🖥 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE THANKS
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Overrated, Underrated: Week Two

Prior to the season's commencement, I offered up a pair of players who could have been selected later in drafts as cheaper, yet comparable, alternatives to more highly-touted players. To continue the same train of thought, I will provide, on a weekly basis, underrated alternatives to overrated players.

Aside from the first week of baseball providing us historic performances in the most unexpected packages -- not to mention a slew of season-jeopardizing injuries -- it also offered some insight to how certain players might be deployed, specifically in part-time or platoon duty. However, some players just plain suck or don't have the upside to warrant high ownership rates.

Enjoy a little bit of both. FYI: all ownership numbers are current as of April 10.

 

In the Outfield

OVERVALUED: Randal Grichuk, STL OF
62% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Domingo Santana, MIL OF
15% owned, per Fleaflicker

Grichuk has already ceded three of six possible starts to Jeremy Hazelbaker, so his value can't be considered anything but tenuous at this point. But this goes beyond playing time issues. The small-sample-size microscope has put Grichuk's dubious contact skills on blast. His 30-home run pace last year obscured the flimsiness of his horrific 31.4% strikeout rate (K%) and meager 6.3% walk rate (BB%). A lone single and eight strikeouts through 18 plate appearances, however, tends to change things.

Again, we're talking small samples here, but they seem particularly telling here. Pitchers fool Grichuk, seducing swings and misses on pitches outside the zone at a rate that almost paces the entire league. The most critical point: this isn't different from last year. Grichuk is still Grichuk, but when the power isn't there, he's borderline unusuable.

Enter Santana. He actually profiles quite similarly to Grichuk: power, speed, serious contact issues. In fact, Santana's contact issues might be worse than Grichuk's. What Santana has going for him, however, is the propensity to take a walk every now and then.

In fact, Santana and Grichuk could not be trending farther away from each other. Whereas Grichuk's 37.0% chase rate (as of April 10, per PITCHf/x) actively ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball, Santana's leads the pack at a minuscule 5.7%. Yes, yes, it's a small sample size, but Santana's eye precedes those of Christian Yelich and Martin Prado, whose respective plate disciplines are the stuff of legends.

Perhaps the learning curve won't be so kind on Santana once pitchers read the book on him. That number could skyrocket any day now. But, for now, Santana seems to know his way around the strike zone, and that makes him a much more capable threat to make good on his otherwise low draft price than Grichuk on his much higher price.

Grichuk will run enough to make himself at least marginally valuable when the power vanishes for extended durations. And, when the power does emerge, he becomes a dream to own. But the contact issues, until they are rectified, will put a firm cailing on Grichuk's upside. Meanwhile, Santana is Grichuk, so to speak, but with better plate discipline. Until further notice, that elevates both his floor and ceiling quite a bit.

 

On the Mound

OVERVALUED: Mike Leake, STL SP
73% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Kenta Maeda, LAD SP
40% owned, per Fleaflicker

Can I be frank with you? This is weird. Honestly, I don't understand why Leake is owned in so many leagues. By ownership rates, he's essentially a top-50 starter. Only once in the last four years has Leake finished inside the top 200 players overall -- which, in 2016, is about where the 55th starter was drafted on average.

Anyway, Leake is overvalued. I won't say much more about that. His upside is intolerably low, no matter how pretty his walk and ground ball rates are. Most of you will have likely have jumped ship after his monstrosity of a season debut anyway.

Maeda is being treated like a top-60 option -- although, like Leake, I'm sure that will change following Maeda's stateside debut. Maeda is an unknown quality, relative to not only Mike Leake but also literally anyone else pitching in the league. He has no minor-league tMarack record -- only his reputation as an elite strike-thrower in the Korean Baseball Organization.

That might be enough, though. His pinpoint command could make him a FIP golden child because of excellent walk and ground ball rates despite what could ultimately be a pedestrian K-rate. His ceiling could look like countryman Hisashi Iwakuma, a similarly excellent control artist who twice ranked among the top 75 players overall prior to his injury-shortened 2015 season. (And, even in the aforementioned injury-shortened season, Iwakuma finished 189th -- better than any of Leake's single-season finishes dating back to 2012.)

