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Overrated, Underrated: Week Two

Prior to the season's commencement, I offered up a pair of players who could have been selected later in drafts as cheaper, yet comparable, alternatives to more highly-touted players. To continue the same train of thought, I will provide, on a weekly basis, underrated alternatives to overrated players.

Aside from the first week of baseball providing us historic performances in the most unexpected packages -- not to mention a slew of season-jeopardizing injuries -- it also offered some insight to how certain players might be deployed, specifically in part-time or platoon duty. However, some players just plain suck or don't have the upside to warrant high ownership rates.

Enjoy a little bit of both. FYI: all ownership numbers are current as of April 10.

 

In the Outfield

OVERVALUED: Randal Grichuk, STL OF
62% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Domingo Santana, MIL OF
15% owned, per Fleaflicker

Grichuk has already ceded three of six possible starts to Jeremy Hazelbaker, so his value can't be considered anything but tenuous at this point. But this goes beyond playing time issues. The small-sample-size microscope has put Grichuk's dubious contact skills on blast. His 30-home run pace last year obscured the flimsiness of his horrific 31.4% strikeout rate (K%) and meager 6.3% walk rate (BB%). A lone single and eight strikeouts through 18 plate appearances, however, tends to change things.

Again, we're talking small samples here, but they seem particularly telling here. Pitchers fool Grichuk, seducing swings and misses on pitches outside the zone at a rate that almost paces the entire league. The most critical point: this isn't different from last year. Grichuk is still Grichuk, but when the power isn't there, he's borderline unusuable.

Enter Santana. He actually profiles quite similarly to Grichuk: power, speed, serious contact issues. In fact, Santana's contact issues might be worse than Grichuk's. What Santana has going for him, however, is the propensity to take a walk every now and then.

In fact, Santana and Grichuk could not be trending farther away from each other. Whereas Grichuk's 37.0% chase rate (as of April 10, per PITCHf/x) actively ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball, Santana's leads the pack at a minuscule 5.7%. Yes, yes, it's a small sample size, but Santana's eye precedes those of Christian Yelich and Martin Prado, whose respective plate disciplines are the stuff of legends.

Perhaps the learning curve won't be so kind on Santana once pitchers read the book on him. That number could skyrocket any day now. But, for now, Santana seems to know his way around the strike zone, and that makes him a much more capable threat to make good on his otherwise low draft price than Grichuk on his much higher price.

Grichuk will run enough to make himself at least marginally valuable when the power vanishes for extended durations. And, when the power does emerge, he becomes a dream to own. But the contact issues, until they are rectified, will put a firm cailing on Grichuk's upside. Meanwhile, Santana is Grichuk, so to speak, but with better plate discipline. Until further notice, that elevates both his floor and ceiling quite a bit.

 

On the Mound

OVERVALUED: Mike Leake, STL SP
73% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Kenta Maeda, LAD SP
40% owned, per Fleaflicker

Can I be frank with you? This is weird. Honestly, I don't understand why Leake is owned in so many leagues. By ownership rates, he's essentially a top-50 starter. Only once in the last four years has Leake finished inside the top 200 players overall -- which, in 2016, is about where the 55th starter was drafted on average.

Anyway, Leake is overvalued. I won't say much more about that. His upside is intolerably low, no matter how pretty his walk and ground ball rates are. Most of you will have likely have jumped ship after his monstrosity of a season debut anyway.

Maeda is being treated like a top-60 option -- although, like Leake, I'm sure that will change following Maeda's stateside debut. Maeda is an unknown quality, relative to not only Mike Leake but also literally anyone else pitching in the league. He has no minor-league tMarack record -- only his reputation as an elite strike-thrower in the Korean Baseball Organization.

That might be enough, though. His pinpoint command could make him a FIP golden child because of excellent walk and ground ball rates despite what could ultimately be a pedestrian K-rate. His ceiling could look like countryman Hisashi Iwakuma, a similarly excellent control artist who twice ranked among the top 75 players overall prior to his injury-shortened 2015 season. (And, even in the aforementioned injury-shortened season, Iwakuma finished 189th -- better than any of Leake's single-season finishes dating back to 2012.)

Maeda's ceiling is decidedly higher than Leake's, with the distinct possibility that all of Maeda's important metrics -- strikeouts, walks, ground balls -- trump Leake's in a full season, making him a simply better and more effective pitcher. That Maeda starts every five days for the contending Dodgers should only be more of a boon to his value. A bearish assessment could peg Maeda for a top-50 starter, but that would already exceed anything one could reasonably expect from Leake.

