RADIO
Welcome back to another League of Legends DFS fantasy slate! LPL had the day off today, but we are back to break down tomorrow's slate on Draftkings that has a 20k to first main contest. We have five games with a couple of large favorites, but there are definitely some spots I am loving tomorrow. Karsa faces off against 369 his former teammate, and you have to believe there is some extra motivation for 369 not to die to Karsa's ganks (youtube Karsa flames 369 if you aren't familiar with the harsh words Karsa had to him during worlds.) FPX 's starting roster continues to switch up, as Care (academy mid lane) is starting over Gori, and Clid is back in over Beichuan. HLE should be running the same lineup they ran a couple of days ago but it's not certain that Willer will continue to start. Pricing is pretty restrictive tomorrow, so to play the big favorites you are gonna have to get creative and play an underdog or get to a jungle or top captain which is viable sometimes. Let's get right into this slate!
As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up early, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) In this case, we probably won't get LCK lineups before the 2:00 AM lock, so we are going to try and project starters based on recent lineups. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too.
I'll provide my League of Legends DFS advice, analysis, and lineup picks for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 2:00 AM EST on Friday, March 4th, 2022. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVpickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis, and the odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups, and good luck RotoBallers.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM: DRX (-225) vs. KT (+181)
We might not get starting lineups before lock for this LCK match, but the starters SHOULD be: Kingen/Pyosik/Zeka/Deft/Beryl for DRX, and Rascal/Cuzz/Aria/Aiming/Life for KT. KT has been on a slide recently, losing their past four series, and in danger of missing playoffs if they don't find some solution soon. DRX is looking to bounce back after a loss to GEN which is understandable. KT surprisingly has a better EGR and both teams have a negative MLR, which is the downfall for both these squads. Whoever gets ahead early is no lock to close out the game cleanly. DRX does lead KT in a majority of the other team stats. The last time these two met, DRX won in three games, with the first game being a DRX win with their challenger squad in. DRX's challenger squad is actually really good, but the LCK is a different beast and KT couldn't even play a clean game against these guys but did steal game two vs the normal DRX starters.
Looking at the stats, these teams look closer than what the odds indicate. However, it's very tough to back KT at the moment as they are in their worst stretch of the season, BUT they have faced GEN, T1, and KDF during this four-game losing streak. We were on BRO last time out vs KT and it worked out really well, and KT looked underwhelming in-game. They are not drafting well and are not playing as cohesively as the LCK teams above them in the standings. Aria has stuck out like a sore thumb recently, and Cuzz has had barely any influence in a meta where jungle needs to be effective in the earlier stages of the game to bridge the rest of the team into the late game stage. DRX has found success more recently by playing solely around Deft as their main carry, which has resulted in him putting up some optimal scores in the captain or flex position. Stylistically, both these teams want to play around their bottom lanes, while top lane I actually do give the advantage to Rascal, who has been the bright spot for KT during this rough patch.
I definitely can still see DRX dropping a game or even the series here, as they have the second-worst EGR(early game rating) in the LCK. KT has just looked terrible recently in draft and in-game and has to find some success now if they want hopes of making the playoffs. This is the ultimate buy-low spot for KT and a key series for both teams in terms of increasing their playoff chances. I'll be siding with KT in this one. KT is probably the biggest leverage spot on the whole slate and a great GPP option, so as bad as they've been I think the odds are slightly too heavy here. I like Aiming and Rascal as a small stack, with Aria and Cuzz in there if you want to get to a full-stack. I prefer small stacks for value here in case this one goes three games. If DRX wins, Deft and Beryl are the main focus targets here, as this DRX bot lane leads the team in KP% (kill participation percentage) and will most likely be the driving force behind DRX if they win. It's a hold your nose and pray type of match here, as DRX should probably win but the LCK has shown that anyone can beat anyone this split unless you're T1 or GEN. Give me KT for my favorite value tomorrow.
