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Welcome to our fantasy football Breakouts, Busts, and Locks, a series on RotoBaller where our writers look at three key players on each NFL team. Today, we're talking about the Philadelphia Eagles.
After watching receiver after receiver go in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, there were people (including myself) who thought the Eagles were going to head into the season with DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert as the only two upper echelon receivers on the roster. But then, in typical fashion, General Manager Howie Roseman made a splash, trading the No. 18 overall pick (Treylon Burks) and the No. 101 overall pick in the Draft to the Tennessee Titans for star wide receiver A.J. Brown. Brown, Jalen Hurts' "best friend," just so happens to be one of the most dynamic receivers in the NFL. If Hurts can improve even just a little bit as a passer, this team is going to be special. But what does that mean from a fantasy football perspective?
Below, you'll find a fantasy football breakout candidate, a fantasy football bust candidate, and a safe fantasy football pick for the Eagles based on early ADP for fantasy football drafts in 2022.
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Fantasy Football Breakout: Dallas Goedert
Last season, from Week 7 on, Dallas Goedert was the WR5 on a points per game basis, behind just Mark Andrews, George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Rob Gronkowski. After 8+ seasons in Philadelphia, the Eagles traded his teammate, Zach Ertz, to the Arizona Cardinals after Week 6. That opened up a ton of playing time and opportunity for Goedert. Prior to the trade, he averaged just 3.8 targets per game on a 67.8% snap share. He ran just 18.4 routes per game, for a targets per route run (TPRR) rate of 20.7%. As a result, Goedert was just the TE15 through five games even with scoring two touchdowns on just 19 total targets.
After the trade, Goedert averaged 6.1 targets per game on a 90.2% snap share. He ran 20.4 routes, for a TPRR of 29.9%. His target share also increased from 10.7% to 28.2%. But with Brown now an Eagle, we're not likely to see a 28.2% target share from Goedert this season. However, that doesn't mean he won't be north of 20% with a very narrow target funnel consisting of Brown, Goedert, and DeVonta Smith. Since his rookie season, his target share has slowly been on the rise, even with Ertz on the field. (8.4% --> 15.6% --> 16.7% --> 18.6%).
By trading for Brown and giving him a $100 million extension, the Eagles are most definitely signaling their desire to throw the ball more than they did in 2021. In the first seven games (six with Ertz), Hurts averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game. In his last eight games, he averaged just 23.8 pass attempts per game (all without Ertz). With a third [really good] receiving option available, expect the Eagles to get back to passing at a rate of close to 32-33 times per game.
And here's something we haven't even mentioned yet. Goedert will not only see more opportunity as the lone tight end seeing a 95% snap share, but he's undeniably good at the game of football. Check out these two statistics:
He's running legitimate routes that generate lots of fantasy points and he's getting open because he's good at the game. By betting on Goedert the talent, you're not only getting a very solid floor at a shallow tight end position, but you're also getting the upside of a guy that could garner a 25%+ target share should Smith or Brown be forced to miss any time this season. The breakout is being covered up by the acquisition of A.J. Brown, but don't let that steer you in a different direction.
Fantasy Football Bust: Miles Sanders
There's really no denying that Miles Sanders is good at the game of football. Last season, he ranked third in true yards per carry (5.2), 10th in yards per touch (5.6), and fifth in breakaway run rate (8.0%), all per PlayerProfiler. The reason he's considered a "fantasy football bust" has so much more to do with the situation in Philadelphia than it does his talent. Let's dive into that situation.
For starters, Sanders' target opportunities have decreased year over year since his rookie season. Take a look:
This is the opposite of what we want out of our running backs in fantasy football. We want guys who play on third down and in the two-minute drill. Unfortunately, Sanders was very much a guy the Eagles ran between the 20s last year, but didn't target much in the passing game, and didn't utilize much inside the 10-yard line. Check this out:
Many will argue that Sanders is in for major positive touchdown regression. That's 100% accurate, as there's nowhere to go but up on zero touchdowns a season ago. However, we can't ignore the fact that his role in this offense is different with Jalen Hurts as quarterback and Nick Sirianni as head coach. So while he's going to find the endzone on multiple occasions, he's unlikely to see enough work in the passing game to make him anything more than a low-end RB2. Not to mention Hurts is the biggest threat to siphon touchdowns away from Sanders when the Eagles get to the "Green Zone" (inside the 5-yard line).
The good thing here is that you can pick up Sanders relatively cheap this season (current ADP RB26), but how much of a ceiling should we realistically expect? So again, it's not that Sanders isn't good at the game of football, this very much has to do with his current role in the offense, mixed with the other running backs that can be drafted around his ADP (Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Devin Singletary, Kareem Hunt, Tony Pollard, Rashaad Penny, Chase Edmonds, Rhamondre Stevenson). All of these guys have massive upside in their respective offenses.
And let's not forget, the man literally told people NOT to draft him in fantasy football this season:
Fantasy Football Lock: Jalen Hurts
This one is pretty simple. Jalen Hurts was the QB3 in points per game between Weeks 14 and 16 his rookie season when he started and finished a game. He came back in his sophomore campaign and finished as the QB6, averaging 21.41 fantasy points per game. He did that by passing for just 209.6 yards per game with 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 2021. His additional 784 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground provided fantasy managers with the combination of an elite floor and ceiling week in and week out.
He did all that without A.J. Brown, who's not only a top-10 receiver in the NFL, but who just so happens to be Hurts' best friend. Before Ertz was traded last season, Hurts had three legitimate weapons at his disposal in the receiving game (Ertz, Goedert, Smith). Through Week 6, Hurts attempted 34.7 passes per game and 8.8 rush attempts per game. After Ertz was traded, Hurts' pass attempts per game dropped to just 23.8, while his rush attempts per game remained relatively steady at 9.6 per game.
Through Week 6 (with Ertz), Hurts was the overall QB5, averaging 25.2 fantasy points per game. From Week 7 on, he was just the QB10, averaging 18.9 fantasy points per game. With a consistent three options in the passing game to choose from (Brown, Goedert, Smith), expect Hurts to provide top-five production on a weekly basis.
Besides maybe Josh Allen, there's not a safer bet at the quarterback position in fantasy football to finish top-five at his position with overall QB1 upside than Jalen Hurts in 2022.
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