goff, Jayden Daniels, and Matthew Stafford all look to punch their teams' tickets into the Conference Championships.
With only eight quarterbacks remaining and only six spots available on the start/sit list, it's all about digging deeper into the numbers. Luckily, some previews took place earlier in the season to assist with our decision-making this week.
No one ever said that it would be easy. Winning playoff challenges involves playing 3D chess while others are playing checkers. So, to help fantasy managers with those difficult fantasy decisions at the quarterback position, here are RotoBaller's Divisional Weekend starts and sits.
Divisional Weekend Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Jayden Daniels - QB, Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions
It is safe to say that Jayden Daniels had a successful playoff debut against the Buccaneers on Wild Card Weekend. The rookie completed 24 of 36 passing attempts for 268 yards and a pair of touchdowns, connecting with Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown. Daniels also led the way for the Commanders on the ground, carrying the ball 13 times for 36 yards.
PEEKABOOOOOOO 👻
📺 #WASvsTB @SNFonNBC pic.twitter.com/M5JNCesPwi
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) January 13, 2025
During the NFL fantasy season, Daniels averaged 22.5 fantasy points per game, topping 23 fantasy points in five of his final six games (that's including Week 18's 4.2 fantasy points), so it shouldn't have come as a surprise that Daniels produced 26 fantasy points last week against the Buccaneers.
Detroit had the week off, but looking over their final four weeks of the fantasy season, we see a team that allowed a league-high 27.52 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks to close out the fantasy football regular season. Over that period, Detroit surrendered 1,274 passing yards, 131 rushing yards, and 11 total touchdowns to the position.
Daniels finished second to Lamar Jackson in rushing yards and set a new quarterback rookie rushing record with 891 yards on the ground this season. Daniels' six rushing scores trailed only Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen in that category, putting the rookie in a prime position as this week's top overall fantasy scorer at the quarterback.
Lamar Jackson - QB, Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
Detroit may have led the league in fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position over the regular season's final weeks, but the Bills weren't too far behind, as the 23.04 they gave up over that final stretch were the third-most. During Weeks 14 through 17, the Bills allowed 1,191 passing yards and 10 passing touchdowns. Only the Carolina Panthers allowed more touchdowns through the air than the Bills had.
Back in Week 4, Jackson and the Ravens got the better of the Bills. In that contest, Jackson completed 72% of his passing attempts, throwing for a pair of touchdowns and adding a third on the ground. Those 23.6 fantasy points were among the 12 such 22-point fantasy performances Jackson had during the regular season.
If you include Week 18 and the Ravens' Wild Card game, Jackson has produced 21 or more fantasy points in seven successive weeks. Jackson was already named first-team All-Pro, putting him as the front-runner to win his third NFL MVP award. Despite becoming the first player in NFL history with 40-plus passing touchdowns with five or fewer interceptions and becoming the first to run for 800 yards and throw for 4,000 yards in a season, some still question Jackson's resume.
Is Lamar Jackson on the verge of his THIRD MVP? pic.twitter.com/HKEhgVdLEu
— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) January 7, 2025
A solid performance once again this week that ends with a head-to-head victory against Josh Allen should silence the last of the haters.
Jalen Hurts - QB, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams
Much to the dismay of Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts' 15 rushing touchdowns this season were the fifth-most in the NFL and were the most at the quarterback position. A top fantasy finish is always in the cards when you have that in your back pocket.
Hurts is coming off a "bad" week. Against the Packers, Hurts completed just 13 of 21 passing attempts for 131 yards. Add in his 36 rushing yards, and you get 167 yards of total offense. However, he still connected with Jahan Dotson and Dallas Goedert for a pair of touchdown passes, pushing his fantasy total to over 20 fantasy points in his first game since suffering a concussion back in Week 16.
I'd feel better about Hurts' passing prospects if the Vikings had won. However, with the Rams' defensive front led by Kobie Turner, Jared Verse, and Braden Fiske, there is a strong possibility that we will see Hurts pile up the fantasy points with his legs. Unlike Sam Darnold, Hurts ain't afraid of no ghost.
Divisional Weekend Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
C.J. Stroud - QB, Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
C.J. Stroud is coming off a respectable 18.48-point fantasy outing against an outstanding Los Angeles Chargers defense last week. In that game, Stroud produced 42 yards on the ground and 282 yards through the air connecting with Nico Collins on his lone passing touchdown. However, in the previous 11 contests, Stroud had only topped 18 fantasy points just once.
The Divisional matchup against the Chiefs is not terrible for those considering him in one-and-done formats. During the season, the Chiefs ranked in the middle of the pack regarding fantasy points against the quarterback position, allowing 16.95 per contest. Over the final four weeks of the fantasy football season, they allowed 934 passing yards and six touchdowns. I should also caution that they also had seven interceptions.
PICKED! Deane Leonard with the @Chargers interception⚡️
📺: #LACvsHOU on CBS/Paramount+
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/JM3cbrPj1h— NFL (@NFL) January 11, 2025
The Texans and Chiefs met just before Christmas, where Stroud was held to under 60% passing, throwing a pair of interceptions along with his two touchdown passes.
Jared Goff - QB, Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders
Early this season, if you had a quarterback or wide receiver going up against the Commanders, you started them in fantasy. Now, the roles have reversed. Over the season's final four weeks, the Commanders allowed just 11.80 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, the third-fewest to the position. During the season, the 15.46 fantasy points allowed were the seventh-fewest.
Looking back at the Divisional Round, Washington did an excellent job containing Baker Mayfield. The same Baker Mayfield who threw for 4,500 yards and averaged 264.7 passing yards per game, third-most in the league, was held to just 185 passing yards.
Washington comes into Detroit with the 30th-ranked run defense and the Lions roster a pair of backs who each topped 1,000 total yards this season. After watching Bucky Irving average 4.5 yards a carry last week, I expect the Lions to take this fight to the ground early and often.
Josh Allen - QB, Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sorry, Bills Mafia. I'm just following the numbers here. From Weeks 14 through 17, no team allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than the Ravens' 9.75. Baltimore allowed just 781 passing yards and forced more interceptions (5) than touchdown passes surrendered (4) over that time.
This isn't the first meeting between Josh Allen and the Ravens this season. In Week 4, the Ravens took it to the Bills, handing Allen and company a 35-10 loss. In that contest, Allen completed just 16 of 29 passing attempts, carried the ball five times for 21 yards, and failed to reach the end zone.
We get Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in the Divisional Round of the Playoffs.
The two MVP front runners facing off against each other for a spot in the AFC Championship Game.
Oh how the Football Gods have BLESSED US 🤌🏾
— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) January 12, 2025
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