Maeda's ceiling is decidedly higher than Leake's, with the distinct possibility that all of Maeda's important metrics -- strikeouts, walks, ground balls -- trump Leake's in a full season, making him a simply better and more effective pitcher. That Maeda starts every five days for the contending Dodgers should only be more of a boon to his value. A bearish assessment could peg Maeda for a top-50 starter, but that would already exceed anything one could reasonably expect from Leake.

 

Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)

Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-55" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Woody Marks

Questionable to Return in Week 15 With Ankle Injury
Bam Knight

Carted Off, Questionable To Return With Ankle Injury
Joel Embiid

Questionable Versus Atlanta
Jarrett Allen

Expected to Return on Sunday
Rome Odunze

Ruled Out Before Kickoff
Puka Nacua

Rams Prioritizing Puka Nacua Extension
Collin Sexton

Unavailable Against Cleveland
Khris Middleton

Still Sidelined Versus Pacers
Alexandre Sarr

Out Again on Sunday
Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Inactive for Week 15 Against Giants
Quentin Johnston

Sitting Out With Groin Injury in Week 15
Deebo Samuel Sr.

Active for Week 15 Against Giants
Rome Odunze

Officially Active for Week 15 Against Browns
De'Von Achane

Cleared to Play Against Steelers in Week 15
Ayo Dosunmu

Unlikely to Play vs. Pelicans
Tyrese Maxey

Trending Toward Second Straight Absence
LaMelo Ball

Misses Third Straight Game
Kristaps Porzingis

Remains Out Versus 76ers
Drew Eubanks

To Miss Time With Thumb Fracture
Evan Mobley

Sidelined 2-4 Weeks With Grade 1 Calf Strain
Jake Ferguson

Expected to Play in Week 15
Chris Rodriguez Jr.

is a Game-Time Decision for Week 15
Rome Odunze

Bears Remain Optimistic That Rome Odunze Will Play Against Browns
Christian McCaffrey

Trending Toward Playing in Week 15
Davante Adams

Expected to Suit Up Against Lions
Josh Jacobs

Expected to Play in Week 15
Viktor Arvidsson

Not Expected to Play Sunday
Elias Pettersson

Unavailable Sunday
Jonas Brodin

to Miss Second Consecutive Game Sunday
Emil Lilleberg

Exits Early Saturday
Will Smith

Hurt in Saturday's Victory
Pavel Dorofeyev

Exits Win With Injury
Jalen Suggs

Injured on Saturday Night, Leaves Arena in a Wheelchair
Daniel Jones

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to be Ready for Training Camp
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on Reserve/Left Squad List, Out for the Season
Christian McCaffrey

Expected to Play in Week 15
Haydn Fleury

Cleared to Play
Simon Nemec

to Miss "Some Time"
Jake Evans

Back for Canadiens Saturday
Ilya Lyubushkin

Returns to Stars Lineup Saturday
Roope Hintz

Good to Go Saturday
Charlie Lindgren

Activated From Injured Reserve
Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Available Against Oilers
William Nylander

a Game-Time Decision Saturday
Brandon Aiyuk

49ers' "Optimism Has Run Out" on Brandon Aiyuk
Philip Rivers

Will Start on Sunday Against the Seahawks
Jorge Polanco

Agrees to Two-Year Deal With Mets
De'Von Achane

Expected to Play Monday Night
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Return to South Carolina in 2026
Cason Wallace

Off Injury Report Saturday
Keyonte George

Erupts for Career-High 39 Points Against Memphis
Bones Hyland

Exits Early With Knee Contusion
Isaiah Joe

To Miss Fourth Straight Game
Isaiah Hartenstein

Removed From Injury Report
Austin Reaves

To Be Re-Evaluated In One Week With Calf Strain
Logan O'Connor

Still Not Ready for Season Debut
Lukas Dostal

Activated From Injured Reserve
NJ

Arseni Gritsyuk Ruled Out for Weekend's Action
Connor Bedard

Ruled Out for Saturday
Zeev Buium

Canucks Acquire Zeev Buium From Wild
Marco Rossi

Moves to Vancouver
Quinn Hughes

Traded to WIld
Joel Embiid

Available Against Indiana
Ja Morant

Back on Friday Night
Tre Jones

is Returning on Friday
CFB

Washington State Expected to Hire Kirby Moore as Next Head Coach
CFB

Kyle Whittingham Stepping Down as Utah Head Coach
Manel Kape

Set For UFC Vegas 112 Main Event
Brandon Royval

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 112
Kevin Vallejos

Set For His Third UFC Fight
Giga Chikadze

In Dire Need Of Victory
Cesar Almeida

Set To Welcome Cezary Oleksiejczuk To The UFC
Cezary Oleksiejczuk

Set To Make His UFC Debut
Maikel Garcia

Royals Agree on Five-Year Extension
Melquizael Costa

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Looks to Win Second Consecutive Fights
Marcus Buchecha

