RADIO
Mav's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings/FanDuel lineup picks for LPL & LCK on 8/7/21. His top LoL value plays and esports DFS recommendations.
Welcome back summoners, to another LOL breakdown article featuring four matchups tomorrow from the LPL and LCK, matchups that I think should provide some high DFS scoring tomorrow. LPL ends this Sunday and LCK has one more weekend after this before we get to playoffs. The regular season is wrapping up in most major regions if not already, so standings implications may or may not matter at this point. The only match tomorrow that doesn't have standings/playoff implications is the TT vs IG match, so we should see some loose and bloody play in that one. I could see a few underdogs pulling out a win tomorrow, so I think it's a great multi-entry slate and one where you need to pick one even if playing single entry, due to pricing (at least on Draftkings.) RNG are rolling and have their eyes set on the third place, as long as BLG doesn't have anything to say about it. AF got swept by NS last time out in a series where AF had a massive lead and map control in game one(they lost one fight at baron and it was late enough in the game that NS just ended.) LSB also was swept in the first series of the LCK split by BRO, and looks to seek revenge as BRO needs an absolute miracle to make it into playoffs. Let's get into it and as a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings. For FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up early, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who has recently been starting. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too, and I retweet those starting lineups as early as available(usually at least 12 hours before the matches.)
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM EST on Sunday, August 6th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. The odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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4:00 AM: AF (+166) vs. NS (-205)
This is the first LCK matchup of the day so lineups should be out. AF is a team that likes to build up their lead early, usually through Kiin and Dread. NS matches up well vs AF, as Peanut is the main playmaker/shot-caller of the NS squad and another team that plays through the early game jungle action. I believe this series will rely heavily on early skirmishes in the jungle and side lanes, in which these teams are pretty well matched. AF is the slowest team in the LCK (0.62 CKPM) and struggles to be proactive in the mid to late stages, especially if they don't find an early lead. Going back to their series a month ago, in game one AF had a super-strong Tristana + Xin Zhao combo after an early invade by Peanut resulted in four AF kills. They had about eleven kills when they lost a fight somehow, and NS ended the game promptly after. NS is perfectly fine with playing for the later stages of the game even when falling behind but like AF, has seemed to pick up the pace and aggression in their recent games. I think this rematch will draw more blood considering the playoffs are nearly locked (above 90% chances) for both these teams, and these squads are looking stronger than their last head-to-head.
This game should go overlooked, which makes me like the AF side here to win 2-1, buuuuut NS will be hungry to further themselves from GEN in the standings since GEN lost to T1 this morning. It's a tough one to choose a side as AF has beat some top teams recently. In a spot like this give me the DOG or PASS, so ill take AF to win 2-1 here. They will be the lower owned stack of a low-owned series that would provide nice leverage and VALUE on a slate where I think you should pay up for RNG. My big concern is the pace, so I'll be focusing on one-offs, TEAM slot, and small stacks for value here. There is another underdog that I prefer getting to for value, however, so I don't mind fading this match for the sake of the slate, as AF is my favorite FADE of the slate and second favorite value-stack tomorrow.
Top AF plays: Kiin, Dread, FADE, Leo, Fly
6:00 AM: BRO (+191) vs. LSB (-238)
For the second LCK series, we won't have starting lineups before lock. Both teams SHOULD be rolling with the same starters from their last matches. Straightforward and to the point in this one, as LSB SHOULD sweep 2-0 here, I'm not going to overthink it. BRO is definitely a wildcard of sorts and is worth a look in deep GPP's like AF, as they look to wreak havoc on the top of the table standings. LSB is also ready to capitalize off of the GEN loss this morning to hopefully move further up the standings. Another matchup I can see going either way, I feel more comfortable in the favorite in this LCK matchup. and honestly more comfortable than IG as -350 favorites.