Top KT plays: Aiming, Rascal, Aria, Cuzz
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5:00 AM: HLE (+444) vs. DK (-629)
For this LCK match, we should see Burdol/Canyon/Showmaker/Deokdam/Kellin for DK and Dudu/Willer/Karis/SamD/Baut for HLE. Baut started over Vsta the last series due to Vsta being out with Covid and it's likely he will be out again. DK is hoping to maintain a half-game lead over DRX in the standings, while HLE sits at the bottom of the LCK standings. DK swept HLE last time out and put up 19 kills total in their sweep, while winning their games by about 13k gold both games. HLE really didn't stand a chance and DK is arguably in better form this time out. Also, DK has put up some very strong scores in their last two series, sweeping LSB and KDF. These are the Damwon scores that people have been throwing money away for, so will they continue to force the issue and hopefully put up the 34-40 kill sweep that we are looking for in an optimal stack? DK put up some serious take-down numbers vs an inferior LSB last series, and in a similar spot today it's possible they can repeat this outcome. Unfortunately, last slate DK's monster scores weren't needed, as EDG smashed LGD (as expected) and RNG swept aside WBG in another nuclear series that resulted in an 800 DKPTs takedown with a DK team one-off.
In a similar matchup, I would hope DK looks to replicate their aggression vs an inferior opponent. It'll be up to HLE however to force the issue early and go at Damwon. LSB drafted for some hard engage and early skirmishing potential in their two losses vs DK, and I expect HLE to do the same here. Last time out, HLE drafted to contest DK in the late game team fighting stages, and they got behind early so that really didn't amount to anything. DK is an excellent late-game team, thrid in MLR(mid to late rating), and can strangle you out slowly of your resources if you don't try to force them into engagements early. Willer is most likely in for HLE, which could be good in the sense that he is willing to look to make plays earlier in the game, and again could result in some higher kill numbers for DK. I think DK sweeps here regardless, but it's a risk if DK can get there in a sweep, as I don't see HLE putting up much of a fight. DK could end up pretty chalky as they are cheaper than other favorites on this slate, so I will most likely be under the field in GPPs.
Top DK plays: Deokdam, Canyon, Showmaker, FADE, Kellin, Burdol
LPL Matches
2:00 AM: JDG (+265) vs. V5 (-342)
We head over to the LPL where first place V5 faces off against eighth-place JDG. This is a match that projects to be a bloodbath, with both teams playing hyper-aggressive and fast-paced. V5 has been the best team in the LPL recently, and Rookie is arguably the best mid-laner in the LPL right now. Photic continues to put up amazing numbers and has really come into his own since joining the team. Karsa and Rich have stepped up as well on the rift and in terms of DFS, while the Church of PPGod is still in service every time they play. JDG has their work cut out for them here, as they've beat up on the lower/mid-tier teams this split but have struggled against top-tier competition. However, both teams have definitely had their share of close games, and V5 has been involved in some pretty dicey games that shouldn't have ended up as close as they ended. V5 is second in the league in GSPD (average gold spent percentage difference) so they are consistently getting ahead in the early game even if they are down in kills early. JDG sits seventh in GSPD and will have to bring their A-game tomorrow if they want to beat V5. The biggest question mark for me tomorrow is how Yagao will perform vs Rookie who is in peak form at the moment. Yagao has been heavily involved in some games for JDG but then is basically absent in the next game. He is the X-factor for JDG tomorrow if they pull off the upset.
JDG is a team I like to roster, and so does the public. V5 is also a team that people want to jam in. I think you need a piece of this game tomorrow, in full stacks or small stacks. That's how high these teams can score in wins or losses, and this match will probably draw solid ownership on both sides. It's hard to pick against V5 at the moment, and they are my preferred side in this one but I will have exposure to both sides here. These teams play such volatile styles and can easily put up 20+ kills in a win. If either side sweeps, they are most likely the optimal full-stack, but something tells me V5 OR JDG isn't going to sweep here. I want to be over the field on JDG here but V5 is clicking on all cylinders and again JDG has struggled against the top teams this split. This game will be super chalky so I will be under the field on both sides in hopes it goes three games and the scores are suppressed compared to other potential sweeps on the slate.
Top V5 plays: Rookie, Photic, Karsa, Rich
Top JDG plays: Hope, Yagao, Kanavi, 369
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4:00 AM: LNG (-958) vs. TT (+622)
This matchup features two teams on the opposite end of the standings facing off. TT is actually coming off of a win against the struggling FPX, while LNG is riding a three-game losing streak after losing to V5, WBG, and RNG, so you can't blame LNG here. They still deserve to be massive favorites here and are the most expensive stack on the whole slate. I won't be spending much time on this one as this is a great "get-right" spot for LNG.