 

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Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Marvin Bagley III

to Miss Second Straight Game
Ryan Rollins

Good to Go Tuesday
Klay Thompson

is Resting on Tuesday
Kyle Kuzma

Returns Tuesday
Seiya Suzuki

to Begin a Rehab Assignment Soon
Simon Holmstrom

Misses Tuesday's Action
Marcus Smart

Out Against Cavs
Alexandre Carrier

Out 2-4 Weeks With Upper-Body Injury
Jordan Spieth

a Horse for Course History at TPC San Antonio
Mason Lohrei

Misses Second Consecutive Game Tuesday
Max Strus

Active on Tuesday
Tyler Myers

Unavailable Against Bruins
Robert MacIntyre

Has One Flaw to Overcome at Valero Texas Open to be a Must-Play
Michael Bunting

to Sit Out Tuesday's Game
Maverick McNealy

In Exceptional Form This Season
Michael Thorbjornsen

Playing Well But Still Searching For A Win
Hideki Matsuyama

Playing Well Heading to the Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim

Heads to Valero Texas Open For Final Tune-Up Before Masters
Sam Merrill

Unavailable Against Lakers
Nikita Kucherov

a Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Evgeni Malkin

Ready for Action Tuesday
Jarrett Allen

Slated to Suit Up on Tuesday
Sam Bennett

Rejoins Panthers Lineup Tuesday
Jaylen Wells

Has Successful Surgery on Tuesday
Franz Wagner

Trending Toward Return
Stephen Curry

Likely Sidelined for Two More Games
Cody Ponce

Diagnosed With ACL Sprain, to Miss "Significant Time"
Tank Dell

Uncertain for OTAs, But Expected to Play in 2026
Alvin Kamara

Saints Still Want to Address Alvin Kamara's Contract
George Pickens

Cowboys Have "Long-Term Plans" for George Pickens
Kyle Pitts Sr.

Falcons Not Ruling Out Potential Kyle Pitts Sr. Trade
Jordan James

the "Front-Runner" to be Top Backup RB
A.J. Brown

Patriots Still Not Ruling Out an A.J. Brown Trade
Aaron Rodgers

Planning to Re-Sign With Steelers?
Seattle Seahawks

Mike Washington Jr. Would Fill a Big Need for Seahawks
Los Angeles Rams

Kenyon Sadiq a Good Fit With the Rams?
Green Bay Packers

Packers to "Strip Everything Down" on Offense
Anthony Richardson Sr.

to Stay With Colts?
NFL

Ty Simpson has Visits With Cardinals, Dolphins, Browns
Aaron Rodgers

Mike McCarthy, Aaron Rodgers Touch Base
Cameron Ward

Mechanical Tweaks are Focused on his Footwork
Jaylen Waddle

to Play the Slot And Outside
Geno Smith

Aaron Glenn Thinks Geno Smith Will Lead Jets to "Promised Land"
Mason Taylor

Jets Expecting a "Hell of a Year" From Mason Taylor
Collin Morikawa

Withdraws From Valero Texas Open
PGA

Stephan Jaegar Still Looking For Consistency at Valero Texas Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

is Red-Hot Coming to TPC San Antonio
Tony Finau

a Risky Proposition at Valero Texas Open
Ludvig Aberg

Looks to Shake Off Collapse at Valero Texas Open
Jacob deGrom

Cleared for Season Debut on Tuesday
Colt Emerson

Signs an Eight-Year Extension with Mariners
James Conner

Role Threatened in Arizona?
Devin Neal

Dynasty Value Slipping Away?
Josh Downs

Headed for More Targets in 2026?
Mike Evans

Still Has WR1 Upside in New Home
William Nylander

Records Four Points Against Ducks
Macklin Celebrini

Becomes Sixth Teenager With 100-Point Season
Jaden Schwartz

Could Return Tuesday
Jordan Greenway

Available Tuesday
Jake Sanderson

Remains Out Tuesday
Cutter Gauthier

Exits Early Against Maple Leafs
Cale Makar

Sustains Upper-Body Injury Monday
Josh Minott

Active on Tuesday
Myles Turner

Available Against Mavericks
Kyle Kuzma

Probable Tuesday
Ryan Rollins

Likely to Return Tuesday
Bobby Portis

Remains Out Tuesday
Dillon Brooks

Ready to Return Tuesday
Patrick Rodgers

Needs to Make More Birdies in San Antonio
Jaden McDaniels

Considered Week-to-Week
Sepp Straka

Seeks Opportunity in San Antonio This Weekend
Nick Taylor

Could Again Struggle at the Valero Texas Open
Keith Mitchell

Sets Up Solidly for TPC San Antonio
Jose Altuve

Tallies Four Hits, Two Homers in Big Night
Rickie Fowler

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Valero Texas Open
Nazem Kadri

