NFL DFS: First Look of Week 3 - Totals, Salaries, Slates and more

September 17, 2024

Shaun Evans looks into the NFL DFS projections for Week 3 to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your FanDuel and DraftKings DFS lineups.

Week 3 of the NFL season is here and through two weeks, it has already been wild. We will be diving in and getting an early look at the action. See which teams and stacks stand out and where the data will point us to.

I'll be picking up where we left off last year and continuing the "first look" article. This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information during the week regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early as there is a lot of data to consume!

We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, September 22. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week and I hope it helps kick-start your research. Weeks 1 and 2 can get crazy as we think we know what to expect but usually the unexpected does happen. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get all of the premium NFL DFS tools to help you have a successful season.

Week 3 Vegas Totals and Team Data

In this section, we take a look at which teams should be expected to put up the most actual points this week (which usually means fantasy points, too). With it being Week 3, we will include some data from last season as well.

You shouldn't target ONLY the teams who are expected to score the most points, but the majority of your players are going to come from these teams each week. Deciding which offenses are worthy of stacking (and of course, how you are going to stack them) is the challenge!

Top Implied Team Totals for Week 3: Main Slate Only

1. Lions - 27.5
2. 49ers - 27.5
3. Cardinals - 24.5
4. Buccaneers/Cowboys/Ravens/Seahawks - 23.5
5. Browns/Raiders- 22.5

2024 Top-Scoring Offenses: Points Per Game

1. Saints - 45.5
2. Cardinals - 34.5
3. Eagles- 34
4. Bills - 32.5
5. Buccaneers - 28.5

2024 Stingiest Defenses: Points Allowed Per Game

1. Chargers - 6.5
2. Steelers - 8
3. Vikings - 11.5
4. Saints - 14.5
5. Patriots - 16.5

The Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers top the charts in Week 3 for implied totals and both come in at 27.5 points per game. Both teams will be looking to bounce back after losses in Week 2. The Lions should be the favorable stack, facing off against the Arizona Cardinals. The 49ers will get what could be a depleted Los Angeles Rams team, giving them a great chance to get the win.

The Las Vegas Raiders make an appearance in the Top 5 for implied team totals after a solid 26-23 victory over the Baltimore Ravens. Brock Bowers made his presence felt and should be on everyone's tight-end list for the upcoming week. The Seattle Seahawks offense is clicking as both DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 10 or more receptions for 100 receiving yards or more (the first time in Seahawks history).

Brock Bowers has 12 receptions for 125 yards. The most receiving yards in #Raiders history among tight ends in their first two career games 🤯#LVvsBAL | 📺 @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/xo9io48WXY

— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) September 15, 2024

Week 3 DFS Matchups

Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but some individual positional matchups as well. Rankings will be based on the small sample size that we have so far for the 2024 season.

Top-5 Matchups for Passing Offenses

(Yards Passing and Yards Allowed Passing ranks in parentheses)

1. Dallas (10) vs. Baltimore (32)
2. New Orleans (11) vs. Philadelphia (30)
3. Denver (20) vs. Tampa Bay (28)
4. Houston (12) vs. Minnesota (25)
5. San Francisco (4) vs. L.A. Rams (24)

Starting out, San Francisco is in a prime position to get back on track. The Rams' defense is allowing the ninth most passing yards so far through two weeks. The Cardinals' offense carved them up quickly in Week 2 which should be a good sign for a 49ers stack on Sunday.

The Dallas Cowboys also get a good matchup after a horrible loss to the New Orleans Saints. The Ravens are surprisingly giving up the most passing yards and their 0-2 start shows their struggles. Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb seemed to be back on track but it wasn't enough. Ceiling day for Lamb? Possibly.

While the Denver Broncos as a whole look horrible, the Buccaneers are allowing 242.5 passing yards through two games which could be a good sign for the offense. Would I overload on them? No, but they could be a sneaky stack to have some exposure to.

Top-5 Matchups for Rushing Offenses

1. Chicago (28) vs. Indianapolis (32)
2. San Francisco (111) vs. L.A. Rams (30)
3. Cleveland (20) vs. N.Y. Giants (27)
4. New Orleans (3) vs. Philadelphia (27)
5. Tampa Bay (23) vs. Denver (24)

The Chicago Bears offense is a complete mess but they have a great spot versus the Indianapolis Colts. While Josh Jacobs and the Green Bay Packers are a much better team than the Bears, it's hard to pass up on the backfield for Sunday. The ownership may come in low as many want to avoid the horrible offense currently.

The 49ers pop back up on another top-5 matchup list and Jordan Mason is showing he can do what Christian McCaffrey does. He will once again be good chalk to roll out as the young running back continues to shine in Shanahan's offense.

