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Kipp Heisterman presents his expert NFL DFS prop picks for Super Bowl Sunday. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
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As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.
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Rams vs. Bengals: More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Matthew Stafford more than 280.5 passing yards and Joe Burrow more than 275.5 passing yards
The most likely scenario for the Rams in this game is to come out throwing the football. They will be facing a Bengals defense that allowed the 10th-fewest rushing yards to running backs on the season. While the Bengals have allowed nearly 5.6 yards per carry during the playoffs, they faced two stout rushing attacks in the Raiders and the Titans during the first two rounds while this is more of a finesse Rams' offense. The Bengals also allowed quarterbacks to throw for the sixth-most passing yards this season by allowing an average of 263 passing yards per game. Stafford has eclipsed this total in each of his previous two playoff games and also eclipsed it in 11 regular-season games.
My only concern with Burrow getting over the total in this one is the Bengals' offensive line matchup with the Rams' defensive line. They will provide plenty of pressure, which means Burrow will have to get rid of the ball and make decisions in a hurry. That being said, he was hurried regularly in the Divisional Round against the Titans as he was sacked nine times but still managed to throw for 348 passing yards. This Rams defense has been stout against the run all season as they allowed an average of just 3.7 yards per carry to backs during the regular season. They have also allowed just 126 total rushing yards to running backs through three playoff games. During the regular season, the Rams were beaten through the air quite a bit, however, as they allowed the ninth-most passing yards to quarterbacks on the season.
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Rams vs. Bengals: More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Joe Mixon more than 17.5 fantasy points and Odell Beckham Jr. more than 14.5 fantasy points
Mixon could be in line for a solid day in this game, especially in the passing game. Given that the Rams' pass rush should cause problems for the Bengals, Mixon could be the beneficiary of several dump-offs similar to the way he hauled in six of seven targets for 51 yards against the Titans. This is a Rams' defense that allowed over 21 fantasy points per game to running backs in 2021 as well. They allowed 11 rushing touchdowns and three receiving touchdowns to the position. They have also struggled against running backs out of the backfield in the playoffs as Leonard Fournette and Elijah Mitchell combined to haul in 12 receptions for 106 yards. Given the PPR format on MKF, Mixon could certainly get over this threshold.
OBJ might be one of my favorite guys to focus on in this Super Bowl. He has come on strong lately as he has earned 23 targets in the playoffs, including 19 targets in his previous two games. The whole world is going to be focusing on trying to stop Cooper Kupp, meanwhile, OBJ will be getting free regularly for Stafford to pepper with targets. The Bengals have struggled against wide receivers in these playoffs as they have allowed 66 receptions for 539 receiving yards and four touchdowns in their three playoff games. Beckham has eclipsed this total in two of the Rams' three playoff games while missing it by just 1.6 points in their game against the Buccaneers in the Divisional Round.
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Rams vs. Bengals: More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Cam Akers less than 60.5 receiving yards and Tee Higgins more than 68.5 receiving yards
Akers is going to be running against a tough Bengals front that allowed the 10th-fewest rushing yards to running backs on the season. Akers has seen 54 carries in three playoff games thus far and has only totaled 151 yards on the ground. He has yet to eclipse this total and is averaging just 2.8 yards per carry. While it is not likely, Darrell Henderson Jr. could still return and take some snaps away from Akers, which is something to note. While I do not think this is a likely scenario, it is something to consider when looking at Akers' prop.
Tee Higgins should be set up for a solid game in this one as Ja'Marr Chase will likely be flanked by Rams' star cornerback, Jalen Ramsey. Higgins has been solid in the playoffs as he has seen a total of 19 targets while hauling in 13 passes for 196 receiving yards in his previous two games. He managed to get over this total in both of those games as well. On the season, Higgins managed to reach 70 receiving yards in six of his final nine games played while averaging over seven targets per game across that span.
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