RADIO
Welcome back summoners, to another LOL breakdown article featuring FIVE matchups tomorrow from the LPL (super weekend!) and LCK. Yesterday showed us the LPL will LPL. All three LPL dogs won, with four total underdogs coming through with victories. I only expected two at max (very comfortable with OMG and had little AF, but fading that one was the right call) but that's the volatility that comes with playing LoL DFS. I don't expect four out of five underdogs to win their series tomorrow, but let's find some angles to approach for the slate. As a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings. For FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up mid-REM sleep, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who has recently been starting. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too, and I retweet those starting lineups as early as available(usually at least 12 hours before the matches.)
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Sunday, July 4th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. The odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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4:00 AM: NS (-155) vs. HLE (+127)
This is the first LCK matchup of the day so lineups should be out. Right off the bat, I think this one goes three games and could go either way. HLE looks somewhat reinvigorated with Arthur and DuDu back in the lineup, looking more like the brawl and skirmishing HLE we saw the last split. That could lead to bloody games and fine secondary plays(two plays max for me) from the winning side. I am leaning NS in this one, but HLE is a good GPP play. NS can lose to worse competition on any given day(like when they got swept by BRO two series ago) and HLE has a large advantage in the mid-lane as usual. If Chovy can have resources at his disposal then he can be a great one-off play (or pair with Arthur for best friend buff) in a three-game victory. However, I like NS here to keep their second-place standing in the LCK vs ninth place HLE, and not overlook HLE as they did overlook BRO recently. CAPTAINS from this game are contrarian but in play. Looking mostly at secondary stacks and one-offs from this match, and completely FADING in some of my lineups. NS win 2-1.
Top NS plays: Deokdam, Peanut, FADE, Kellin
Top HLE plays: Chovy, Arthur, FADE, Deft
6:00 AM: GEN (-160) vs. DK (+131)
For the second LCK series, we won't have starting lineups before lock. Both teams SHOULD be rolling with the same starters from their last matches. We've got a rematch of the spring finals and oh how the mighty fall, as DK DO NOT look like the dominant squad from the last split. GEN is the top of the table right now in the LCK(and have definitely had this match marked on their calendars) and honestly can only be challenged by LSB, NS, KT, T1, and potentially DK depending on how tomorrow ends. Right now GEN is simply the best in the LCK. Rascal is having an amazing split, with the team playing more comfortably around the top side of the map, and can still rely on Ruler for late-game bailouts at times.
Most team stats reflect that, and DK is struggling to find its footing in this meta. I am comfortable getting to primary and secondary stacks of GEN here, worst case they win in three games. I think Vegas wants you to believe DK will rise up tomorrow and show us some of the DK we saw the last split, but GEN comes out tomorrow with a clear gameplan and execute as they have been. GEN win 2-0 and get their finals revenge. CAPTAINS are definitely in play for me from this one. GEN is potentially my favorite stack tomorrow.
Top GEN plays, ALL by preference: (Clid, Rascal, Bdd, Kellin, Ruler)
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LPL Matches
3:00 AM: BLG (-834) vs. V5 (+572)
First LPL matchup tomorrow, and BLG are huge favorites for good reason. They are the better team and have the better players in every role. As the biggest favorites on the slate, I expect them to draw some good ownership, but my concern is they beat V5 too easily and don't score well enough to pay off their price tags. Also, at these odds, I wouldn't be extremely surprised if BLG dropped a game. I would be surprised yes, but I don't fully trust this BLG team yet. They are definitely on the upswing with their new roster moves, but they can get caught out of position and rotations more than needed (looking at BiuBiu and Ppgod.) Zeka is playing some of the best LoL in his career and his synergy with WeiWei is growing. That is a big plus in this meta that plays around the top side of the map mainly, so for the sake of BLG's playstyle, they should light it up here vs a weak tier team.
BLG's top side of the map should dominate 2-0 in this one. Wouldn't mind also fading this one and hoping for an easy victory with little resistance from V5, gaining big leverage over the field, but primary stacks with pivots at CAPTAIN are the way I'm going tomorrow. CAPTAINS are in play from this one but more so WeiWei and BiuBiu, as they are nice CAPTAIN pivots from Zeka and Aiming, and can put up similar numbers in this whacky meta. Zeka also has the toughest matchup vs Uniboy so I prefer other BLG captains.
Top BLG plays, ALL by preference: BiuBiu, WeiWei, Ppgod, Aiming, FADE, Zeka
5:00 AM: EDG (-204) vs. TES (+165)
BANGER ALERT BANGER ALERT BANGER ALERT! For DFS purposes, however, I think this game could potentially let down, more so if EDG wins. TES (Jackeylove too) are playing more reserved and calculated since inserting Qingtian into the lineup(who looks very good on Sett and OK on other champs.) Knight is off to a stellar start, with the team playing around him and Jackeylove as they should. TES is dirt cheap on Draftkings it's almost so disrespectful you have to play them. They definitely have the talent to take down EDG, who are just sweeping teams aside, with 15 games played and only dropping one. They lead the league in most team stats, so it's an uphill battle for Knight and TES.
I think TES ownership will actually be slightly higher than it should be, mainly Knight and Jackeylove, as they can help you fit in the other expensive favorites, mainly BLG, but I could be wrong and I'm playing both sides regardless. Dog or pass spot for me though, as TES should score better in a win here.
Give me TES to win 2-1 and put up good scores at reduced price tags on DraftKings. This is definitely their toughest match of the split so far, but they will bring their A-game in hopes of bringing down the current LPL strongest team. Definitely going to have both sides in this match, with CAPTAINS in play for me in this one, mainly the ADC's and MIDs from both sides.
Top EDG plays: Viper, Scout, JieJie, Meiko
Top TES plays: Knight, JKL, Karsa, Zhuo
7:00 AM: RNG (-187) vs. SN (+152)
The last matchup of the day is the best FADE of the day in my opinion here's why. RNG is struggling to shake off its MSI hangover and adapt to the new patch. RNG doesn't fully have their confidence back so they won't necessarily be going out of their way to smash Suning to pieces like if it were a lower-tier LPL team. Suning has the ability to win this series if their solo lanes show up, mainly Angel, who I think can take advantage of a struggling Cryin in this meta. Suning is a team that doesn't die a lot in losses and isn't a team known to sweep aside the competition either. This one goes three games in my eyes because I think SoFm and Bin will steal a game vs the struggling RNG, maybe drafting something to catch RNG off guard. This series could end up with the least high scoring on the whole slate.
RNG is definitely the more talented team and has the best support in the league vs one of the worst, but aren't playing with the aggression and bloodthirsty mentality I saw at MSI. Give me RNG to win 2-1 in a more macro-focused series, with individual outplays and mechanical prowess reigning supreme over primary DFS stacks for scoring purposes.
Top RNG plays: FADE, Xiaohu, Gala
Summary
- TLDR: Definitely a multiple-entry slate, but my favorite primary stacks/picks in order: GEN 2-0, BLG 2-0, TES 2-1, NS 2-1, RNG 2-1.
- Fade the first LCK match, but find leverage with a primary stack from the second match, featuring the red hot GEN in a revenge matchup from last spring finals.
- I think TES is the best dog on the whole slate, but I WILL also sprinkle in some Suning and HLE, as absolutely nobody should be on them, and they should score better in wins than their opponents.
- Again, I love GEN tomorrow and will be prioritizing them in a large majority of my lineups. Good luck tomorrow summoners!
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