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Nate Duffett's MLB betting picks for 5/11/19. He analyzes Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets for today's MLB slate including moneylines and over/unders.
Welcome back RotoBallers! On Saturday, May 11th we see a 16 game MLB slate, with the Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers taking part in a doubleheader. The day starts with a 1:05 PM game between the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners and ends with a 9:10 PM game between the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers. There's nothing better than a staggered slate on a Saturday with non-stop baseball for 11 hours. Let's find your favorite spot on the couch, settle in, and win some cash.
In this article, we will dive into the numbers and pick out my top recommended betting picks for today's slate. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @Roto_Nate if you have any questions.
So without any further delay, below are my picks for Saturday, May 11th. Good luck!
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Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox (-195) | O/U: 10.5
On Friday night, the Red Sox covered the total by themselves, scoring 14 runs in a rout of the Mariners. I can't see the scoring slowing down in this game either, as the Over is 24-11 in Mariners games this season, while the over is 19-12 in games where the Red Sox are favorites. Rick Porcello and Felix Hernandez have been pitchers in the past that you may have avoided the over in their games, but they have shown no reason for fear this year, putting up ERA's of 5.11 and 5.20 respectively. The Mariners bullpen has also shown signs of vulnerability this season, coming into the game with a 5.03 ERA. If the Red Sox get to Hernandez early, it won't get any tougher for them to score runs once they get into the bullpen.
My Pick: Over 10.5 (-110)
Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-125) | O/U: 7.0
This game with Max Scherzer and Walker Buehler on the mound in 2018 had the makings of a 2-1 pitchers duel. I think the oddsmakers are living in the past here at this number, as Scherzer and Buehler have had their fair share of troubles this season. Scherzer has yet to show his dominant self, allowing 12 runs over his past four starts. Buehler has allowed three runs in each of his last three starts. When these guys are eventually taken out of the game, the Nationals bullpen is the worst in the majors, allowing a 6.29 ERA. The Dodgers bullpen is also in the bottom third of the league, coming into the game with a 4.50 ERA. I could see myself taking the over in this one if it went as high as 8 or 8.5, that is how strongly I feel about these teams ability to score runs in this matchup.
My Pick: Over 7.0 (+100)
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs (-150) | O/U: 7.5
I like to attack value when I see a misprice. I feel that this is one of the bigger mispricings on the slate, as they are making the Cubs a -150 favorite against a team who has a guy in Zach Davies with a 4-0 record and 1.56 ERA on the mound. The Brewers are also coming off a 7-0 win over the Cubs last night, where they beat the Cubs best pitcher so far this season in Jose Quintana. Their starter today, Cole Hamels has also been having a good season, with a 3-0 record and 3.38 ERA, but it doesn't compare to Davies' numbers. I feel that this line should have been closer to a pick em', so I will take the Brewers today in hopes that Davies will continue his dominance on the mound, and they will get to Hamels as easily as they got to Quintana in game one of the series.
My Pick: Brewers ML (+130)
Los Angeles Angels (-143) @ Baltimore Orioles | O/U: 10.0
If I just told you guys to take an over in a game with Scherzer and Buehler, you better believe I'll be taking an over in a pitching matchup of Matt Harvey vs Dylan Bundy. The Angels have hit the over in five of their last six games, and the Orioles Over record is 12-6 when they play at Camden Yards. Harvey's habit of giving up home runs strolls into one of the better hitting parks in the Majors while sporting a 6.94 ERA. Bundy has also been struggling so far this season with a 5.30 ERA. It's important not to overthink this one, and I believe I would feel comfortable taking the over at an even higher number than what we have here to open.
My Pick: Over 10.0 (-115)
Cleveland Indians (-135) @ Oakland Athletics | O/U: 8.5
The Indians and Athletics are two of the worst teams against right-handed pitching, sitting at 27th and 23rd respectively in the majors. They will face off today at one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the league. Aaron Brooks has struggled mightily on the road but has been serviceable at home, only allowing eight runs over three starts. Bauer has struggled his last two starts, but this will be the perfect opportunity for him to get back to his Ace form and lead the Indians to a victory.
My Pick: Indians ML + Under 8.5 Parlay (+232)
