RADIO
Welcome back summoners, to another LOL breakdown article featuring FIVE matchups tomorrow from the LPL (super weekend!) and LCK. Yesterday was a rough day, with some upsets and close games that didn't turn out like we expected. I was too high on OMG and WE in close matchups, and faded a GEN team that swept handily (at least in the second game), but that is esports. Short term memory though, as we try and find better angles to approach tomorrow's slate! As a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings. For FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up mid-REM sleep, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who has recently been starting. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too, and I retweet those starting lineups as early as available(usually at least 12 hours before the matches.)
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Sunday, June 27th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. Odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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4:00 AM: T1 (-541) vs. DRX (+397)
This is the first LCK matchup of the day so lineups should be out. T1 are big favorites here, and are 0-4 in their last four games. They were swept by NS and LSB, and have let down many people in the last two slates they've been a part of. That ends tomorrow vs DRX(2-10 in games) who are a bottom tier team this split, and worse off than last split. They rank in the bottom three in EVERY team stat, and are getting ran over in games. I expect a huge bounceback from T1 here against possibly the worst team in the league at this point. Even though DRX play at a slower pace, they are still dying a good amount, allowing teams to be optimal stacks in sweeps.
We saw KT dismantle this team yesterday, and I expect T1 to come out with an aggressive mindset. T1 take this 2-0 no matter who starts. Just be sure to check in the morning just in case. I like T1 more for secondary stacks tomorrow than four man stacks. TEAM slot is a lock for me if you can get there with salary. CAPTAINS are in play for me from T1, especially since they are priced up, hopefully keeping their ownership somewhat down even though they are the biggest favorites on the slate. I won't have any DRX tomorrow.
Top T1 plays: ALL, by preference (TEAM, Canna, Cuzz, Faker, Teddy, Keria)
6:00 AM: LSB (+114) vs. KT (-138)
For the second LCK series, we won't have starting lineups before lock. Both teams SHOULD be rolling with the same starters from their last matches. LSB are definitely in play here vs a KT squad that has shown the ability to throw a lead/game away in the mid to late stages. In a close matchup like this I usually hold a dog or pass mindset, even more so on a five game slate (LOL I was on WE and NS yesterday.) I like LSB's improvements made from last split, and they seem to have a good grasp on the meta. Croco and Fate have stepped up, and are leading the league in Rift Herald%. The team stats are pretty similar across the board, and both teams are extremely similar in terms of deaths per loss. Both KT and LSB have shown some strong aggressive, early game plays this split so I do expect some blood to be shed. It's the mid to late stages that are shaky and slower from both teams.
I'll take LSB 2-1 in this coin flip match, but primary stacks/CAPTAINS aren't super in play for me tomorrow. I won't have any KT tomorrow after they just broke the slate last time out vs DRX. I prefer to hedge the LPL matchups. This is my favorite FADE series of the day, as both teams have shown aggression, but the three game scores will nullify their chances of being optimal and high scoring.
Top LSB plays by preference: (FADE, Croco, Fate, Prince)
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LPL Matches
3:00 AM: SN (-282) vs. LGD (+223)
This first series in the LPL tomorrow should be closer odds in my opinion. SN are coming off a 0-2 loss to EDG, while LGD are coming off 0-2 loss vs TES. In both matches, both SN and LGD had strong leads at one point in the series, and managed to still throw the game away. SN have had struggles with playing around Bin now that Swordart is gone, also lowering Huanfeng's ceiling slightly from last split, as he is less likely to find 2v2 advantages in lane now with ON. LGD subbed in Fearness last series, and looks to be a fine replacement for Garvey.
SN are a gatekeeper team now in my eyes, and LGD should be the underdogs here, just not by this much. Give me LGD to win 2-1, as I think they have had the better drafts and tougher schedule so far this split. SN aren't a super bloody team in losses, so my LGD plays will be mainly secondary stacks, but I will sprinkle in some four man stacks, as the K + A numbers for LGD are far better than Suning's. For this reason, CAPTAINS are in play from this one in hopes of an LGD sweep, as Shad0w is the team KP% leader by 8% while Kramer leads the team in KS% by nearly 10% compared to the next member. Xiye should be lower owned at captain than Kramer, and draws a good matchup vs Angel, who can have some really off days, just like ON. Won't have any SN tomorrow(Angel is the most expensive mid laner on the slate lol,) as LGD win 2-1. Another possibly decent FADE series for me tomorrow.
Top LGD plays by preference: (Xiye, Shadow, FADE( LGD win 2-1 in not so bloody wins) Kramer, Mark)
5:00 AM: LNG (-190) vs. IG (+155)
This matchup has me going back and forth, but WILL be a banger. I expect a lot of fights and skirmishes to break out between these two bloody teams. I also EXPECT LNG to keep the momentum rolling, as they have beaten top tier teams multiple times this split. But, this is IG we're talking about, the biggest wildcard team in terms of draft and gameplay that the LPL has to offer (arguably). That volatility scales down a bit with TheShy not in the lineup, but still this team has the potential to break the slate. I think it happens tomorrow at lower ownership than it should be, since LNG are red hot and arguably the strongest team in the league as of now.
But IG definitely have the firepower to take down the flaming LNG squad. Rookie is coming off his best performance of the split and you honestly love to see it. Puff and Baolan are back in the bot lane, and can match any bot lane in the league on a good day. Xun and Neny are the young players that could very well be the X factors in tomorrow's series. LNG are the favorites here for a reason, but have showed signs of cracking, like in their extremely improbable comeback vs FPX (another argument for best LPL team) a couple series ago. I will hedge with some LNG, but will definitely be over the field on IG for mainly my primary stacks. Again, this matchup should be pretty bloody, unless LNG fall behind early and revert to their sluggish snail paced style from last split. IG win 2-1, and in the LPL, going three games can still make the optimal primary stack.
Top IG plays, ALL by preference: (Rookie, Puff, Xun, Baolan, Neny)
Top LNG plays: (Light, Lwandy, Tarzan, Ale)
7:00 AM: EDG (-283) vs. JDG (+224)
This should be a quality match to watch, but I'm not so sure it will be bloodier than either of the other LPL series. EDG are a slower team, and JDG have struggled in this meta in draft, resulting in early deficits and slower games in their losses. EDG have struggled early in a couple of games so far this split, but still sit at 10-1 in games played. But something tells me JDG brings the chaos tomorrow. They will come out with a hyper-aggressive mindset as they know EDG prefer to sit back and scale. The fights will break out around dragons, scuttles, and rift heralds. Complete barn burner.
JDG have Loken starting tomorrow over Lpc again, so the biggest mismatch for me in this series is Meiko vs Lvmao. Meiko has been playing insane so far while Lvmao has been forgettable even in wins. We know Lvmao is the main engage tool for JDG, but Zoom is their strongest laner guy and will definitely pop off if JDG pull off the upset, right behind Yagao and then Loken for me. However, EDG come ready to swing tomorrow, in a fantastic display of LPL action. CAPTAINS from this game and from both sides are in play for me tomorrow, but I will be much heavier on EDG than JDG. I like EDG to sweep 2-0 here and put up big numbers and pair them with IG for a nice double LPL takedown tomorrow. Viper is my top play tomorrow on the entire slate!
Top EDG Plays, ALL by preference: (Viper, Meiko, Scout, Jiejie, Flandre)
Top JDG plays: (Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, Loken)
Summary
- TLDR: Definitely a multiple-entry slate, as I see this one going a bunch of different ways but my picks are, T1 2-0, LSB 2-1, LGD 2-1, IG 2-1, EDG 2-0.
- T1 are biggest favorites, but I think they come in at lower ownership than POSSIBLY all three LPL favorites tomorrow and could very well break the slate as a primary stack. Good primary pivot stack off the bloody LPL matches that could go three games.
- The LPL matches do seem like the ones to target, so T1 team is a lock for me if I can afford it with IG an EDG.
- My favorite stacks tomorrow in order: IG, EDG, T1, LNG, LGD. Good luck tomorrow summoners!
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