NCAA Men's Basketball: Big East Tournament Predictions

Ryan runs through the Big East men's basketball tournament bracket, giving his predictions on each matchup. UConn has been dominant all year, but does anyone have the edge to unseat them?

The Big East tournament may have the most allure of all the major conferences given the intense rivalries and the fact that it takes place at "The World's Most Famous Arena" --  Madison Square Garden. While the dog days of the old Big East made it what it is, much of that energy still carries over today with several old rivalries remaining and some strong new additions.

This conference also has the most bubble implications at the moment, with one team in each of ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi's bubble watch categories. Seton Hall is "safe" in the Last Four Byes, with St. John's appearing in the Last Four in. Villanova finds themselves in the First Four Out, with Providence in the Next Four Out.

UConn has reigned hellfire upon the league all season, winning a record 18 league games after being picked 3rd in the preseason poll with zero first-place votes. Does anyone have a shot at taking them down? Let's get into it.

The 2024 Big East Tournament Bracket. pic.twitter.com/5ub8Gc6ich

— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) March 10, 2024

Big East Tournament Odds (VegasInsider)

• UConn (-150)
• Creighton (+390)
• Marquette (+600)
• St. John's (+1300)
• Villanova (+2000)
• Seton Hall (+4000)
• Providence (+7000)
• Butler (+10000)
• Xavier (+10000)
• Georgetown (+25000)
• DePaul (+25000)

First Round

No. 8 Butler over No. 9 Xavier

A few weeks ago Butler was firmly in the NCAA field as a 10 seed, but a five-game losing streak in February took them right out of it. The Bulldogs still have a better team than Xavier, who relies much too heavily on grad transfer guard Quincy Olivari to bail them out. There's no question the dynamic guard can fill it up -- he led the conference in scoring at 19.5 points per game and shot over 43% from three -- but it won't be enough. Butler has the x-factor on defense with Posh Alexander who helped hold Olivari to 5-15 from the floor in a loss less than a week ago. The Bulldogs edge this one out and get a shot at almighty UConn.

Another 3️⃣0️⃣-point day for Quincy Olivari! pic.twitter.com/pijY8c3IEn

— Xavier Basketball (@XavierMBB) March 10, 2024

No. 7 Providence over No. 10 Georgetown

Ed Cooley's first season in D.C. didn't play out how he wanted, finishing with a 9-22 record (2-18 Big East), but it was always going to take a season or two to rescue this program from the mess in which Patrick Ewing left it. Hoyas point guard Jayden Epps has a lot of talent and can score in bunches, but Providence has All-Big East first-team shooting guard Devin Carter on the other side who has killed Georgetown in the past. He and Josh Oduro are maybe the best one-two punch in the league and should easily take care of Cooley's No. 322-ranked defense.

No. 6 Villanova over No. 11 DePaul 

DePaul doesn't deserve more than 30-ish words. 3-28 overall, 0-20 Big East. 13 conference losses by 20 or more. Villanova steamrolls the Blue Demons in a must-win game.

Second Round

No. 1 UConn over No. 8 Butler

The Huskies have lost once in 2024. Dan Hurley has an embarrassment of riches on the offensive end with Tristen Newton leading the way as the first-team All Big-east floor general and Cam Spencer joining him in that elite honor from the wing. Butler simply doesn't have enough firepower and defensive chops to keep pace with UConn. The Huskies roll to the semis.

First Team All-American Tristen Newton has a nice ring to it 🙌@d1tristen | @sportingnews pic.twitter.com/ar07Z5dIhE

— UConn Men's Basketball (@UConnMBB) March 13, 2024

No. 5 St. John's over No. 4 Seton Hall

Both Marquette and Villanova have the name recognition but this one could be the most intriguing of the second-round matchups. Two teams squarely on the bubble with Seton Hall currently given the slight edge, this single game could decide the tournament fate of each. The Johnnies have improved throughout the season under legendary coach Rick Pitino, excelling in speeding the game up with their multiple pressures and crashing the offensive glass. Seton Hall likes to play similarly but does not rely on the three as much. Kadary Richmond for the Pirates is one of the best two-way players in the country -- another first-team all-conference player -- but St. John's narrowly ekes out a win here due to their depth and coaching advantage.

