NCAA Tournament Busts By Region - 2024 March Madness Predictions

March 18, 2024

Mark Kieffer's 2024 NCAA Tournament busts for March Madness. His overhyped teams can help you avoid pitfalls when filling out your 2024 tournament brackets.

The brackets are out and we are just a couple of days before March Madness tips off! Who doesn't love poring over brackets, joining office pools, and chopping it up with co-workers about some college basketball as we all try to (and fail) predict how it will all shake out?

I am no guru, but something I am pretty good at is finding which teams I think were underseeded and which were a little bit overseeded. This article is going to focus on the latter.

I will be providing you with my busts for the 2024 NCAA Tournament. These are teams I feel are overseeded because of how vulnerable they are. Be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and guides on how to fill out your brackets.

West Region Tournament Busts

(1) North Carolina 

They aren't a bad team and I like their draw. They should make the Sweet 16 easily. That being said, they could potentially face Alabama, a team with the second-best offensive efficiency in the country, or Saint Mary's, a team I liked before the brackets were released to make a run. The two seed in their bracket, Arizona, I think is better than them, too.

So while UNC could easily make the Sweet 16, would losing in the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight be a bust in the eyes of UNC fans and college basketball? Probably.

(3) Baylor  

Baylor does not defend well -- 64th in defensive efficiency. Their offense is great and they score from the three-point line. If they win in the first round, they will face Clemson/New Mexico. New Mexico is underseeded in my opinion and I could see them beating Baylor if they can get past Clemson.

South Region Tournament Busts

(2) Marquette

Marquette was overseeded. They lost to UConn three times, and also to Seton Hall/Providence/Butler. They have a 13 NET ranking. They should have been a four seed and are the weakest two seed in the tournament. I could see the winner of Boise State/Colorado knocking them off. If Florida gets hot, I could see them knocking Marquette off. I could see them not making it out of the first weekend.

(3) Kentucky

This bracket has a chance to get a little bit crazy. I really like Boise State and Colorado as teams that could make a little run. NC State winning five games in as many days is getting hot. To make an Elite Eight, Kentucky would have to weather that entire storm of potential Cinderellas. They would be favored in those games, but they would be closer than expected. Not to mention their defense is 108th and it's hard to really do something special when you can't defend.

East Region Tournament Busts

I don't see much in this region. (1) UConn, (2) Iowa State, (3) Illinois, and (4) Auburn are all top-10 teams to me. It's a shame only one will emerge to the Final Four. Auburn could be the best team of those four.

(1) UConn

Would losing to a four seed be considered a bust? UConn is first in offensive efficiency and 11th in defensive efficiency. They are a national title contender. Auburn is 10th in offensive efficiency and fourth in defensive efficiency, making them a national title contender, too.

(3) Illinois

I am going to make this really simple. They are 93rd in defensive efficiency and BYU is 11th in offensive efficiency as a six seed. If BYU can get past Duquesne, that's a trouble spot for Illinois.

Generally, the one, two, and three seeds were properly seeded and Auburn is underseeded and has a national title profile, just like UConn did last year. This could be a more chalky bracket and with 1-4 and 2-3 games that would be must-watch TV.

Midwest Region Tournament Busts

(1) Purdue

There is nothing glaringly wrong with Purdue, but they are going to be a potential bust every year until they are not. TCU is dangerous; they have wins over Houston and Baylor. Kansas and Gonzaga are on upset alert in the first round but Purdue is much better than them and the potential Cinderellas. They have a good path to an Elite Eight and should make the Final Four.... but until they do, I'm putting them on potential bust lists.

(2) Tennessee

Rick Barnes and March don't exactly go hand-in-hand. Tennessee is third in defensive efficiency and 29th in offensive efficiency. Similar to Purdue, until Rick Barnes gets a team deep in the tournament, they are easy to predict as getting upset.

This is the region that has the most potential for a Cinderella to make a Final Four.

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