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Overrated, Underrated: Week Two

Prior to the season's commencement, I offered up a pair of players who could have been selected later in drafts as cheaper, yet comparable, alternatives to more highly-touted players. To continue the same train of thought, I will provide, on a weekly basis, underrated alternatives to overrated players.

Aside from the first week of baseball providing us historic performances in the most unexpected packages -- not to mention a slew of season-jeopardizing injuries -- it also offered some insight to how certain players might be deployed, specifically in part-time or platoon duty. However, some players just plain suck or don't have the upside to warrant high ownership rates.

Enjoy a little bit of both. FYI: all ownership numbers are current as of April 10.

 

In the Outfield

OVERVALUED: Randal Grichuk, STL OF
62% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Domingo Santana, MIL OF
15% owned, per Fleaflicker

Grichuk has already ceded three of six possible starts to Jeremy Hazelbaker, so his value can't be considered anything but tenuous at this point. But this goes beyond playing time issues. The small-sample-size microscope has put Grichuk's dubious contact skills on blast. His 30-home run pace last year obscured the flimsiness of his horrific 31.4% strikeout rate (K%) and meager 6.3% walk rate (BB%). A lone single and eight strikeouts through 18 plate appearances, however, tends to change things.

Again, we're talking small samples here, but they seem particularly telling here. Pitchers fool Grichuk, seducing swings and misses on pitches outside the zone at a rate that almost paces the entire league. The most critical point: this isn't different from last year. Grichuk is still Grichuk, but when the power isn't there, he's borderline unusuable.

Enter Santana. He actually profiles quite similarly to Grichuk: power, speed, serious contact issues. In fact, Santana's contact issues might be worse than Grichuk's. What Santana has going for him, however, is the propensity to take a walk every now and then.

In fact, Santana and Grichuk could not be trending farther away from each other. Whereas Grichuk's 37.0% chase rate (as of April 10, per PITCHf/x) actively ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball, Santana's leads the pack at a minuscule 5.7%. Yes, yes, it's a small sample size, but Santana's eye precedes those of Christian Yelich and Martin Prado, whose respective plate disciplines are the stuff of legends.

Perhaps the learning curve won't be so kind on Santana once pitchers read the book on him. That number could skyrocket any day now. But, for now, Santana seems to know his way around the strike zone, and that makes him a much more capable threat to make good on his otherwise low draft price than Grichuk on his much higher price.

Grichuk will run enough to make himself at least marginally valuable when the power vanishes for extended durations. And, when the power does emerge, he becomes a dream to own. But the contact issues, until they are rectified, will put a firm cailing on Grichuk's upside. Meanwhile, Santana is Grichuk, so to speak, but with better plate discipline. Until further notice, that elevates both his floor and ceiling quite a bit.

 

On the Mound

OVERVALUED: Mike Leake, STL SP
73% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Kenta Maeda, LAD SP
40% owned, per Fleaflicker

Can I be frank with you? This is weird. Honestly, I don't understand why Leake is owned in so many leagues. By ownership rates, he's essentially a top-50 starter. Only once in the last four years has Leake finished inside the top 200 players overall -- which, in 2016, is about where the 55th starter was drafted on average.

Anyway, Leake is overvalued. I won't say much more about that. His upside is intolerably low, no matter how pretty his walk and ground ball rates are. Most of you will have likely have jumped ship after his monstrosity of a season debut anyway.

Maeda is being treated like a top-60 option -- although, like Leake, I'm sure that will change following Maeda's stateside debut. Maeda is an unknown quality, relative to not only Mike Leake but also literally anyone else pitching in the league. He has no minor-league tMarack record -- only his reputation as an elite strike-thrower in the Korean Baseball Organization.

That might be enough, though. His pinpoint command could make him a FIP golden child because of excellent walk and ground ball rates despite what could ultimately be a pedestrian K-rate. His ceiling could look like countryman Hisashi Iwakuma, a similarly excellent control artist who twice ranked among the top 75 players overall prior to his injury-shortened 2015 season. (And, even in the aforementioned injury-shortened season, Iwakuma finished 189th -- better than any of Leake's single-season finishes dating back to 2012.)

Maeda's ceiling is decidedly higher than Leake's, with the distinct possibility that all of Maeda's important metrics -- strikeouts, walks, ground balls -- trump Leake's in a full season, making him a simply better and more effective pitcher. That Maeda starts every five days for the contending Dodgers should only be more of a boon to his value. A bearish assessment could peg Maeda for a top-50 starter, but that would already exceed anything one could reasonably expect from Leake.

 

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Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

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Import Your Leagues
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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Play in Week 13
Bucky Irving

Trending Toward Suiting Up
Chris Olave

Should Play Vs. Dolphins
P.J. Washington

Ruled Out Versus Clippers
Trae Young

"Progressing Well," Will be Re-Evaluated in Two Weeks
Isaiah Hartenstein

Sidelined a Minimum of 10-14 Days
Daniel Gafford

Resting Against Clippers
Jalen Duren

Won't Play Versus Miami
Warren Foegele

Not Ready to Return Saturday
Simon Benoit

Won't Play Saturday
Henri Jokiharju

Lands on Injured Reserve
Anthony Davis

Ruled Out on Saturday
Zack Wheeler

Likely to Return in May
Pavel Zacha

a Game-Time Call Saturday
Ryan Helsley

Agrees to Two-Year Deal With Orioles
David Pastrnak

Out for Second Consecutive Game
William Nylander

Available Saturday
Shedeur Sanders

Could Start for Browns for the Rest of the Season
Kyle Palmieri

Out for 6-8 Months With Torn ACL
Darren Waller

Activated from Injured Reserve, Will Play in Week 13
Amon-Ra St. Brown

"Day-to-Day" With Ankle Injury, Status for Week 14 Unclear
Neemias Queta

Uncertain for Saturday's Game in Minnesota
Derrick White

Expected to Suit Up Versus Timberwolves
Jaylen Brown

Might Miss Saturday's Game
Tyler Warren

Added to Injury Report, Questionable With Illness
Baker Mayfield

Expected to Play in Week 13
Jake Walman

Sidelined for Third Consecutive Game
Jack Roslovic

to Miss Two Weeks
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

to Return Saturday
Mattias Samuelsson

in Concussion Protocol
Kyle Palmieri

Sustains Lower-Body Injury
Lukas Dostal

Ruled Out for 2-3 Weeks
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Test Confirm Low-Ankle Sprain for Amon-Ra St. Brown
Anthony Davis

Available, Will be on a Minutes Restriction
Kyle Monangai

Leads Bears Backfield in Impressive Week 13 Performance
D'Andre Swift

Goes Over 100 Rushing Yards, Finds End Zone in Win Over Eagles
A.J. Brown

Goes Over 100 Yards Again, Scores Twice on Friday
Kyshawn George

Returns to Lineup After One-Game Absence
Paul George

Set To Start Friday Against Nets
Kevin Huerter

Set to Return Against Charlotte
Jarrett Allen

Back in Action on Friday
Coby White

Cleared for Action on Friday
Nikola Vučević

Nikola Vucevic Suiting Up Against Charlotte
Trey Murphy III

Uncertain For Saturday's Matchup
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Returning Versus Knicks
Jaden Ivey

Set To Play Against Orlando
Adem Bona

Back on Friday Night
Andrew Nembhard

Won't Play Versus Washington
Kenneth Walker III

Good to Go for Week 13
Brian Thomas Jr.

Good to Go Sunday
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Questionable for Week 13
Bucky Irving

Fully Practices Friday, Listed as Questionable for Week 13
Omarion Hampton

Ruled Out for Week 13
Baker Mayfield

Practices in Full Friday, Listed as Questionable for Week 13
Kirill Marchenko

Misses Third Straight Game
Drake London

Officially Ruled Out for Week 13
Jaden Schwartz

to Miss Six Weeks
Chris Olave

Officially Questionable to Play in Week 13 Due to Back Injury
Andre Burakovsky

Set to End Three-Game Absence
Alvin Kamara

Will Not Play in Week 13
William Nylander

Out Friday With Illness
Ryan Hartman

Returns to Action Friday
Brady Tkachuk

Officially Available Friday
Mike Matheson

Signs Five-Year Extension
Brady Tkachuk

Aims to Return Friday
Dylan Cease

Agrees With Blue Jays on Seven-Year, $210 Million Deal
Anthony Rendon

Angels Could Buy Out Final Year of Anthony Rendon's Contract
Josh Hader

Says his Shoulder is "Back to Normal"
Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks "Actively Listening" on Ketel Marte
J.T. Realmuto

Red Sox Showing Interest in J.T. Realmuto
Sonny Gray

Red Sox Acquire Sonny Gray From the Cardinals
CFB

Jeremiah Smith, Makai Lemon, Skyler Bell Named Biletnikoff Award Finalists
Shohei Ohtani

to Play for Team Japan in 2026 World Baseball Classic
Colorado Rockies

Warren Schaeffer to Stick Around as Rockies Manager in 2026
CFB

Chris Bell Out for Rivalry Matchup Against Kentucky

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