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MLB Betting Expert Picks (7/23/19): Moneylines, Totals


Welcome to the Tuesday, July 23rd edition of RotoBaller's MLB Betting Picks. I will be serving up some of my top options on today's 15 game slate.

  • Saturday's Picks: 3-2 (60.0%) +30
  • Year-to-Date: 20-17 (54.1%) +142

In this article, we will dive into the numbers and pick out my top recommended betting picks for today's slate. Feel free to contact me on Twitter @JoeWilliamsVI if you have any questions or if you'd like addition content and occasional gambling notes and tidbits.

Here are my picks for Tuesday, July 23rd. Be sure to check out all the MLB Vegas Odds and MLB Park Factors for today's slate. Good luck!

Editor's Note: Get our 2020 MLB Premium Pass for 50% off, with exclusive access to our draft kit, premium rankings, player projections and outlooks, our top sleepers, dynasty and prospect rankings, 20 preseason and in-season lineup tools, and over 200 days of expert DFS research and tools. Sign Up Now!

 

Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays (+150)

O/U: 7.5

Red Sox LHP Chris Sale has had a strange season. On one hand, his 1.08 WHIP is right in line with his career numbers, and he is already up to 172 strikeouts over 117 2/3 innings, putting him on pace for 276 Ks, which would be the second-most of his career. However, he also has a dismal 4-9 record, putting him on target for a career-high 14 losses, which would match his mark from the 2013 season. He also has a 2.0 WAR through 20 starts, lowest for Sale across a full season.

For the Rays, RHP Yonny Chirinos actually has double the victories of Sale, going 8-5 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.02 WHIP through 14 starts and six relief appearances. He dominated the Red Sox in his most recent outing against the division rivals, spinning eight scoreless inning with just two hits, two walks and six strikeouts in a victory at Fenway Park on June 7. While the Rays are just 1-6 across his past seven outings, Tampa is a nice value at home against Sale, who has struggled in the win-loss department.

My Pick: Rays (+150)

 

New York Yankees (-130) @ Minnesota Twins

O/U: 10

The Yankees have been fantastic behind RHP Domingo German this season, as he is 12-2 with a 3.38 ERA and 95 strikeouts over just 88 innings in 15 starts and one relief showing. The Yankees are 8-2 over his past 10 outings, too. While he has been a little more hittable on the road as opposed to home, he is 6-1 with a 4.53 ERA and sparkling 1.07 WHIP in his 45 2/3 innings on the road this season.

For the Twins, RHP Kyle Gibson is looking to join the double-digit wins club, but it will be a tall order against a team which has handled him well over the years. In fact, the Twins are 0-5 in his past five starts at Target Field against the Yankees, and 0-7 in his past seven tries overall against the Evil Empire. The Twins are just 2-3 across his past five appearances at home, too. The Twins bashed their way past the Yankees in the series opener, but look for the Bronx Bombers to even the score in this one.

My Pick: Yankees (-130)

 

San Diego Padres @ New York Mets (+115)

O/U: 8.5

The Mets are awfully attractive as short 'dogs at home, as they look to rally behind LHP Jason Vargas on Tuesday night.

The Padres have struggled against southpaws, going 17-39 in the past 56 against left-handed starting pitchers, and they have won just two of their past nine games overall while going 1-7 in the past eight games against National League East foes. While they're 4-1 in RHP Chris Paddack's past five when working on five days of rest, they're also 0-5 in the past five Game 1s of a new series.

The Mets have rattled off 11 victories in the past 13 at home against teams with a losing record, and they're 4-1 in the past five vs. RHP. New York is also an impressive 4-0 in the past four starts by Vargas against teams with a losing record, and 5-1 in his past six overall against sub-.500 teams.

If you're looking for a nice parlay, consider this game. The under is 3-1-1 in Paddack's past five on the road, and 6-1 in his past seven on five days rest. The under is also a perfect 6-0 in San Diego's past six vs. LHP, including 5-0 in their past five on the road against 'paws. The under is also a ridiculous 12-0-1 in Vargas' past 13 outings at home, and 8-3-3 in his past 14 starts overall.

My Pick: Mets (+115) and Under 8.5 (-115)

 

Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants (-105)

O/U: 7.5

The Cubs and Giants square off in a solid pitching matchup, with RHP Yu Darvish facing LHP Madison Bumgarner on the shores of San Francisco Bay. The wind will be blowing out to straightaway center field from 10-13 mph, so the over is in play at Oracle Park on Tuesday.

While the under is 6-0-1 in Chicago's past seven overall, 5-1 in the past six against winning teams and 6-0 in Darvish's past six road outings against winning teams, the over is 7-2-1 in Chicago's past 10 on the road against teams with a losing home mark.

The over is 15-5-4 in San Francisco's past 24 against NL Central foes, and 17-6-4 in the past 27 against winning teams. The over is also 5-1-1 in the past seven at home against winning teams, and 14-3 in the past 17 on a Tuesday, for whatever that's worth. With MadBum on the hill, the over is 9-4-1 in San Francisco's past 14 overall, and 4-1-1 in his past six against winning sides. The over is a strong play catching even money.

My Pick: Over 7.5 (+100)

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