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Overrated, Underrated: Week Two

Prior to the season's commencement, I offered up a pair of players who could have been selected later in drafts as cheaper, yet comparable, alternatives to more highly-touted players. To continue the same train of thought, I will provide, on a weekly basis, underrated alternatives to overrated players.

Aside from the first week of baseball providing us historic performances in the most unexpected packages -- not to mention a slew of season-jeopardizing injuries -- it also offered some insight to how certain players might be deployed, specifically in part-time or platoon duty. However, some players just plain suck or don't have the upside to warrant high ownership rates.

Enjoy a little bit of both. FYI: all ownership numbers are current as of April 10.

 

In the Outfield

OVERVALUED: Randal Grichuk, STL OF
62% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Domingo Santana, MIL OF
15% owned, per Fleaflicker

Grichuk has already ceded three of six possible starts to Jeremy Hazelbaker, so his value can't be considered anything but tenuous at this point. But this goes beyond playing time issues. The small-sample-size microscope has put Grichuk's dubious contact skills on blast. His 30-home run pace last year obscured the flimsiness of his horrific 31.4% strikeout rate (K%) and meager 6.3% walk rate (BB%). A lone single and eight strikeouts through 18 plate appearances, however, tends to change things.

Again, we're talking small samples here, but they seem particularly telling here. Pitchers fool Grichuk, seducing swings and misses on pitches outside the zone at a rate that almost paces the entire league. The most critical point: this isn't different from last year. Grichuk is still Grichuk, but when the power isn't there, he's borderline unusuable.

Enter Santana. He actually profiles quite similarly to Grichuk: power, speed, serious contact issues. In fact, Santana's contact issues might be worse than Grichuk's. What Santana has going for him, however, is the propensity to take a walk every now and then.

In fact, Santana and Grichuk could not be trending farther away from each other. Whereas Grichuk's 37.0% chase rate (as of April 10, per PITCHf/x) actively ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball, Santana's leads the pack at a minuscule 5.7%. Yes, yes, it's a small sample size, but Santana's eye precedes those of Christian Yelich and Martin Prado, whose respective plate disciplines are the stuff of legends.

Perhaps the learning curve won't be so kind on Santana once pitchers read the book on him. That number could skyrocket any day now. But, for now, Santana seems to know his way around the strike zone, and that makes him a much more capable threat to make good on his otherwise low draft price than Grichuk on his much higher price.

Grichuk will run enough to make himself at least marginally valuable when the power vanishes for extended durations. And, when the power does emerge, he becomes a dream to own. But the contact issues, until they are rectified, will put a firm cailing on Grichuk's upside. Meanwhile, Santana is Grichuk, so to speak, but with better plate discipline. Until further notice, that elevates both his floor and ceiling quite a bit.

 

On the Mound

OVERVALUED: Mike Leake, STL SP
73% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Kenta Maeda, LAD SP
40% owned, per Fleaflicker

Can I be frank with you? This is weird. Honestly, I don't understand why Leake is owned in so many leagues. By ownership rates, he's essentially a top-50 starter. Only once in the last four years has Leake finished inside the top 200 players overall -- which, in 2016, is about where the 55th starter was drafted on average.

Anyway, Leake is overvalued. I won't say much more about that. His upside is intolerably low, no matter how pretty his walk and ground ball rates are. Most of you will have likely have jumped ship after his monstrosity of a season debut anyway.

Maeda is being treated like a top-60 option -- although, like Leake, I'm sure that will change following Maeda's stateside debut. Maeda is an unknown quality, relative to not only Mike Leake but also literally anyone else pitching in the league. He has no minor-league tMarack record -- only his reputation as an elite strike-thrower in the Korean Baseball Organization.

That might be enough, though. His pinpoint command could make him a FIP golden child because of excellent walk and ground ball rates despite what could ultimately be a pedestrian K-rate. His ceiling could look like countryman Hisashi Iwakuma, a similarly excellent control artist who twice ranked among the top 75 players overall prior to his injury-shortened 2015 season. (And, even in the aforementioned injury-shortened season, Iwakuma finished 189th -- better than any of Leake's single-season finishes dating back to 2012.)

Maeda's ceiling is decidedly higher than Leake's, with the distinct possibility that all of Maeda's important metrics -- strikeouts, walks, ground balls -- trump Leake's in a full season, making him a simply better and more effective pitcher. That Maeda starts every five days for the contending Dodgers should only be more of a boon to his value. A bearish assessment could peg Maeda for a top-50 starter, but that would already exceed anything one could reasonably expect from Leake.

 

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Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Ryan Reaves

Placed on Injured Reserve
NYI

Max Shabanov Not Close to Returning
Jusuf Nurkić

Jusuf Nurkic Getting the Start on Sunday Night
Ryan Kalkbrenner

Available Versus Utah
Tyson Foerster

Won't Play Sunday
Aaron Jones Sr.

Sprains AC Join, Expects to Play in Week 9
LaMelo Ball

Won't Play on Sunday Night
Sean Couturier

Returns to Flyers Lineup Sunday
Tucker Kraft

Packers Fear Tucker Kraft Suffered a Torn ACL
Tucker Kraft

Knee Injury "Does Not Look Good"
Matthew Golden

Won't Return Against Panthers in Week 9
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Ruled Out for Remainder of Week 9
Cole Kmet

Downgraded to Out Sunday
Aaron Jones Sr.

