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Ryan's list of overrated and underrated CBB teams heading into the tournament. Who are the most likely teams to disappoint or shock the country throughout March Madness?
The 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket is finally here. About 395,000 minutes of Division 1 basketball were played over almost ten thousand games since the season tipped off in early March. All culminating in this beautiful event that is truly one of a kind.
Here it is: Tournament bracket WITH tip times AND locations AND TV channels. pic.twitter.com/3R96FKFdCI
— Matt Norlander (@MattNorlander) March 18, 2024
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The NCAA Tournament officially begins with the first four in Dayton on Tues/Wed, but the real action starts on Thursday. Brackets are open now until Thursday at 12:15 ET, so now is the time to cram in some research to secure those bragging rights for picking the juicy upsets.
To inform your bracket predictions, here are some teams that could disappoint and some that may surprise. It's time for the last article of a year-long series: Overrated and Underrated College Basketball Teams.
Overrated College Basketball Teams For March Madness
Iowa State Cyclones: No. 2 Seed, East Region
The selection committee made some questionable decisions when seeding this tournament, and one of them was ranking Iowa State as the lowest 2-seed after they blitzed the #1 team in the country -- Houston -- in the Big 12 tournament final. Based on their resume, Iowa State should have been considered for that last No. 1 seed, not almost left off the 2-seed line completely.
With that said, I am still not a believer in the Cyclones to make a deep run in this tournament. For one, this is easily the best region with three other major conference tournament winners in UConn, Auburn, and Illinois (all top 10 KenPom Teams). BYU is also by far the highest-rated 6 seed on KenPom (#16 overall). There are also two 2023 Final Four squads sitting there that returned a ton of production from last year. Simply put, the East is tough. Iowa State can force a lot of turnovers and play tough defense but the other side of the ball is worrisome. #55 in offensive efficiency does not bode well for tournament play. It would not shock me in the slightest if Tucker Devries and Drake or even Wazzu knocked them out in the second round.
In the KenPom era, no top 2 seed that started the season unranked has EVER made the Final Four. They average <2 wins per tournament.
Most recent were Marquette & Purdue last year.
Iowa State playing at an unreal level, but will they break that streak/curse?
— Ryan Hammer🔨 (@ryanhammer09) March 17, 2024
Clemson Tigers: No. 6 seed, West Region
I was a huge Tigers proponent coming into the year as one of the better under-the-radar squads, and while they didn't necessarily disappoint, I am not picking them to advance past the first round this year. Me and all of America it seems like.
PJ Hall is one of the most versatile and physically imposing bigs in the sport, but New Mexico has an advantage on the perimeter. The Lobos play lightning quick and can blitz the opposition with their athletic guards, while also taking exceptional care of the basketball. Clemson has a veteran backcourt with Chase Hunter and Joe Girard, but NM is hard to prepare for, especially with their fast pace (8th in tempo). Give me the Lobos to pull off the "upset" here.
Lower seeded teams favored in their first round NCAA Tournament matchups, per Vegas:
No. 9 Michigan State -1.5 vs. No. 8 Mississippi State
No. 10 Nevada -1.5 vs. No. 7 Dayton
No. 9 TCU -3.5 vs. No. 8 Utah State
No. 11 (!!) New Mexico -2.5 vs. No. 6 Clemson.— Sam Vecenie (@Sam_Vecenie) March 18, 2024
Baylor Bears: No. 3 seed, West Region
Maybe the least discussed top-3 seed in the bracket, the Bears had another exceptional year under head coach Scott Drew, finishing third in the Big 12. Baylor has the guard play that can take a team far in March. A great distributor/floor general in RayJ Dennis who can command the offense. A freshman microwave scorer in Ja'Kobe Walter and some solid depth and shooting from the wing in Langston Love and Jayden Nunn.
