🖥 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Overrated, Underrated: Week Two

Prior to the season's commencement, I offered up a pair of players who could have been selected later in drafts as cheaper, yet comparable, alternatives to more highly-touted players. To continue the same train of thought, I will provide, on a weekly basis, underrated alternatives to overrated players.

Aside from the first week of baseball providing us historic performances in the most unexpected packages -- not to mention a slew of season-jeopardizing injuries -- it also offered some insight to how certain players might be deployed, specifically in part-time or platoon duty. However, some players just plain suck or don't have the upside to warrant high ownership rates.

Enjoy a little bit of both. FYI: all ownership numbers are current as of April 10.

 

In the Outfield

OVERVALUED: Randal Grichuk, STL OF
62% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Domingo Santana, MIL OF
15% owned, per Fleaflicker

Grichuk has already ceded three of six possible starts to Jeremy Hazelbaker, so his value can't be considered anything but tenuous at this point. But this goes beyond playing time issues. The small-sample-size microscope has put Grichuk's dubious contact skills on blast. His 30-home run pace last year obscured the flimsiness of his horrific 31.4% strikeout rate (K%) and meager 6.3% walk rate (BB%). A lone single and eight strikeouts through 18 plate appearances, however, tends to change things.

Again, we're talking small samples here, but they seem particularly telling here. Pitchers fool Grichuk, seducing swings and misses on pitches outside the zone at a rate that almost paces the entire league. The most critical point: this isn't different from last year. Grichuk is still Grichuk, but when the power isn't there, he's borderline unusuable.

Enter Santana. He actually profiles quite similarly to Grichuk: power, speed, serious contact issues. In fact, Santana's contact issues might be worse than Grichuk's. What Santana has going for him, however, is the propensity to take a walk every now and then.

In fact, Santana and Grichuk could not be trending farther away from each other. Whereas Grichuk's 37.0% chase rate (as of April 10, per PITCHf/x) actively ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball, Santana's leads the pack at a minuscule 5.7%. Yes, yes, it's a small sample size, but Santana's eye precedes those of Christian Yelich and Martin Prado, whose respective plate disciplines are the stuff of legends.

Perhaps the learning curve won't be so kind on Santana once pitchers read the book on him. That number could skyrocket any day now. But, for now, Santana seems to know his way around the strike zone, and that makes him a much more capable threat to make good on his otherwise low draft price than Grichuk on his much higher price.

Grichuk will run enough to make himself at least marginally valuable when the power vanishes for extended durations. And, when the power does emerge, he becomes a dream to own. But the contact issues, until they are rectified, will put a firm cailing on Grichuk's upside. Meanwhile, Santana is Grichuk, so to speak, but with better plate discipline. Until further notice, that elevates both his floor and ceiling quite a bit.

 

On the Mound

OVERVALUED: Mike Leake, STL SP
73% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Kenta Maeda, LAD SP
40% owned, per Fleaflicker

Can I be frank with you? This is weird. Honestly, I don't understand why Leake is owned in so many leagues. By ownership rates, he's essentially a top-50 starter. Only once in the last four years has Leake finished inside the top 200 players overall -- which, in 2016, is about where the 55th starter was drafted on average.

Anyway, Leake is overvalued. I won't say much more about that. His upside is intolerably low, no matter how pretty his walk and ground ball rates are. Most of you will have likely have jumped ship after his monstrosity of a season debut anyway.

Maeda is being treated like a top-60 option -- although, like Leake, I'm sure that will change following Maeda's stateside debut. Maeda is an unknown quality, relative to not only Mike Leake but also literally anyone else pitching in the league. He has no minor-league tMarack record -- only his reputation as an elite strike-thrower in the Korean Baseball Organization.

That might be enough, though. His pinpoint command could make him a FIP golden child because of excellent walk and ground ball rates despite what could ultimately be a pedestrian K-rate. His ceiling could look like countryman Hisashi Iwakuma, a similarly excellent control artist who twice ranked among the top 75 players overall prior to his injury-shortened 2015 season. (And, even in the aforementioned injury-shortened season, Iwakuma finished 189th -- better than any of Leake's single-season finishes dating back to 2012.)

Maeda's ceiling is decidedly higher than Leake's, with the distinct possibility that all of Maeda's important metrics -- strikeouts, walks, ground balls -- trump Leake's in a full season, making him a simply better and more effective pitcher. That Maeda starts every five days for the contending Dodgers should only be more of a boon to his value. A bearish assessment could peg Maeda for a top-50 starter, but that would already exceed anything one could reasonably expect from Leake.

