Now the real season begins. Bill Parcells and Cris Collinsworth believe when Thanksgiving arrives, football really begins. This is where teams separate themselves from the pack. Thursday is a loaded slate. Each game features a division winner. I will not be making selections in any of the Thursday games and I suggest you do the same. The Lions-Vikings will be a tight one in the fourth quarter, and the Lions will probably be trailing. The Redskins and Cowboys can both score a lot of points. And the Steelers defense is not a defense to ride on the road in primetime. These games will all be close so sit them out and enjoy as a fan. There are better games to choose from on Sunday.

I'm here, as always, to try and help you identify the best survivor pool targets and avoids for Week 12 of the NFL season. With some survivor pools requiring you choose two teams per week, I will be adding more picks! Good luck folks, now onto the picks.

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Top Survivor Picks for Week 12

@Bills -7 vs. Jaguars

Last week I picked against the Jaguars, saying, "It's more likely the Jaguars find a way to beat themselves than the Lions do. Also, have you seen Blake Bortles lately?" Well, Bortles threw a pick-six and an interception off a player's foot, again. The Lions were trailing in the fourth quarter, yet again, but the Jaguars found a way to shoot themselves in the foot.

Bortles is averaging 6.3 yards per attempt and only Brock Osweiler has been worse this year. He will be under extreme duress facing the league's best sack unit. The Jags running game won't be able to help Bortles. They have rushed for over 100 yards in three games all season and are about to face a Bills defense that allows four yards a carry, 12th in the league.

It's still crazy Tyrod Taylor has not thrown for 300 yards in a game all season. Good thing the Bills won't have to throw against a very underrated Jags pass defense to beat them. The Bills rushing attack will do the trick. The Bills lead the league in yards per carry, 5.3, and rushing yards per game, 159. The Jags defense somehow allowed only 14 rushing yards to Detroit, but that's an anomaly. The Jags allow 113 yards rushing per week. Even if LeSean McCoy can't play, the Bills will be fine. Additionally, the Jags are league worst in turnover differential, -15, while the Bills are fourth at plus eight. If it's a tight one down the stretch, the Jags will find a way to lose.

 

Dolphins -8 vs. 49ers

The Dolphins are rolling. They have won five in a row to put themselves in prime playoff position at 6-4. I'm a little nervous of a Dolphins letdown, but then I look at the opponent here. The 49ers allow 179 rushing yards per game. Wow. The Dolphins are averaging 118 rushing yards per game. During their five-game win streak, the Dolphins averaged 136.5 rushing yards and are plus seven in turnover differential.

The Dolphins defense has resurrected itself and will dare Colin Kaepernick to beat them with his arm. He throws for 191 yards per game with an 85 rating. I really don't see how the 49ers can travel east for an early kickoff and win.

 

Saints -7 vs. Rams

The Rams can't score enough to keep pace with the Saints. The Saints are third in points scored, 28.5 per game, while the Rams are dead last at 15. Even though the Rams are top-five against the run and pass, they can only bend so much before breaking. They were pitching a shutout this past Sunday, but gave up two late touchdowns and lost. Imagine having to play defense realizing two touchdowns conceded throughout the game will result in a loss. Well, that's what it's like to play with an anemic offense led by rookie Jared Goff, who moved the chains only 12 times Sunday.

 

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid for Week 12

@Raiders -3.5 vs. Panthers

The talking heads will be praising the 8-2 Raiders this week to no end. The offense may be superb, but their defense is a major liability. They are bottom five in passing yards against per game, 278, and bottom ten in defensive rushing, 116. They also are last in the league in sacks with 15, one less than the winless Browns.

Since the Panthers' bye, they are 3-1 with a much-improved defense. Prior to the bye week, the Panthers allowed Drew Brees to throw for 460 yards. Last week, Carolina held Brees to 264 yards. The rushing defense has been holding opponents to 82 yards per game, second best in the league.

I like how the Panthers will have 10 days to prepare for this matchup while the Raiders are on a short week.

 

@Cowboys -7 vs. Redskins

You don't want to ruin your Thanksgiving getting eliminated in this game. The stats don't really back me up here, except the Cowboys give up 263 yards per game through the air and are bottom five in sacks with 14. After seeing Kirk Cousins' long ball display Sunday night, I think Cousins could have his way with this secondary. He's already done it in Week 2, throwing for 350 yards in a loss. Two weeks ago Dallas allowed Ben Roethlisberger to throw for 400 yards. Besides those two games, there hasn't been a game where the Cowboys secondary was really tested. If Cousins has time to throw, this will be a shootout.