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Ryan runs through the ACC men's basketball tournament bracket, giving his predictions on each matchup. Who has the edge heading into the tournament?
Conference championship week is here! Besides the actual NCAA Tournament itself and (maybe) feast week, this is the best five-day stretch of college basketball that the season has to offer.
Tuesday marks the tipoff of the ACC Tournament. It was generally a down year for the conference once again, with only two AP top-25 teams currently (UNC and Duke) as well as four total in the top 40 of KenPom and the NET, but this still should be a fun and competitive tournament.
There are several bubble implications as well, with Virginia currently in ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi's Last Four In. Wake Forest and Pittsburgh find themselves in the Next Four Out, but could play their way into the field. Let's get into some predictions!
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First Round
No. 13 Georgia Tech over No. 12 Notre Dame
While Notre Dame exceeded expectations this year -- at least conference standings-wise -- Georgia Tech just went into Winston-Salem and beat a very solid Wake Forest team less than a week ago so I'll take the Jackets in this one. ND's Markus Burton will be the best player on the floor, but GT has a more balanced roster.
No. 10 NC State over No. 15 Louisville
Louisville finished last in the conference for a second straight year. The Cards are 11-52 in the ACC over the past three seasons but actually improved on last year's record by winning three games instead of two. Even with that absolutely massive improvement, the Wolfpack are not losing to the lowly Cardinals, who are ranked No. 197 in KenPom, far and away the worst of the ACC teams.
No. 14 Miami over No. 11 Boston College
Miami was ranked No. 8 in the country four weeks into the season, but their demise started with a 22-point route at the hands of Kentucky where their defense was thoroughly exposed. Three games later, they lost to Colorado by 27. Despite having what is easily a top 5-7 roster in the conference talent-wise, this team managed to lose nine straight ACC games dating back to February 3. Even with all of these factors riding against the Hurricanes, they should still be able to take care of a BC team that is equally as bad. Talent gets Miami one ACC tournament win here.
Second Round
No. 8 Virginia Tech over No. 9 Florida State
Florida State is truly great at one thing, and that is pressuring the ball, but unfortunately for them, the Hokies have one of the best point guards in the conference in Sean Pedulla. The junior put up 19 and 26 against the 'Noles in two matchups this season, with sharpshooter Hunter Cattoor pouring in a combined 39. This one should come down to the wire but the Hokies pull it out on the back of their elite free-throw shooting (sixth nationally).
No. 5 Wake Forest over No. 13 Georgia Tech
Steve Forbes and Co. are sputtering at the worst possible time, having dropped three out of their last four before a massive win against Clemson. However, they are not dropping two straight to Georgia Tech. Hunter Sallis and Boopie Miller combine for 40+ points and Wake cruises on to play Pitt in the second round.
No. 7 Syracuse over No. 10 NC State
Syracuse actually tied for fifth in the conference with Clemson and Wake, but due to the head-to-head tiebreaker record, they were seeded seventh, which exceeded preseason expectations. Judah Mintz is one of the more underrated players in the conference and will control this game. Red Autry advances in his first season as the Orange head coach.
No. 6 Clemson over No. 14 Miami
Maybe the most disappointing team of 2023-24 finally has their season come to an end against a Clemson squad that is fully capable of doing some damage in the Big Dance. Miami will put up a better fight than expected, but the Tigers advance on the back of their all-conference players PJ Hall and Joe Girard.
Quarterfinals
No. 1 North Carolina over No. 8 Virginia Tech
I'll take your Sean Pedulla and raise you an RJ Davis. UNC's senior guard just took home the ACC Player of the Year honors, which was rightfully deserved after putting up one of the best seasons in school history. Armando Bacot should feast down low once again vs. Lynn Kidd, who is also currently questionable with a hamstring injury. Without him, a 20-20 game for Bacot is not out of the question.