The biggest reason I don't love the Bears is because even with all that great guard play and scoring from the backcourt, they turn the ball over too frequently. This team is also not very disciplined defensively and fouls quite a bit while giving up easy buckets often. I wouldn't necessarily be surprised if they ended up in the Elite Eight given the weaker West region, but Baylor is by far my least favorite of the three seeds.
Underrated College Basketball Teams For March Madness
Drake Bulldogs: No. 10 seed, East Region
If you don't know the name Tucker Devries, now is the time to get hip. He's a problem. The junior is a 6-7 wing who can put it on the deck but also pull up from 25 feet without hesitation. He's coached by his father, Darian Devries, who has the Bulldogs in the NCAA tournament for the second straight year.
Last season Drake was one of my favorite upset picks in the first round, but narrowly lost to eventual Final Four participant, Miami. The Bulldogs actually gave Miami their toughest game of the tournament up until they were blitzed by UConn. This team only returned two starters, but one of them is Devries and 275lb forward Darnell Brodie who is extremely hard to keep out of the lane. With an efficient offense that ranks 27th in Effective FG% and top-15 in turnover rate, I like Drake to get past Washington State and give Iowa State some major trouble. Devries has some darling potential. Watch out.
TUCKER DEVRIES HAVE A DAY 🤩
He has 24 points for @DrakeBulldogsMB in the MVC Championship. pic.twitter.com/488u3I89sT
— CBS Sports College Basketball 🏀 (@CBSSportsCBB) March 10, 2024
James Madison Dukes: No. 12 seed, South Region
Every year there are a few trendy upset picks, and while New Mexico is by far the most popular of the first round, this might be a close second. The fact that JMU (#59 KenPom, #52 NET) was seeded below Duquesne (#86 KenPom, #80 NET) is criminal, but ultimately both of these teams are playing eerily similar squads. Wisconsin is 17th overall in KenPom, with a #13 offensive rating and #47 defensive rating, while BYU is 16th overall with a #11 offensive rating and #48 defensive rating.
Wisconsin did just beat almighty Purdue and Zach Edey in the B1G tournament, but they have a lot of questionable losses/dud performances against good teams as well. One area they really struggle in is three-point defense (#345), and that is where the Dukes can inflict damage. JMU is a top-50 three-point shooting team in the country and also doesn't turn the ball over often, something that might hurt an extremely slow team like the Badgers. Terrance Edwards Jr. and T.J. Bickerstaff propel the Dukes to their first NCAA tournament win since 1983.
Don’t sleep on these teams - McNeese - James Madison - Samford - Charleston though not household names they are well coached & have players that have a winners mentally. They r the reason y the next 3 weeks are called “MARCH MADNESS” Baby ! 🏀🏀🏀🏀
— Dick Vitale (@DickieV) March 19, 2024
Auburn Tigers: No. 4 seed, East Region
Maybe the most under-seeded team of the past few years, Auburn is an elite squad among all of the credible college basketball metric sites. #4 in KenPom, #2 in EvanMiya, #5 in Barttorvik, #4 in Haslametrics. They are even #5 in the NET, a tool the NCAA developed to help the selection committee evaluate teams. The Tigers also just dominated an SEC tournament field that featured eight NCAA tournament teams. The committee made some really head-scratching seeding decisions this year, but this one takes the cake.
A lot of "experts" are picking Bruce Pearl and the Tigers to drop their first-round game against Yale, a team that needed a buzzer-beater to knock off a 13-17 Brown University. I don't see that happening. Auburn is going to suffocate the Bulldogs defensively and speed up the game to a degree that Yale cannot match. The only way James Jones and Co. will have a shot is if Danny Wolf can get Johnni Broome in foul trouble and Yale pounds the offensive glass. I've got Auburn advancing to the Sweet 16 somewhat easily where they get a chance to avenge their electric double OT loss to UConn in the Battle 4 Atlantis a few years back.
THIS IS AUBURN BASKETBALL🔥😤
pic.twitter.com/WygtTYmAyZ— The Field of 68 (@TheFieldOf68) March 17, 2024