Questionable to Return Against Lions
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Questionable to Return with Shoulder Injury
Rashid Shaheed

Will Play Against Rams Sunday
Alvin Kamara

Active to Face Rams in Week 9
C.J. Stroud

Officially Ruled Out with Concussion
Kayshon Boutte

Ruled Out for Remainder of Week 9 Due to Hamstring Injury
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Questionable to Return in Week 9 Due to Knee Injury
Kayshon Boutte

Questionable to Return in Week 9 Due to Hamstring Injury
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Questionable To Return Against Broncos With Head Injury
Kareem Hunt

Brashard Smith To Split Carries Sunday
LaMelo Ball

Not Expected to Play on Sunday
Trevor Lawrence

Dealing with Illness, Still Expected to Start Against Raiders
Aaron Rodgers

Dealing with Hand Injury During Warmups, Likely Fine for Week 9
Terry McLaurin

Could be Out Until After the Week 12 Bye
Ed Oliver

Could Return for the Playoffs
Brock Purdy

Ruled Out Again in Week 9
Austin Cindric

is A Driver to Avoid for Phoenix DFS Lineups
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Named World Series MVP
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Could Alex Bowman be A Sneaky Tournament Play for Phoenix?
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Is Erik Jones Worth Rostering for DFS at Phoenix?
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an Easy Recommendation for DFS at Phoenix
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Ends Dry Spell With Three-Point Effort
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Collects Two More Apples
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Sustains Upper-Body Injury
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Injured on Saturday
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Leaves on Stretcher Saturday
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Questionable Versus OKC
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Probably Won't Win the Title
Joey Logano

Could Play Spoiler in Championship Battle at Phoenix
Tyler Reddick

Seeking to End Winless Drought, but Probably Won't Have the Speed
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Looks to Protect Top-10 Points Finish at Phoenix
Brad Keselowski

Hasn't Been Fast at Phoenix With RFK Racing
Daniel Suarez

With Nothing at Stake, Expect Little From Daniel Suarez
Kyle Busch

Qualifies Well, but Will Probably Finish Worse Than he Starts
Chris Buescher

Ryan Preece has a Shot to Overtake Chris Buescher as RFK Racing's Lead Driver
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Looks to Avoid Finishing Last in NASCAR Playoffs
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Might be a Worthy DFS Option
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to Remain Sidelined Sunday
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Out on Sunday
Mitchell Robinson

Listed as Questionable for Sunday
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to Miss Fourth Straight Game Sunday
Jalen Green

Unavailable Against Spurs
Norman Powell

Questionable to Suit Up Against Lakers
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Remains Absent Sunday
De'Aaron Fox

Still Out Sunday
Daniel Gafford

Makes Season Debut With Minutes Restriction
D'Angelo Russell

Cleared to Play Saturday
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Listed as Probable for Sunday
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Unavailable Sunday
Joel Embiid

to Sit Out Sunday's Action
Sam Merrill

May Skip Another Contest Sunday
Jarrett Allen

Questionable for Sunday
Darius Garland

to Remain Out Sunday
Connor Brown

Won't Play on Saturday
Dylan Strome

Ready to Return Saturday
Sean Couturier

Out on Saturday
Ilya Mikheyev

Set to Return Saturday
Warren Foegele

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TOR

Chris Tanev Cleared for Action
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Remains Out Saturday
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to Start Game 7 of World Series
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X-Rays Come Back Negative on Alejandro Kirk's Hand
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Goes for X-Rays After Being Hit on the Hand
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Set for Season Debut Saturday
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Remains Under Evaluation
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Expected to Return Saturday
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Placed on Injured Reserve
Gleyber Torres

Undergoes Sports-Hernia Surgery
Bo Bichette

Not Expecting to Need Offseason Knee Surgery
George Springer

Back in Leadoff Spot for Game 6 of World Series
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Returns At UFC Vegas 110
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Set For Co-Main Event
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Themba Gorimbo

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Jeremiah Wells

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Yadier del Valle

Looks To Remain Undefeated
CFB

Arizona State Quarterback Sam Leavitt Out for the Season
Isaac Dulgarian

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Daniel Frunza

Looks For His First UFC Win
Charles Radtke

Looks To Bounce Back
Allan Nascimento

Set To Open Up UFC Vegas 110 Main Card
Cody Durden

In Dire Need Of Victory
George Springer

"Strong Possibility" That George Springer Returns in Game 6 of World Series
Bryce Miller

Not Expected to Need Elbow Surgery
Washington Nationals

Nationals Finalizing a Deal to Hire Blake Butera as Next Manager
CFB

Arch Manning Listed as Questionable for Vanderbilt Matchup
CFB

Arion Carter Listed as Questionable Ahead of Oklahoma Matchup
Minnesota Twins

Twins Name Derek Shelton as Their New Manager
CFB

Jordyn Tyson Questionable for Iowa State Matchup with Hamstring Injury
George Springer

Not in the Lineup for Game 4 of World Series
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Pulled Early in Game 3 With Side Injury
Baltimore Orioles

Orioles Finalizing Deal to Hire Craig Albernaz as the Next Manager
William Byron

Dominates at Martinsville and Advances to the Championship Round
Kyle Larson

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Ryan Blaney

Falls Short of the Victory and Title Contention at Martinsville
Chase Elliott

Eliminated From 2025 Title Contention Despite Strong Martinsville Run

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