LSB wins this 2-0 tomorrow, and has been playing really well recently, and has been facing top LCK competition. They've recently defeated NS, T1, and GEN in three games, but before that lost to AF and DK. I think this match should revolve around the top side of the map, where Summit has been dominating lately with the help of Croco and FATE in the draft and in-game. I'll mainly be prioritizing LSB small stacks tomorrow, as other matches have a higher upside for DFS scoring and pace, in terms of full stacks. Fitting full LSB with RNG stacks is pricey, so you would have to go for a value captain, with Summit or Croco being two really solid options. Umti and Hoya are the top two plays for me if you choose to go to BRO for really cheap value.
Top LSB plays: FATE, Summit, Croco, Prince, TEAM
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: TT (+274) vs. IG (-356)
It's an interesting match for the first LPL series, as both teams are eliminated from playoffs and should be playing for pure fun. I think you need a piece of this game, as even if it goes three games we could see a lot of DFS scoring. IG(13-21 game record) are moderate favorites in this one, and actually looked really good in their game one victory vs RA in their last series. Even though they lost that series 2-1, there is definitely a drop-down in competition and lane matchups facing TT(7-23 game record). One of these teams will end their three-game series loss streak tomorrow.
For the sake of this slate and pricing where I'd rather pay up for RNG, give me TT to win this series 2-1 and send IG into a crippling depression to end their season. It's honestly the most IG way to go out, and I'm really just following IG logic to make this pick. I just can't trust IG at all after what I've seen from them this split. IG is the better team on paper, and I really think they're due for a win, but this is IG we are talking about here. Xiaopeng is a GOOD jungler on a bad team and will carry this team along with SamD(meh) to a bloody victory tomorrow. Make sure to DM me on Twitter when IG sweeps, if you burn money on TT with me as well. TT is my favorite value stack tomorrow.
Top TT plays: Xiaopeng, SamD, Xiao7, Pudding, Ye
7:00 AM: BLG (+263) vs. RNG (-339)
The last match of the day could also be the bloodiest one of the whole slate. Neither team is afraid to skirmish early and often, so I also think you need a piece of this match as well as the other LPL series. I have a feeling it's going to be an interesting takedown lineup tomorrow, and I also feel another RNG win coming. BLG knows playoffs are pretty much seeded, so perhaps they come out with new picks in the draft in order to surprise their opponent tomorrow, and the same can be said for all the underdogs tonight. But in this case, RNG can simply play anything and everything, so I'm really confident in RNG being able to counter BLG's counters if it comes to that point.
Sure BLG is worth a look in GPP's as well, and have definitely had a better second half of the split, but this is RNG, who is looking like the best team whole world at the moment. It's scary how good Top to Bottom this RNG roster is, and I expect BLG to come out swinging violently in hopes of getting ahead early and never looking back. I also don't expect BLG to get completely smacked, so I like RNG to put up some huge numbers. I think RNG wins this one 2-0, as they have only dropped 2 games out of their last 18 games played, riding a nine-match win streak into the last series of the split. The couple of BLG lineups I will have, however, will start with Zeka, who has the most winnable matchup tomorrow in my opinion. RNG is my favorite primary stack tomorrow.
Top RNG plays, ALL in order: Wei, Xiaohu, Ming, Gala, Cryin
Summary
- TLDR: My favorite primary stacks/picks in order: RNG 2-0, LSB 2-0, TT 2-1, AF 2-1. Even though I have LSB ranked higher, some members of TT could potentially outscore some LSB members even in a three-game series. I expect plenty of shenanigans in games that don't matter a significant amount. RNG vs BLG and AF vs NS should be the most "serious gameplay" but RNG still has major upside recently.
- Plenty of value with the underdogs to pair with multiple favorites with upside on this slate, so a great multi-entry day. Enter even a couple more lineups than usual to grab more exposure to different stacks, as I think this one will be a fun one like today's (KT, LGD, and RW putting up massive scores.)
- I think TT is the best dog and value on the slate, followed by AF, BLG, and then BRO. I think you have to prioritize a 4-2-1 lineup build on this slate, with most likely an LCK team in the team slot. Both the LPL matches look to have a higher upside than the LCK ones for DFS scoring. It should be a fun one so good luck tomorrow!
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