No. 5 Wake Forest over No. 4 Pittsburgh
With both of these teams fighting for their postseason lives, this one should hopefully provide some early fireworks. Manifesting it now. Hunter Sallis and Blake Hinson going bucket-for-bucket in the last few minutes until one of them gets a final say in the matter. Wake's offense is a bit more trustworthy and consistent so I'm rolling with the Deacs to put an end to Pitt's bubble case.
No. 2 Duke over No. 7 Syracuse
This game wasn't close in Durham back in January, and I don't see this one being all that close, either. Syracuse will really have to battle if they want to get by NC State, and having to immediately turn around and play a fresh Duke team is not a winning combo for the Orange. Even if the aforementioned Mintz and JJ Starling can somehow win their matchups against Jeremy Roach and Tyrese Proctor, there's still a giant 7-foot problem in Kyle Filipowski that Syracuse simply cannot counter.
No. 6 Clemson over No. 3 Virginia
The 'Hoos have been an abomination on offense for much of this season and while they did cover a 10-point spread comfortably against Georgia Tech last game, it was very ugly leading up to that. 53 points per game over their past six contests, which has led to Iowa Hawkeyes football comparisons. If you've paid any attention to college football over the past few years, you know that's about as bad of an insult as you can receive. Clemson isn't playing particularly well right now and they did drop one to this Virginia team at home earlier in the season, but it's very hard to have any sort of confidence in Tony Bennett's squad heading into the tournament.
Semifinals
No. 2 Duke over No. 6 Clemson
After Pitt vs. Wake Forest, this might be the second-most intriguing matchup of the tournament thus far if this is in fact how it plays out. Two of the top-five players in the conference PJ Hall and Kyle Filiposwki squaring off for the right to play for an ACC championship. Duke barely eked out a one-point win earlier in the season at home against these Tigers with freshman Jared McCain dropping 21.
If the Blue Devils are able to get consistent pressure on Girard and force the marksman to take mostly contested threes, they should make their second straight ACC Tournament title game. Brad Brownell will likely need a big game from senior guard Chase Hunter if he has any hope of cutting down the nets in DC.
No. 1 North Carolina over No. 5 Wake Forest
Most people won't give Wake much of a chance to win this one, but this team is very capable of pulling it off. The guard trio of Sallis, Miller, and Hildreth can match that of RJ Davis, Harrison Ingram, and Cormac Ryan. Steve Forbes doesn't really have anyone who can check Bacot, and that is a clear problem. UNC is also so versatile defensively in how they guard and their ability to switch, with Ingram leading the way in that department. This one comes down to the final seconds, but the Tar Heels squeak by with RJ Davis sealing the game at the line.
Championship
No. 2 Duke over No. 1 North Carolina
The greatest rivalry in college basketball takes center stage for the 263rd time in history (UNC leads 145-117), but this time it's in the ACC Tournament final. These were the two best teams in the conference all season long and it's not a debate. How fitting would it be if they squared off one more time this year to claim the conference title?
UNC already won both matchups this season, most recently storming into Cameron Indoor and stealing the tournament regular-season crown behind 31 from Cormac Ryan. While the "it's hard to beat a team three times" saying may not be backed by statistics generally, in a rivalry as intense as this, there is some truth to it.
This game will be dictated by guard play, with two elite senior point guards squaring off in RJ Davis and Jeremy Roach, who are probably sick of each other after having faced off over seven times. Bacot and Filipowski will get theirs, but for me, Tyrese Proctor is the X factor in this one.
The sophomore shooting guard broke out in this tournament last year, and while he hasn't quite lived up to his All-American expectations in 2023-24, he's still someone who gives you matchup problems on both sides of the ball and can use his length to get into the teeth of the defense and set up the two freshman -- McCain and Caleb Foster -- for some open looks.
This game plays out similarly to the 2022 Final Four, but instead it's Duke that pulls ahead on a big shot at the end of the game to win their second straight ACC Tournament title.