No. 2 Creighton over No. 7 Providence

Ryan Kalkbrenner just won the Big East Defensive Player of the Year for a third consecutive season, joining Patrick Ewing and Alonzo Mourning as the only players to win it three times. Wing Trey Alexander - recently named Big East second team - is a plus defender himself with his 6-foot-10 wingspan. Because of how much Providence relies on Josh Oduro and Devin Carter, two players who will be almost certainly matched up with Kalkbrenner and Alexander, the Blue Jays should be able to control the game if they are able to keep Providence's two superstars in relative check. Watch out for Carter though, who has the ability to go nuclear and could single-handedly keep this one tight.

No. 6 Villanova over No. 3 Marquette

The last time these two teams played there were 165 total points scored, led by Tyler Kolek's 32 points in a tight win on the road. It's still unknown whether or not the star point guard will play after missing the last two games of the season with an oblique injury. The Golden Eagles are still a top-25 team without him, but if they want to win this tournament, having Kolek out there is essential. The Wildcats have lost 14 games already and will need this one to have a shot at the Big Dance. 'Nova's Eric Dixon and Marquette's Oso Ighodaro will be the matchup to watch for this game. If Dixon can take Ighodaro away from the paint as much as possible to open up some driving lanes for Kyle Neptune's talented but underperforming guards, then the Wildcats could steal one in the second round and add a massive win to their at-large resume.

Semifinals

No. 1 UConn over No. 5 St. John's

Rick Pitino vs. Dan Hurley round 3. Get the popcorn ready. UConn has won both matchups this season, though the first one at home was a two-point game with less than two minutes remaining. The big difference in that one was no Donovan Clingan for UConn, who has been back fully healthy for a while and dominating of late. Although, the Johnnies have a great big man as well in Joel Soriano, and if he's able to get Clingan in foul trouble the game flips completely on its head. St. John's has the athletes to keep up with UConn but is much less polished on both ends of the floor. Pitino's guards will have to force UConn to turn the ball over quite a bit to ignite some offense and throw the Huskies off their rhythm. Dan Hurley's bunch is just too disciplined to let this happen though, and will advance to their first Big East championship since Kemba Walker willed them there in 2011.

No. 2 Creighton over No. 6 Villanova

Creighton is a well-oiled machine on the offensive end, ranking top five in both effective field goal percentage and 2pt %. Baylor Scheierman is the catalyst behind this attack with his nightly averages of 18.5 points, 4.1 assists and 96 made threes that gave him All-Big East first-team honors. The transfer from South Dakota State has scored in double figures in every game this season and does not have a match on the other side of the ball that can consistently slow him down.

Baylor Scheierman, The Sporting News All-America Third Team

MORE: https://t.co/uRHK81XME7#GoJays pic.twitter.com/YXKIHVJiwq

— Creighton Men’s Basketball (@BluejayMBB) March 12, 2024

This might have to be a Justin Moore game for 'Nova if they want a shot at the championship. The senior guard was picked for some preseason All-American teams but has not been consistent whatsoever this year. However, he's fully capable of putting up 20+ at any moment. The Blue Jays prove too much to handle on the offensive end, and Villanova falls a few points from having a shot at an NCAA tourney bid.

Championship

No. 1 UConn over No. 2 Creighton

While the Huskies were the clear-cut #1 team in this conference for the majority of the season, it was quite the battle for the #2 spot between Creighton and Marquette. After the Blue Jays dropped two straight to Butler and Providence, it was looking like Marquette had that position locked up after Tyler Kolek went on his dominant run. UConn then put an emphatic end to that, beating Marquette so bad it made you question if they were a top-25 team at all.

Creighton was one of two Big East teams to win against the Huskies this season. The blueprint is simple. Just go absolutely unconscious from three and don't turn the ball over. Easy! All jokes aside, UConn is going to be hungry for revenge in this one, and will have 85% of the crowd's favor at the Garden. The Blue Jays played an almost perfect game against them in that huge 85-66 win and I don't see them replicating that. UConn gets the win here on the back of Cam Spencer, who lights up MSG for five threes and Dan Hurley wins his first Big East tournament title.

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