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Football does not make sense. No matter how much you handicap, the amount of stats you can find, even watching tape, it sometimes does not matter. On paper, there was the slimmest chance for the Patriots to beat the Bills. If they played 100 times, the Bills would have won upwards of 70 times. But it didn't matter on Sunday because New England, who looked like the worst team in football for weeks, had everything clicking. Any given Sunday.
It was a bad week for public bettors and survivor pools. The two picks I gave out - the Bills and Packers - both lost. I ended up going with Green Bay. I had a very weird feeling about the Bills and after they lost, I thought I was a genius. But then the Packers were shut out in the first half, and made a great comeback before the defense allowed the Broncos to easily go down the field to make the game-winning field goal. Green Bay was about 10 yards away from getting in field goal range themselves but a holding penalty did them in.
A quick note before going into Week 8. How in the world are entrants still forgetting to submit a pick? There were three people in my pool this past week who forgot to make a pick. The deadline to enter the pick is Sunday at 1 p.m. It's online so it can be done remotely and e-mail reminders are sent out. It boggles the mind.
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NFL Teams Favored by 6+ in Week 8
- Dolphins (-9.5) vs. Patriots
- Chargers (-8.5) vs. Bears
- Ravens (-8.5) at Cardinals
- Bills (-8.5) vs. Bucs
- Lions (-8) vs. Raiders
- Chiefs (-7.5) at Broncos
- Eagles (-6.5) at Commanders
- Cowboys (-6.5) vs. Rams
Teams on bye: None. It's a full slate of games.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 8
Dolphins (-9.5) vs. Patriots
You probably have used Miami already but if you did not, they're a top option this week. Miami destroys bad teams, but when they play good teams like the Eagles, they struggle. But the Dolphins are so much faster than the Patriots. Unless New England can establish the run and control the clock like Philly did, they have no shot.
Dolphins 31 - Patriots 14
Bills (-8.5) vs. Bucs
This line would have been about 10 prior to Buffalo's loss to New England. The Bills are hampered by injuries on the defensive side but that should not matter against Tampa. The Bucs are 23rd in yards per play, and 26th in points including scoring an average of 15 points in the last three games and one touchdown in the last two.
The Bills are in a good buy-low spot here. Off of that New England loss, this is a great get-right spot at home on Thursday night. The Bucs should have lost to the Falcons by at beat 14 points but Atlanta fumbled at the one and then fumbled through the end zone. They allowed Desmond Ridder to throw for 250 yards, averaging 10 yards per attempt, a huge number. If that secondary can't get it together, get ready for a big night from Stefan Diggs.
Bills 31 - Bucs 17
Eagles (-6.5) at Commanders
Philadelphia beat Washington in overtime this year and last year in Philly, the Commanders ended the Eagles' unbeaten season. So I'm hoping the public plays too much into those matchups and this line stays right where it is.
It's not only that Washington struggles immensely on offense, 24th in yards per play, 20th in scoring, and allow 5.7 sacks per game, most in the league. Good luck stopping this defensive line.
But it's the running games on both sides of the ball that will be their demise. The Commanders allow 125 rushing yards per game, 22nd in the league and are 26th in rushing yards per game with 86. You can not beat the Eagles without stopping the run and especially not being able to maintain possession. The Eagles lead the league in time of possession with an average of 34 minutes per game. They wear you down in the second half with their rushing attack. And of course the tush push.
Eagles 28 - Commanders 17
Lions (-8) vs. Raiders
The Raiders are one of the five worst teams in football. Somehow they're 3-4 but those wins have come against the Broncos, Packers, and Patriots. They have not scored more than 21 points all season. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is always injured.
Their issues are also on the defensive side of the ball. They just were beat badly by Tyson Bagent and rank 27th in opponent yards per play. The Lions are well-rounded and two-dimensional on offense. They'll bounce back after a blowout loss.
Lions 27 - Raiders 13
Chiefs -7.5 at Broncos
Jordan Love could not take advantage of the horrible Broncos defense, but Patrick Mahomes surely will. These teams did play two weeks ago and the Chiefs won 19-8. But expect Andy Reid to have a much better game plan for this game.
Denver will also need to be much better in the red zone. They settled for two red zone field goals in the first half. Russell Wilson needs to find a way to get it in the end zone because field goals don't work against the Chiefs.
Chiefs 28 - Broncos 17
Cowboys (-6.5) vs. Rams
As I've said in recent columns, the Rams can only play one good half. It happened again Sunday. They led 9-3 at halftime before losing 24-17. They even led 17-10 in the second half before having a missed field goal, punt and a punt to end the game. They just can't hold up for a full 60 minutes. And if they start off slow Sunday against the Cowboys, Dallas will run away with it.
Dallas is the good bad team. They beat bad teams, but can't play the good ones like we saw against the 49ers. The Cowboys are off a bye and will come out strong.
Cowboys 27 - Rams 17
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 8
Chargers (-8.5) vs. Bears
This looks so easy on paper. Justin Herbert and the dynamic Chargers against Tyson Bagent and the Bears. How could Los Angeles possibly lose this game on Sunday night? Weird things happen with the Chargers. Look at Sunday. They were down 24-17 at halftime before going interception, three consecutive three-and-outs, and then an interception to end the game. With all the talent the Chargers have, for them to not score one second half point is very alarming. Something is not right with the Chargers.
They'll also be a wildly popular survivor play this week. If you can avoid using them, I would.
Chargers 23 - Bears 20
Ravens (-8.5) at Cardinals
Each week there has been a team the pundits are saying is a legitimate Super Bowl contender. This past week was the Lions, they then were crushed. Two weeks ago was the Eagles, and they proceeded to lose to the Jets. The Dolphins were the hottest team after scoring 70 points in Week 3 and the following week they were blown out by the Bills. Now the Ravens are being talked about ad nauseam. And it makes sense, Lamar Jackson just had a career game. he threw for 357 yards on 27 attempts, three touchdowns, and running for an additional touchdown.
Arizona is another team that just can't play a full 60 minutes. Maybe they get off to a hot start and are able to keep some of that momentum into the second half. The Ravens should win, but there are other options this week.
Ravens 24 - Cardinals 20
NFL Best Bets for Week 8
- Packers (+1) vs. Vikings - I'm a sucker for Green Bay. But Minnesota is being talked about as a playoff threat because of their win against the 49ers Monday night. This has all the makings of a typical Kirk Cousins four interception game with the Packers winning so ugly, you can't believe they did.
- Titans (+2.5) vs. Falcons - Tennessee is the home team off a bye. People are getting behind Atlanta after their win Sunday against the Bucs. Ryan Tannehill is injured and reports are saying the Titans could use both Malik Willis and rookie Will Levis. Doesn't this have the feel of an ugly game, a Mike Vrabel special?
- Eagles (-6.5) at Commanders
2023 Season Running Totals
- Last week: 1-2
- 2023 season: 12-9
- 2022 season: 28-23-3
- 2021 season: 27-26-1
- 2020 season: 24-27
- 2019 season: 23-26-2
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