Looks To Bounce Back
Kennedy Nzechukwu

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 112
King Green

Returns At UFC Vegas 112
Lance Gibson jr

Lance Gibson Jr. Set To Open Up UFC Vegas 112 Main Card
CFB

Sherrone Moore Charged with Home Invasion, Among Other Charges
CFB

Freddie Kitchens Fired from North Carolina Coaching Staff
CFB

Bryce Underwood Could Leave Michigan Without Buyout
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Padres Not Considering Trading Fernando Tatis Jr.
Tarik Skubal

Tigers Engaged in "Serious Talks" Around Trading Tarik Skubal at the Winter Meetings
CFB

Chris Brazzell II Declaring for NFL Draft
CFB

Fernando Mendoza Named AP College Football Player of the Year
Raisel Iglesias

to Remain the Braves Closer
Robert Suarez

Agrees on Three-Year Deal With Braves
CFB

Sherrone Moore Remains in Police Custody
CFB

Joe Klanderman Joining Baylor Coaching Staff
CFB

Kentucky Hiring Jay Bateman as Next Defensive Coordinator
Si Woo Kim

Closes 2025 With Strong Finish Among Putting Woes
Akshay Bhatia

Looks to Rebound in 2026 After Down Year Off the Tee
Brian Harman

2025 Season a Step Back Despite Spring Win
Sam Burns

' Elite Putting Headlines a Solid 2025 Season
Sepp Straka

Ends Stellar 2025 Campaign on a High Note
Robert MacIntyre

Closes Out a Steady 2025 Campaign
CFB

Chip Kelly Interviews for Georgia Tech Offensive Coordinator Job
CFB

Louisville Receiver Chris Bell has a Torn ACL
Min Woo Lee

Breaks Through to Win in Texas This Year
PGA

Alex Noren Wins Twice on European Tour This Year
Wyndham Clark

has Up-and-Down 2025 Golf Season
CFB

Michigan Fires Head Coach Sherrone Moore
Corey Conners

Comes Close to Winning Again in Very Good 2025
Justin Rose

Turns Back the Clock in 2025
CFB

Jim Knowles Expected to be Hired as Tennessee's Defensive Coordinator
Harris English

Enjoys Solid Finish at Hero World Challenge
CFB

Defensive Coordinator Jim Knowles Not Being Retained at Penn State
CFB

Indiana's Stephen Daley Done for Season After Post-Game Injury
Pete Alonso

Orioles Finalizing Five-Year Deal
Kyle Finnegan

Tigers, Kyle Finnegan Agree on Two-Year Deal
Bo Bichette

Red Sox Out on Bo Bichette For Now
Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies Extend Manager Rob Thomson Through 2027 Season
Michael King

the Mets' Top Rotation Target?
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Could Move Back to Leadoff Spot
CFB

Florida, Wisconsin Among Suitors for QB Transfer Kenny Minchey
CFB

Bryan Harsin, Justin Wilcox Candidates for Washington State Head Coach Job?
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Agrees to Deal With the Dodgers
Kyle Schwarber

Returning to Phillies on Five-Year Deal
CFB

Ole Miss Hiring John David Baker as Offensive Coordinator
CFB

Ty Howle the Top Target for Virginia Tech Offensive Coordinator Job
Shohei Ohtani

to be Used More as Traditional Starting Pitcher Next Year
Yordan Alvarez

to Become Full-Time DH in 2026?
Mason Miller

Padres Plan to Keep Mason Miller in the Bullpen
Ranger Suárez

Orioles Interested in Signing Ranger Suarez
Anthony Volpe

Yankees Don't Expect Anthony Volpe to be Ready in April
Gerrit Cole

Targeting a Return in May/June

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP