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Sam Chinitz presents his expert MLB DFS prop picks for Monday, September 14th. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
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Monday features a slate of 10 MLB games, including several attractive prop bets available at MKF. I'll be making MKF picks every Monday, so check back again next week for more opportunities.
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Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
More or Less Contest #2
Corey Seager more than 1.5 total bases, Austin Nola less than 1.5 hits/walks.
Corey Seager more than 1.5 total bases:
Seager owns a ridiculous .752 xSLG so far this season, and that alone makes him relatively likely to pick up at least two total bases. It’s not as if Dilenson Lamet is a particularly bad matchup for Seager, either. Lament throws his slider more than 50% of the time, and Seager has posted a .642 xSLG against the pitch so far this season -- a step down from his overall xSLG, but still impressive. Another 36% of Lamet’s pitches are fastballs, pitches against which Seager owns a .954 xSLG this season. That’s enough to make Seager an easy bet for two or more total bases on Monday.
Austin Nola less than 1.5 hits/walks
Nola has reached base at least twice in 14 of his first 37 games this season, and he’s going up against one of the best pitchers in baseball in Clayton Kershaw on Monday. It’s a small sample size, but Nola has posted a reverse platoon split so far this season with a .256 OBP against southpaws, making his matchup against Kershaw even less favorable. Further working against Nola’s favor is that the Los Angeles bullpen has held opposing batters to a .284 OBP, so even if Kershaw gets knocked out of the game then Nola should still have a difficult time reaching base. It’s unlikely that Nola reaches base more than once on Monday as a result, and he’s worth betting against.
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Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
More or Less Contest #2
Jose Abreu more than 1.5 total bases, Jorge Polanco less than 1.5 hits/walks.
Jose Abreu more than 1.5 total bases:
Abreu has been red-hot this season with a .627 slugging percentage and a .622 xSLG, and he should be able to collect at least two total bases against Jose Berrios and the Twins on Monday. Berrios mixes his pitches well and uses his curveball (30% usage rate), fastball (25%), sinker (25%), and changeup (20%) fairly evenly, but Abreu has hit well against all four pitches this season. For the year, Abreu owns a .694 xSLG against those four pitches combined, and he even posted a strong .604 xSLG against those pitches last season. If Berrios is knocked out of the game, Abreu will face a solid Minnesota bullpen that’s allowed a .413 slugging percentage to opposing hitters this season, but that’s come largely against a weak AL Central and Abreu should have a decent chance of hitting well against the unit. All of that makes Abreu likely to pick up at least two total bases on Monday, and he’s worth betting on at MKF.
Jorge Polanco less than 1.5 hits/walks:
Polanco owns a fairly poor .317 OBP for the season, and he’s ill-equipped to face Dylan Cease and the White Sox on Monday. Cease throws his fastball nearly 50% of the time, and Polanco owns a mediocre .346 against fastballs for his career. Similarly, Polanco isn’t a particularly strong slider hitter with a career .322 OBP against the pitch, and Cease throws his slider more than 30% of the time. Combined with the fact that Polanco posted a .207 xBA against sliders located down and in (where Cease throws the bulk of his sliders to lefties) last season, Polanco’s unexceptional performance against sliders and fastballs makes Cease a poor matchup. Once Cease leaves, Polanco will face a dominant Chicago bullpen that’s allowed a .308 OBP to opposing batters, making it even more difficult for Polanco to reach base. It’s unlikely that Polanco reaches base more than once on Monday as a result, making him worth betting against.
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More or Less Contest #3
Nelson Cruz more tan 1.5 hits/walks, Tim Anderson more than 1.5 total bases.
Nelson Cruz more than 1.5 hits/walks:
Cruz boasts an impressive .418 OBP so far this season, and he should play well against Chicago starting pitcher Dylan Cease. Cease throws his fastball nearly 50% of the time, and Cruz owns a strong .402 OBP against the pitch since the start of last season. Even sliders -- which Cease throws about 30% of the time -- haven’t neutralized Cruz recently, as the 40-year-old has posted a .335 OBP against sliders since the start of last season. The Chicago bullpen is tough this year, but Cruz should manage to reach base at least twice on Monday thanks to a favorable matchup against Cease.
Tim Anderson more than 1.5 total bases:
Anderson owns a .581 slugging percentage and .539 xSLG so far this season, and he’s picked up at least two total bases in 21 of his 35 games this year. As solid as opposing starter Jose Berrios has been this season, he’s struggled to limit quality contact and has allowed a .391 xwOBAcon. Given that Anderson owns a better-than-average 21% strikeout rate and 71% in-play rate since the start of 2019, he should put the ball in play at least twice on Monday. Berrios’s contact quality issues should benefit Anderson as a result, and that gives Anderson a solid chance of collecting at least two total bases.
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