The New Orleans Saints and Alvin Kamara may have another field day versus the Eagles' defense. Kamara had three touchdowns in Week 2 and it only looks like the success of that offense will continue. They are averaging 45.5 points per game through the first two weeks and that seems slightly insane.

Alvin. Kamara. PERIOD. (@fedex) #NOvsDAL pic.twitter.com/5EQmiFwE1w

— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024

2023 Top-5 DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position

(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)

QB - Arizona (Goff), Tampa Bay (Nix), L.A. Rams (Purdy), San Francisco (Stafford), Houston (Darnold)

RB - Dallas (Henry), Tampa Bay (Williams), Carolina (Mattison), L.A. Rams (Mason), Miami (Walker or Charbonnet)

WR - Philadelphia (Shaheed/Olave), L.A. Rams (Aiyuk), San Francisco (Robinson), Baltimore (Lamb), Indianapolis (Moore)

TE - Carolina (Bowers), Baltimore (Ferguson/Schoonmaker), L.A. Rams (Kittle), Minnesota (Schultz), Seattle (Smith)

DEF - CAR (LV), NYG (CLE), LV (CAR), MIN (HOU), DEN (TB)

First off, we get another solid matchup for Las Vegas Raiders rookie Brock Bowers. Getting to go up against Carolina, we should see Bowers and Davante Adams have success once again on Sunday. The 49ers' players continue to pop up in almost every positional battle against the Los Angeles Rams. This makes it hard to fade them Sunday but they will be chalk.

Denver also pops up with Bo Nix and Javonte Williams. The question will be how much exposure do you want to them? That will be a true 'risk it for the biscuit' stack which I'm not fully set on.

The Dallas Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens game makes for a great game-stack if you are into that style of build. Both sides will have some great options to play in lineups.

Week 3 DFS Salary Analysis

If you play exclusively on FanDuel or DraftKings (unlike me), then you may not find this next part all that helpful. But for those of you who play on both sites, what I attempted to do here was to find which impact players were significantly cheaper on one site than the other.

And while you will probably end up playing a similar player pool on both sites, the point-per-dollar value of each player matters especially when making some tough decisions for your cash game build. Remember that projections are also going to vary from FanDuel to DraftKings, as DK uses full-PPR scoring as well as player performance bonuses.

To compare prices, I found the percentage of the salary cap that rostering each player costs (remember that DK uses a $50K salary cap, while FanDuel uses $60K). Both sites have the same roster build with nine roster spots.

FanDuel Values (FD, DK)

1. Zach Charbonnet ($6.7K vs. $6K) - Love Charbonnet if Kenneth Walker III is ruled out.
2. Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7.5K vs. $7.4K) - After the Week 2 performance, this could be a steal.
3. DJ Moore ($6.5K vs. $6.7K)
4. Sam Darnold ($7.1K vs. $5.5K)
5. Alexander Mattison ($5.7K vs. $5.4K)

DraftKings Values (DK, FD)

1. Brock Purdy ($6K vs. $7.4K) - Great bounceback spot.
2. D'Andre Swift ($5.6K vs. $6.3K)
3. Jameson Williams ($5.8K vs. $6.3K) - Hard to pass up with his momentum.
4. Malik Nabers ($6.4K vs. $7.1K) - I don't understand why Nabers isn't priced like Marvin Harrison Jr.
5. Jonnu Smith ($3.4K vs. $5K)

Cheap Stacks (DK, FD)

There are plenty of cheap value plays to fit around expensive stacks. As the pricing tightens up each week, I like to look for some of the cheapest viable stacks that feature the QB and one of their receivers (could be WR1, WR2, or TE1).

1. Minshew II - Bowers ($10.7K, $13.5K)
2. Purdy - Aiyuk ($13.1K, $15.1K)
3. Williams - Moore ($12.3K, $13.5K)
4. Watson - Jeudy ($10.7K, $13.1K)
5. Jones - Nabers ($11.7K, $13.9K)
6. Carr - Shaheed ($11.1K, $14.2K)

Notable Rookie Salaries (DK, FD)

1. Caleb Williams ($5.6K, $7K)
2. Bo Nix ($5.1 K, $6.5K)
3. Trey Benson ($5.1K, $4.9K)
4. Bucky Irving ($5.1K, $5.2K)
5. Trey Benson ($4.9K, $5K)
6. Blake Corum ($4.6K, $5K)
7. Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7.4K, $7.5K)
8. Malik Nabers ($6.4K, $7.1K)
9. Ladd McConkey ($5k, $5.7K)
10. Xavier Legette ($4.5K, $4.6K)
11. Rome Odunze ($4.2K, $6.1K)
12. Adonai Mitchell ($4K, $5.3K)
13. Brock Bowers ($5.4K, $6.3K)

Alright, that's it for Week 3 and my data dump! I took quite a bit of time to find some stats that I hope you find helpful so that you don't have to! Good luck and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!

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