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Welcome to the 2023-24 NBA playoffs! The best of the best remains, with each team hoping to reach the NBA Finals. The road to the Larry O’Brien Trophy will be difficult because the stakes are higher, and the most outstanding players elevate their game when it truly matters.
Sixteen teams remain in the hunt for basketball glory, and they present a good mix of veteran teams and up-and-coming squads. Each unit hopes to bring pride to its city by advancing through every round. The better teams during the regular season will enjoy home-court advantage, which they are looking to put to good use.
However, winning a playoff series isn’t a walk in the park, even if a team has more games at home. Therefore, here are two teams that might not go past the first round, even if they’ve garnered good momentum leading into the postseason.
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2. Los Angeles Clippers
Most trilogies' endings leave a lot to be desired. Here's looking at you, "Godfather 3." The buildup to a trilogy needs many ingredients, including recurring characters (in this case, players), a great story, and a slight change of pace to avoid complacency. Although the Los Angeles Clippers-Dallas Mavericks matchup historically leans favorably for the former team, Part 3 of the well-documented rivalry seemingly is on the verge of a monumental shift. The Clippers come to mind as one of the higher playoff seeds primed for an early exit.
The Clippers and Mavericks have a date with destiny. Frankly, you can't speak of Luka Doncic's playoff moments without mentioning the little brother Los Angeles squad. The playoff bubble matchup saw Doncic hit a game-winning step-back three-point shot over Reggie Jackson, which plays on repeat in Mavs fans' heads and probably Jackson's, too. A season later, the monstrous start from Doncic to lead the Mavericks to a mirage of a 2-0 series lead against the wing-heavy Clippers sticks out until you think of the morale-sinking 45-point performance from Kawhi Leonard in Game 6.
While Doncic stats always come to mind, ultimately the Clippers' team success trumps the story. However, in what appears to be the best overall team in the Doncic era, the Clippers have quite the challenge of eliminating the Mavericks for the third time. The Clippers never had to face a Mavericks squad with a legitimate secondary scoring option and a formidable front line. Kyrie Irving adds a ton of spice to an already tasty matchup as the dependable scorer, which Dallas desperately needed in its previous playoff matchup with the Clippers.
Moreover, the Mavericks do more than wow you on offense in light of their remarkable 106.1 defensive rating in their last 15 games, which is good enough to top the league in the allotted time. It seems the additions of Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington Jr. paid off quite nicely. While Dallas's rookie center, Dereck Lively II, remains uncertain for Game 1 due to a knee sprain suffered on March 31, it still manages to form an advanced roster compared to the 2021 playoff series, which saw Trey Burke and Boban Marjanovic log minutes.
For as much as injury discussions stink, they are inevitable in the sports world. Ignoring Kawhi Leonard's ongoing right knee inflammation would be foolish for any bettor. Without Leonard, the Clippers don't have a shot at beating the Mavericks, especially noting that the once-perceived defensive juggernaut ranked 22nd in defensive rating since the All-Star break. Injuries aside, the Clippers have another burden that weighs heavily. Without completely disparaging James Harden, there is a certain aura surrounding the one-time MVP regarding postseason performances, which causes critics to foam at the mouth.
How will Harden respond when the Mavericks figuratively punch the Clippers in the mouth? Although Harden's usage will rank relatively low compared to previous postseason runs if Leonard suits up for action, there is a scenario in which the former Houston Rockets guard's scoring plays a pivotal part in stretching out the Mavericks defense. When the Clippers traded for Harden, the bench was sacrificed. The Los Angeles trio's production matters exponentially more as the Clippers bench pales compared to the two previous playoff matchups against Dallas.
Regarding the regular-season series between the Clippers and Mavericks, the former bested the latter with a 2-1 record. However, their last matchup dates back to December, when the Mavericks played and looked noticeably different.
With all the positive talk of Dallas's chances of making it out of the 4-5 matchup, I can't go without mentioning the glaring difference between the two opponents: head coaching. While Jason Kidd escaped last season's disappointing performance unscathed and felt the benefits of personnel changes at the trade deadline, Kidd will have to coach versus a formidable strategic opponent.
In the 2021 playoffs, Tyronn Lue led a masterful display on neutralizing a hobbled Kristaps Porzingis. Lue deployed small-ball lineups, which hindered any hope of the former one-time All-Star mustering flashes of greatness. On the other end of the coaching spectrum sits Kidd. Known more for his relationship with Doncic than anything, Kidd lacks in the X's and O's side, and lined up against an elite adjustment-making coach is a cause for concern for Mavericks fans.
Doncic is corporate America's dream in how he does more with less. Thankfully, Mavericks ownership finally stopped its "Horrible Bosses" impersonation and did right by their star, as evident in the well-formed roster heading into the 2024 postseason. Currently, the odds are split, with both teams at -110 to win the series, following a short stint of Dallas playing the underdog. The odds moved for good reason, and it should give you a second thought before banking on the Clippers to close out the Mavericks in one of the more entertaining trilogies.
1. Milwaukee Bucks
Before Giannis Antetokounmpo went down with a calf strain, a dark cloud of doubt hovered the Milwaukee Bucks. Milwaukee went 6-9 in its last 15 games of the season, losing by an average of 18 points in its previous three losses -- not precisely how you'd expect a championship contender to perform heading into the postseason. With the Bucks costing themselves a 50-win season due to the mind-numbing losses to teams such as the Washington Wizards, they must play the Indiana Pacers without Antetokounmpo for at least an "early portion" of the series.
Admittedly, the Indiana Pacers, specifically Tyrese Haliburton, haven't performed up to their early-season start. However, history shows Indiana is an ideal foil for struggling Milwaukee. Thanks to the play-in tournament, the Pacers recorded an extra win vs. the Bucks, finishing 4-1 against the 2021 NBA champions, winning by an average of nine points. Even with Antetokounmpo, the Pacers didn't fear the deer. Moreover, one of the more shameful acts of Antetokounmpo's career came against the Pacers in a victory, oddly enough.
Giannis Antetokounmpo was trying to enter the Pacers locker room after they took his 6️⃣4️⃣-piece game ball 😲
— BasketNews (@BasketNews_com) December 14, 2023
The two-time MVP went out of his way to access the game ball after his 64-point performance. Displaying fits of rage over a game incites causes for concern, especially of a team withering before our eyes. Schematically, the Pacers are the antithesis of the Bucks in how they approach the game of basketball. Historically, Rick Carlisle coaches his team to play at a slower pace. However, this season showcases both Carlisle's changing of strategy and the influence of Haliburton.
Indiana ranks second in pace for the season, and the Bucks finished eighth. However, since firing Adrian Griffin, the Bucks fell to 18th, clearly losing their fire on offense as they became nearly mediocre, which is evident in the 13th-ranked offensive rating. Without Antetokounmpo to ignite fast-break attacks, the Bucks lack anyone capable of pushing the pace. Damian Lillard slows down possessions to take difficult shots. On the wrong side of 30 and never known for defense, Lillard will have a long series attempting to combat the jet-fueled offense of the Pacers. Haliburton will become a household name on the foundation of Lillard's poor defense.
In light of the uncertainty surrounding the calf strain, there is no guarantee of Antetokounmpo's return in the playoffs, especially if the Pacers take a commanding 2-0 series lead. Although history is to be respected and acknowledged, the current Bucks don't merit any benefit of the doubt. Having three coaches in a year, constant rumors of misery from Lillard, and mysteriously high shots aimed at the team's equipment manager ultimately led me to believe they have a high probability of falling to the Pacers in the first round.
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