TT did sweep aside FPX, but FPX did not deserve to be -700 against anyone in that series, considering their recent form. LNG has the better players in every role, and although TT has improved since the start of the split, I can't pick them to beat LNG here. TT's bot lane has been very inconsistent while LNG bot lane has been the most consistent part of this team. Light is the top play from LNG here but again it's a matter of if TT gives up the deaths in their losses. I can see it, as LNG will probably look to assert their dominance here in a bounce-back environment and get their confidence back up. Tarzan had a terrible series last time out but I like him to bounce back while Light and Ale carry most of the workload here. LNG sweep, TT in giant GPPs has really high upside as LNG gives up a lot of kills in losses but I won't be getting there. Ale has the most favorable matchup on the team and is an intriguing pivot off of Light tomorrow and a great one-off option too. I like LNG full stacks paired with KT and fading the V5 JDG game for GPPs, as the V5 game will be highly owned on both sides and has a strong chance of going three games, which increases the chance that neither side reaches take down value. LNG on the other hand has proven time and time again they can be optimal in a sweep with their high team KP% and hopefully, the field will be lower on LNG due to their expensive price tags.
Top LNG plays: Light, Ale, Tarzan, Lvmao, Doinb, TEAM (stack em up)
6:00 AM: BLG (-245) vs. FPX (+198)
The 6 AM early morning hammer features the struggling FPX with another roster switch up, and BLG who has been up and down recently. FPX HAS to win this series if they want a shot at playoffs, while BLG is looking to widen the gap between themselves and JDG. Both teams have struggled recently against all forms of competition. Perhaps Care is the missing piece for FPX to finally get back on track, as he does have a very large champion pool and plays the supportive style of champions to perhaps let his side lanes take over the game. Synergy is always a question when new substitutes enter the lineup, but if FPX can turn this game into a bloody one, then that's the environment where BLG struggles to play in. BLG dies a LOT in losses, so FPX is another intriguing GPP play at low ownership.
If BLG wins, I am not sure they will be an optimal full-stack. If FPX wins, however, they can very well be the top-scoring value on the slate and even a solid full-stack. I lean BLG to bounce back here, as I think they can control the pace here, and navigate the mid to late game better than FPX, an area where FPX has struggled and will probably struggle more with a new mid-lane substitute and first-time roster iteration. FPX consistently struggles with the "secure baron nashor into end the game" state of the game, while BLG is fifth in the league in BN% and second in wards placed per minute. BLG's weakness seems to be in the bot lane, where Doggo has been pretty inconsistent recently. Lwx on the other side is going to be FPX's primary carry tomorrow and will be the primary piece you want if you think FPX wins here. It's a do-or-die spot for FPX here, but I'm not sure this is the spot with how they've been playing recently, and it hasn't been against top-tier competition either. BLG should come out on top here and I like them for primarily for small stacks tomorrow, focusing on the solo lanes in Fofo and Breathe. I will have a couple of FPX prayer lineups paired with KT in large field GPPs. BLG could be chalky as well, so I will be about level with the field in this match, and slightly overweight on FPX as the upside is huge for FPX if they pull out the win, even if it goes three games, similar to the V5 series.
Top BLG plays: Fofo, Breathe, WeiWei
Top FPX plays: Lwx, Xiaolaohu, Clid, Care, Hang
Summary
- TLDR: I'll be loading up on LNG, DK, V5, and FPX for full stacks while getting to KT and FPX for value tomorrow. Pricing is restrictive, so you have to sacrifice money somewhere, whether it's getting to an underdog for value or getting to a jungle or top captain. LNG will be my highest-owned stack tomorrow, followed by DK who I like ever so slightly more than V5. I'll be under the field on the V5 match, which should draw a bulk of the ownership since it projects to be the bloodiest game, but hoping it goes three games and each game is a quick stomp so scores end up suppressed. KT and FPX are the really low owned value that I think you need tomorrow.
- GPP Stacks: My favorite combinations for GPP stacks are LNG/KT, LNG/FPX, DK/KT, and FPX/KT. I will still have some V5 full stacks with KT as well.
- Cash Stacks: For cash, I like LNG with KT as well, I know playing an underdog in cash is risky but the pricing is just so restricting tomorrow. DK with a TOP captain seems fine tomorrow with LNG but I personally don't prefer them. I also don't play cash.
Good luck tomorrow RotoBallers!
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