 

Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)

Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-55" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Zay Flowers

Goes Off for 138 Yards, Two Touchdowns in Loss
Bo Bichette

Phillies Have Interest in Bo Bichette
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Dominates in Week 18 Win
Cameron Ward

Believed to Have Grade 3 AC Joint Sprain in Right Shoulder
Colston Loveland

Leads Bears in Targets, Receptions, Receiving Yards in Week 18
Santi Aldama

Available on Sunday Evening
Ja Morant

Downgraded on Sunday Night
Puka Nacua

Finishes the Regular Season as Top-Scoring Receiver
Atlanta Falcons

Falcons Fire Raheem Morris and Terry Fontenot
David Njoku

Wants to Re-Sign with Browns
Ray Davis

Runs Wild in Final Game of Regular Season
Matthew Stafford

Strengthens MVP Candidacy in Win Over Cardinals
Mitchell Trubisky

Comes Off Bench, Throws for Four Touchdowns
Rhamondre Stevenson

Explodes for Three Touchdowns in Huge Week 18
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Good to Go Against Sacramento
Trae Young

Won't Play on Monday Night
Grayson Allen

Still Out on Sunday Night
Indianapolis Colts

Colts to Bring Back Shane Steichen and Chris Ballard for 2026
Kansas City Royals

Matt Quatraro Signs Three-Year Extension With Royals
Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Catches Eight Passes in Dominant Outing Sunday
Logan Stanley

to Sit Out One Game With Suspension
TOR

Chris Tanev Could Be Done for Rest of Regular Season
Sean Monahan

Expected to Return Tuesday
Alexander Wennberg

Lands Three-Year Extension
Alec Pierce

Makes Several Big Catches Before Ejection
John Beecher

Handed One-Game Suspension
Devon Toews

Unavailable Sunday
Seth Jones

Out Against Avalanche
Josh Allen

Plays One Snap in Week 18
Myles Garrett

Breaks All-Time Single-Season Sack Record
Jaylen Waddle

Officially Sidelined for Season Finale
De'Von Achane

Officially Inactive Against Patriots in Week 18
Dalton Kincaid

Suiting Up Against Jets in Week 18
Kyren Williams

Suiting Up Against Cardinals on Sunday
Davante Adams

Won't Play Against Cardinals in Week 18
Jamal Murray

Will Play on Sunday
Christian Braun

Will Play on Sunday
Aaron Gordon

Will Play on Sunday
Ja Morant

Questionable Against the Lakers
Michael Porter Jr.

Off Injury Report, Set to Face Nuggets
Jalen Suggs

Ruled Out for Sunday, No Timetable for Return
Caris LeVert

Ruled Out Against Cavaliers
Jarrett Allen

Ruled Out on Sunday Afternoon
CFB

Transfer QB Billy Edwards Commits to North Carolina
CFB

Sam Leavitt Visiting Texas Tech on Saturday
Jamal Murray

Expected to Play Against Nets
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Listed as Probable for Sunday
Tobias Harris

Out at Least Two Weeks with Hip Sprain
Jalen Duren

to Miss at Least One Week with Ankle Injury
Vince Williams Jr.

Misses Eighth Straight Game
Maxime Raynaud

Cleared to Play Sunday After Knee Scare
Isaiah Hartenstein

Remains Out Versus Suns
Nathan MacKinnon

Takes Over Scoring Lead With Four-Point Effort
Herbert Jones

Misses Seventh Straight Game
Nikita Kucherov

Bags Five Points Against Sharks
Darren Raddysh

Celebrates Hat Trick in Big Win
Jordan Binnington

Logs First Shutout of Season
Auston Matthews

Becomes Maple Leafs' All-Time Goals Leader
Jake McCabe

Exits Loss Early
Tom Wilson

Escapes Serious Injury
Joel Kiviranta

Misses Road Trip
Gavin Brindley

Out Saturday
Casey DeSmith

Granted Leave of Absence
Tanner Jeannot

Remains Absent Saturday
Trevor Moore

Won't Play Saturday Night
Shayne Gostisbehere

Set to Return Saturday
William Nylander

Misses Fourth Straight Game
CFB

DJ Lagway Expected To Visit Florida State
Kyle Tucker

Blue Jays "Remain the Favorite" to Sign Kyle Tucker
CFB

Joey Aguilar Undergoes Surgery to Remove Tumor on Friday
CFB

Texas the "Team to Beat" for Transfer Running Back Isaac Brown
CFB

Rocco Becht to Follow Matt Campbell to Penn State?
CFB

Texas Targeting Cam Coleman in Transfer Portal
CFB

Former Texas Running Back CJ Baxter Visiting Kentucky
CFB

Beau Pribula Visiting Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech
Bo Bichette

Yankees Showing Interest in Bo Bichette
Houston Astros

Astros Sign Tatsuya Imai to Three-Year Deal
CFB

Lane Kiffin Interested in Sam Leavitt, Brendan Sorsby at LSU
CFB

Deuce Knight Officially Entering Transfer Portal
CFB

Kewan Lacy Expected to Be Full-Go Against Georgia
CFB

Chip Kelly Named Northwestern Offensive Coordinator

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP