🦃 BLACK FRIDAY - TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE THANKS
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Overrated, Underrated: Week Two

Prior to the season's commencement, I offered up a pair of players who could have been selected later in drafts as cheaper, yet comparable, alternatives to more highly-touted players. To continue the same train of thought, I will provide, on a weekly basis, underrated alternatives to overrated players.

Aside from the first week of baseball providing us historic performances in the most unexpected packages -- not to mention a slew of season-jeopardizing injuries -- it also offered some insight to how certain players might be deployed, specifically in part-time or platoon duty. However, some players just plain suck or don't have the upside to warrant high ownership rates.

Enjoy a little bit of both. FYI: all ownership numbers are current as of April 10.

 

In the Outfield

OVERVALUED: Randal Grichuk, STL OF
62% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Domingo Santana, MIL OF
15% owned, per Fleaflicker

Grichuk has already ceded three of six possible starts to Jeremy Hazelbaker, so his value can't be considered anything but tenuous at this point. But this goes beyond playing time issues. The small-sample-size microscope has put Grichuk's dubious contact skills on blast. His 30-home run pace last year obscured the flimsiness of his horrific 31.4% strikeout rate (K%) and meager 6.3% walk rate (BB%). A lone single and eight strikeouts through 18 plate appearances, however, tends to change things.

Again, we're talking small samples here, but they seem particularly telling here. Pitchers fool Grichuk, seducing swings and misses on pitches outside the zone at a rate that almost paces the entire league. The most critical point: this isn't different from last year. Grichuk is still Grichuk, but when the power isn't there, he's borderline unusuable.

Enter Santana. He actually profiles quite similarly to Grichuk: power, speed, serious contact issues. In fact, Santana's contact issues might be worse than Grichuk's. What Santana has going for him, however, is the propensity to take a walk every now and then.

In fact, Santana and Grichuk could not be trending farther away from each other. Whereas Grichuk's 37.0% chase rate (as of April 10, per PITCHf/x) actively ranks among the worst in Major League Baseball, Santana's leads the pack at a minuscule 5.7%. Yes, yes, it's a small sample size, but Santana's eye precedes those of Christian Yelich and Martin Prado, whose respective plate disciplines are the stuff of legends.

Perhaps the learning curve won't be so kind on Santana once pitchers read the book on him. That number could skyrocket any day now. But, for now, Santana seems to know his way around the strike zone, and that makes him a much more capable threat to make good on his otherwise low draft price than Grichuk on his much higher price.

Grichuk will run enough to make himself at least marginally valuable when the power vanishes for extended durations. And, when the power does emerge, he becomes a dream to own. But the contact issues, until they are rectified, will put a firm cailing on Grichuk's upside. Meanwhile, Santana is Grichuk, so to speak, but with better plate discipline. Until further notice, that elevates both his floor and ceiling quite a bit.

 

On the Mound

OVERVALUED: Mike Leake, STL SP
73% owned, per Fleaflicker

UNDERVALUED: Kenta Maeda, LAD SP
40% owned, per Fleaflicker

Can I be frank with you? This is weird. Honestly, I don't understand why Leake is owned in so many leagues. By ownership rates, he's essentially a top-50 starter. Only once in the last four years has Leake finished inside the top 200 players overall -- which, in 2016, is about where the 55th starter was drafted on average.

Anyway, Leake is overvalued. I won't say much more about that. His upside is intolerably low, no matter how pretty his walk and ground ball rates are. Most of you will have likely have jumped ship after his monstrosity of a season debut anyway.

Maeda is being treated like a top-60 option -- although, like Leake, I'm sure that will change following Maeda's stateside debut. Maeda is an unknown quality, relative to not only Mike Leake but also literally anyone else pitching in the league. He has no minor-league tMarack record -- only his reputation as an elite strike-thrower in the Korean Baseball Organization.

That might be enough, though. His pinpoint command could make him a FIP golden child because of excellent walk and ground ball rates despite what could ultimately be a pedestrian K-rate. His ceiling could look like countryman Hisashi Iwakuma, a similarly excellent control artist who twice ranked among the top 75 players overall prior to his injury-shortened 2015 season. (And, even in the aforementioned injury-shortened season, Iwakuma finished 189th -- better than any of Leake's single-season finishes dating back to 2012.)

Maeda's ceiling is decidedly higher than Leake's, with the distinct possibility that all of Maeda's important metrics -- strikeouts, walks, ground balls -- trump Leake's in a full season, making him a simply better and more effective pitcher. That Maeda starts every five days for the contending Dodgers should only be more of a boon to his value. A bearish assessment could peg Maeda for a top-50 starter, but that would already exceed anything one could reasonably expect from Leake.

 

Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)

Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-55" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Test Confirm Low-Ankle Sprain for Amon-Ra St. Brown
Anthony Davis

Available, Will be on a Minutes Restriction
Kyle Monangai

Leads Bears Backfield in Impressive Week 13 Performance
D'Andre Swift

Goes Over 100 Rushing Yards, Finds End Zone in Win Over Eagles
A.J. Brown

Goes Over 100 Yards Again, Scores Twice on Friday
Kyshawn George

Returns to Lineup After One-Game Absence
Paul George

Set To Start Friday Against Nets
Kevin Huerter

Set to Return Against Charlotte
Jarrett Allen

Back in Action on Friday
Coby White

Cleared for Action on Friday
Nikola Vučević

Nikola Vucevic Suiting Up Against Charlotte
Trey Murphy III

Uncertain For Saturday's Matchup
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Returning Versus Knicks
Jaden Ivey

Set To Play Against Orlando
Adem Bona

Back on Friday Night
Andrew Nembhard

Won't Play Versus Washington
De'Anthony Melton

Eyeing Road-Trip Return
Kristaps Porzingis

Sidelined on Friday Night
Kenneth Walker III

Good to Go for Week 13
Jonathan Kuminga

Questionable Ahead Of Pelicans Matchup
Andrew Wiggins

On Track To Suit Up Saturday
Norman Powell

Likely Available Against Detroit
Brian Thomas Jr.

Good to Go Sunday
Isaiah Hartenstein

Won't Play on Friday Night
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Questionable for Week 13
Bucky Irving

Fully Practices Friday, Listed as Questionable for Week 13
Omarion Hampton

Ruled Out for Week 13
Baker Mayfield

Practices in Full Friday, Listed as Questionable for Week 13
Kirill Marchenko

Misses Third Straight Game
Drake London

Officially Ruled Out for Week 13
Jaden Schwartz

to Miss Six Weeks
Chris Olave

Officially Questionable to Play in Week 13 Due to Back Injury
Andre Burakovsky

Set to End Three-Game Absence
Alvin Kamara

Will Not Play in Week 13
William Nylander

Out Friday With Illness
J.J. McCarthy

Officially Ruled Out for Week 13
Ryan Hartman

Returns to Action Friday
Brady Tkachuk

Officially Available Friday
Ja'Marr Chase

Helps Bengals Snap Four-Game Skid on Thanksgiving
Mike Matheson

Signs Five-Year Extension
C.J. Stroud

Will Play on Sunday
Anthony Davis

Reportedly Set to Return on Friday Night
DK Metcalf

Good to Go for Week 13
Aaron Rodgers

Will Play in Week 13
Daniel Jones

Will be Ready to Go on Sunday
Terry McLaurin

Will be Active Against Broncos
Jayden Daniels

Officially Out for Week 13
Jarrett Allen

Nearing Return From Finger Injury
Andrew Nembhard

Questionable Entering Friday's Contest
Brady Tkachuk

Aims to Return Friday
Matthew Tkachuk

Resumes Skating
Jakob Chychrun

Stretches Point Streak to Nine Games
Matej Blumel

Expected to Miss Some Time
Marcus Foligno

Exits With Injury Wednesday
Jaden Schwartz

Suffers Lower-Body Injury Wednesday
Lukas Dostal

Out Wednesday Night
Sean Durzi

Available Against Canadiens
Thomas Chabot

to Remain Out Wednesday
Jared McCann

Expected to Rejoin Kraken Lineup Wednesday
Andre Burakovsky

a Game-Time Decision Wednesday
Mikko Rantanen

Returns to Stars Lineup Wednesday
Mark Stone

Ready to Return Wednesday
Dylan Cease

Agrees With Blue Jays on Seven-Year, $210 Million Deal
Anthony Rendon

Angels Could Buy Out Final Year of Anthony Rendon's Contract
Josh Hader

Says his Shoulder is "Back to Normal"
Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks "Actively Listening" on Ketel Marte
Josh Norris

Nearing Return
J.T. Realmuto

Red Sox Showing Interest in J.T. Realmuto
Sonny Gray

Red Sox Acquire Sonny Gray From the Cardinals
CFB

Jeremiah Smith, Makai Lemon, Skyler Bell Named Biletnikoff Award Finalists
Shohei Ohtani

to Play for Team Japan in 2026 World Baseball Classic
Colorado Rockies

Warren Schaeffer to Stick Around as Rockies Manager in 2026
CFB

Chris Bell Out for Rivalry Matchup Against Kentucky
Ryan Helsley

Tigers Eyeing Ryan Helsley as a Starter
Dan Hooker

Suffers Second-Round Submission Loss
Marcus Semien

Shipped to the Mets on Sunday
Arman Tsarukyan

Gets Submission Win
Brandon Nimmo

Traded to Texas
Belal Muhammad

Loses Back-to-Back Fights
Belal Muhammad

Ian Machado Garry Outpoints Belal Muhammad
Alonzo Menifield

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Volkan Oezdemir

Gets Back In The Win Column
Jack Hermansson

Gets Knocked Out
Jack Hermansson

Myktybek Orolbai Knocks Out Jack Hermansson
Shamil Gaziev

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Shines At UFC Qatar
Tagir Ulanbekov

Suffers Third-Round Submission Loss
Kyoji Horiguchi

Makes Triumphant UFC Return

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP