9 Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions - Michael Florio's 2025 Picks

March 14, 2025

Michael Florio's 9 fantasy baseball bold predictions for the 2025 MLB season, including predictions for Juan Soto, Bo Bichette, Jackson Holliday and more.

A good bold prediction should seem farfetched enough to question but realistic enough that it actually could happen. I am not someone who makes wild claims to get attention, knowing they will never come true.

However, if anyone said last year that Ohtani would go 50-50, you would have looked at them like they had three heads. So, all of my bold predictions have a little spice while also being in a realistic range of outcomes. They are all things that I feel strongly about heading into the 2025 fantasy baseball season.

So, without further ado, here are 9 bold predictions guaranteed (not really) to happen! You can also check out other bold predictions from our team right here in our yearly Bold Predictions series.

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Spencer Schwellenbach Wins NL Cy Young

Spencer Schwellenbach is not just the pitcher I want on all of my fantasy teams. I think he catches many by surprise and will win the NL Cy Young Award this year. Despite being unsure if he would make the majors last year, he finished the season with a 3.35 ERA, 3.44 xERA, and a 1.04 WHIP. He racks up strikeouts at an above average rate while limiting walks, which is evident by his 20.8 percent K-BB rate while allowing a barrel rate of just 4.9 percent. Limiting walks and hard contact while missing bats is an easy recipe for success.

He has numerous plus pitches, which is not bad for a pitcher who only began pitching full-time in the last two years. The former college shortstop reminds me of Jacob deGrom in that regard. And just like deGrom, he snatches the top pitching honor.

Shohei Ohtani Steals Fewer Than 25 Bases

Shohei Ohtani stole 59 bases as part of his historic 2024 season. Prior to that, though, he had topped 20 steals just twice and 25 once. Why does that matter? He pitched those seasons like he will this year, and he did not last year. As we’ve seen, when he pitches, he will require more rest, so do not expect him to reach 731 plate appearances.

I also question if he will run less to preserve his body and keep him out of harm's way after he injured his shoulder while attempting a steal in the World Series. He returns to his career norms again in 2025.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Steals Fewer Than 20 Bases

Ronald Acuna Jr. will not be ready for Opening Day. In fact, most projections have him missing anywhere between 30 and 40 games. Not only will he miss time early on, but the Braves have already talked about giving him rest days. And it’s not like they have a DH spot open with Marcell Ozuna there.

Acuna has been a premier base stealer since he entered the league, and it is a huge factor as to why he has been a fantasy cheat code. He is returning from a second torn ACL, though.

I believe it will take a ramp-up period to get him back to 100 percent and trusting his knee again. I also think he and the Braves will be much less aggressive on the bases, especially early on. He steals fewer than 20 bags in his first year back.

Juan Soto Sets A Career-High Mark In Home Runs

Many will expect Juan Soto’s homers to come down after hitting a career-high 41 last year. Some will say he will no longer be hitting in the lefty-friendly Yankee Stadium or that he no longer has Aaron Judge hitting behind him. I say he is a generational hitter just entering his prime at age 26.

Last season, he had a career high barrel (19.7 percent) and hard-hit rate (56.8 percent) and an average launch angle over 10 degrees for just the second time in his career. Plus, the pressure of having to live up to turning down a massive contract is now off of him. Soto continues to get better and better.

Jackson Chourio Goes 30/30

Jackson Chourio is a star in the making. As a rookie, he took the league by storm, crushing 21 homers to go with 22 steals and a .275 average. He also showed in the playoffs that no moment is too big for him. I have no concerns about him failing to duplicate what he did as a rookie.

In fact, I think a more comfortable Chourio goes off even more in year two. He has numerous seasons with over 40 stolen bases in the minors. He also routinely posted an ISO above .180 throughout the minors. The young phenom takes another step forward in year two and finishes with 30 homers and 30 stolen bases.

Clay Holmes Is A Top-24 SP

David Stearns and his team have been finding and transforming under-the-radar arms into very viable fantasy starters for some time now. Last year they did so with Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, and David Peterson all to varying degrees. When they quickly signed Clay Holmes to be a starter, many mocked it, but those who have been paying attention were intrigued.

Holmes has absolutely dominated in the spring. Plus, he has incorporated three new pitches. He has a four-seam fastball, a cutter, and a new changeup to go with his two-seamer, sweeper, and slider. You can get by with three pitches as a reliever, but these new pitches should make his transition much easier. We have already seen Holmes pitch at a very high level in the bigs; now, it just comes as a starter. Stearns strikes gold again, and so will fantasy managers who take a chance on him.

Brandon Lowe Stays Healthy And Hits 40 Home Runs

Your eyes may have popped out of your head when you read 40 home runs. I mean, he hasn’t hit more than 21 in three straight seasons. The last time he stayed healthy, though, was in 2021, when he crushed 39 homers. His hard-hit rate has actually increased in the last two seasons from 2021. His barrel rate has not reached that same level, but it is still very high.

So, why the big jump? The change in ballpark for the Rays. He will get to play in Steinbrenner Field, which shares dimensions with the lefty-friendly Yankee Stadium. Not just that, but it is outdoors.

So, he will hit outside in the Florida heat in a park with a short porch. The ball could just fly out of the park. I want exposure to the Rays lineup, with Lowe being my top target. Lowe staying healthy may be the bolder part of this prediction!

Jackson Holliday Goes 20/20

I know Jackson Holliday was a disappointment last season. He would not be the first top prospect to struggle only to succeed when returning to the majors. I believe there is a chance that Holliday becomes this generation's Mike Trout. Not in the sense that he will be one of the best players ever. It's just that he will be the poster boy when top prospects struggle and bounce back. You will hear, “Well, Jackson Holliday didn’t play well in his first go around.”

There is usually a learning curve when adjusting to MLB pitching. I am banking on that being the case with Holliday. He is still the elite prospect he was last year, just with some seasoning under his belt and more of an opportunity to stick in 2025. He has shown us he can hit for power and speed in the minors, and it finally translates to the bigs. I will bank on his talent at a discount.

Bo Bichette Remembers Who He Is

Bo Bichette has hit .290 or better every year except for 2024. He had topped 20 homers in three prior seasons before last year. When looking at the back of his baseball card, 2024 is the clear anomaly.

It was a year filled with injuries for the former stud shortstop. It has led to him being a discount in fantasy drafts this winter. You may not have seen it yet, but Bichette is back to crushing the ball this spring. He is hitting well over .300 while also hitting for power, showing that he is once again squaring up the ball like he has in the past.

Last season created a buying opportunity, and you should take advantage of it this season. Bichette bounces back to hit .290, with 20 homers and 10 or more stolen bases, returning to must-start, top-10 shortstop status.

Bo Bichette is hitting .345 this Spring after hitting this baseball completely out of the park lol pic.twitter.com/kSdpmDPWoe

— Fuzzy (@fuzzyfromyt) March 10, 2025

Alexis Diaz Does Not Lead The Reds In Saves

Alexis Diaz always had issues with walks that have hurt his WHIP. He missed enough bats and picked up enough saves where you dealt with it. Last season, though, the strikeouts dropped significantly. He posted just a 23 percent strikeout rate after topping 30 percent the two years prior.

The walks stayed the same, but batters were also simply hitting him better. His .205 batting average against was a career-high. So was his 8.6 percent HR/FB rate, as well as his ERA and all the indicators.

There were numerous times while writing the Bullpen Report last season that I thought Diaz would lose his gig. If his struggles continue this year, look for that to happen. My best bet would be that Taylor Rogers would gain the most if this happens.

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