Scores Twice in Blowout Victory
Anthony Mantha

has Three-Point Performance on Monday
Miguel Vargas

Hits Grand Slam, Drives in Six in Win Over Miami
Jerami Grant

to Miss Second Straight Game
Anthony Gill

Good to Go Monday
Bilal Coulibaly

Will Not Play Monday
Tanner Bibee

to Start on Tuesday Against Dodgers
Aliaksei Protas

Won't Play Tuesday
Pavel Mintyukov

Returns to Action Monday
Radko Gudas

Ready to Face Maple Leafs
John Klingberg

to Remain Sidelined Monday
Matt McCarty

Seeking to Play into the Weekend in San Antonio
Brian Harman

Looking to Continue Form From The Players Championship
Steven Fisk

Attempting to String Better Rounds Together at San Antonio
Luke Clanton

Still Having Rough Time Contending at Events
Max Homa

Looks to Get Back on Track at Valero Texas Open
Chase Elliott

Takes Advantage of Pit Strategies for Second Career Martinsville Win
Denny Hamlin

Dominates but Finishes Second at Martinsville
Joey Logano

Bounces Back with Third-Place Finish at Martinsville
Ty Gibbs

Gains his Fourth Top-Five Finish of the Season at Martinsville
William Byron

Scores Another Top-Five Finish at Martinsville
Joe Pyfer

Extends His Winning Streak
Israel Adesanya

Loses Fourth Consecutive Fight
Maycee Barber

Suffers Her First Knockout Loss
Alexa Grasso

Scores Highlight-Reel Knockout
Niko Price

Retires After UFC Seattle Loss
Michael Chiesa

Victorious In His Retirement Fight
Julian Erosa

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Lerryan Douglas

Scores First-Round Knockout Win In His UFC Debut
Alex Bregman

Clobbers First Two Homers in Sunday's Loss at Wrigley
Yandy Díaz

Yandy Diaz Records Five Hits, Drives in Four in Win Over Cardinals
Kyle Larson

Is Likely to Pay Off for DFS at Martinsville
Christopher Bell

Could Have Another Top-10 Performance At Martinsville
William Byron

Is A Threat to Win Again at Martinsville
Chase Elliott

is A Solid DFS Option for Martinsville Lineups
Chase Briscoe

has Plenty of Upside for DFS Lineups at Martinsville
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Unlikely to See High-Leverage Opportunities in Near Future
Jacob deGrom

Feels "Much Better," Hopeful he Can Start This Week
Ty Gibbs

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Ty Gibbs at Martinsville?
Ryan Preece

Is A Solid DFS Option for Martinsville Lineups
Josh Berry

Could Josh Berry Pay Off for Tournament DFS Lineups At Martinsville?
Carson Hocevar

May be Too Inconsistent to Start in Martinsville DFS Lineups
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering for DFS At Martinsville?
Denny Hamlin

the Favorite to Win at Martinsville
Ryan Blaney

Should Contend at Martinsville
Tyler Reddick

Should Come Back Down to Earth at Martinsville
Joey Logano

Will Be Strong at Martinsville
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Looking to Rebound at Martinsville
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Showing Progress, Qualifies Fifth at Martinsville
Dylan Cease

Fans 12 in Blue Jays Debut on Saturday
Andrew Vaughn

Needs Hand Surgery, Expected to be Out 4-6 Weeks
Jacob deGrom

"Confident" he Will Make his Next Start
Jacob deGrom

Scratched From Saturday's Start Due to Neck Stiffness
Jeferson Quero

Brewers Calling Up Catching Prospect Jeferson Quero
Deyvison De Los Santos

Marlins Promote Deyvison De Los Santos to Major Leagues
Shea Langeliers

Hits Two Home Runs on Opening Day
Kevin Gausman

Picks Up No-Decision But Strikes Out 11 on Opening Day
Tanner Bibee

Day-to-Day, Could Make his Next Start
Shane Baz

Orioles Agree to Five-Year Extension
Joe Pyfer

Set For UFC Seattle Main Event
Israel Adesanya

Returns At UFC Seattle
Maycee Barber

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak To Eight
Alexa Grasso

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Niko Price

In Dire Need Of Victory
Michael Chiesa

Set For Retirement Fight
Lerryan Douglas

Set For His UFC Debut
Julian Erosa

Looks To Bounce Back
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