RADIO
Mike's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings, FanDuel lineup picks for LPL & LCK on 2/25/22. His top LoL value plays and eSports DFS recommendations.
Welcome back to another League of Legends DFS fantasy slate! We are coming off a slate with some interesting results where team WE lost 2-1 but outscored BLG, and HLE threw a very large lead in the first match and then was swept by LSB. DRX won in three games against BRO, and WBG upset LNG and have now won seven series in a row. Tomorrow brings a couple of larger favorites than this morning, but should still provide some leverage in certain matchups. Was a rough week for me last week so we bounce back starting tomorrow, so let's get right into it! Luckily, tomorrow shouldn't have any Covid problems in the LCK and the teams playing are at full strength. Peter has been reinstated and will be starting for NS again instead of Effort.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up early, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) In this case, we probably won't get LCK lineups before the 2:00 AM lock, so we are going to try and project starters based on recent lineups. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too.
I'll provide my League of Legends DFS advice, analysis, and lineup picks for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 2:00 AM EST on Friday, February 25th, 2022. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVpickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis, and the odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups, and good luck RotoBallers.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM: NS (+267) vs. GEN (-345)
We might not get starting lineups before lock for this LCK match, but the starters SHOULD be: Canna/Dread/Bdd/Ghost/Peter for NS, and Doran/Peanut/Chovy/Ruler/Lehends for GEN. GEN is second in the league in most major stats behind T1, and NS is a playoff team that has a strong early game but falls apart in the mid to late stages, something that GEN can very well take advantage of. GEN leads the league in GSPD(average gold spent percentage difference) so they are getting ahead and staying ahead, which doesn't bode well for NS. GEN and T1 are simply two teams just ahead of the pack right now in the LCK and are hard to pick against. GEN sits at second in the LCK while NS has some work to do in seventh place, hoping to tie for sixth place with a win tomorrow.
That being said, this is NS's first match back at full strength for about three series, where they were playing with Challenger players due to Covid. NS put up a solid effort against T1 their last time out, which has to account for something, and they played them tough in the first matchup too. NS is a strong team and actually a contender to win the LCK. They have a strong early game, and hopefully with the full roster back, will make some better decisions come the mid and late stages of the game.
All the signs point to GEN here, but I have a gut feeling that NS will show up tomorrow. My head is telling me GEN but I'm rolling with my heart tomorrow and stacking NS. I will be over the field on NS full stacks in the large field GPPs, as they will draw minimal ownership and project very well if they do come out on top, centering around Bdd and Canna. I will be under the field on GEN stacks as they will probably be a popular choice tomorrow. However, GEN is a solid full-stack option tomorrow in cash, as NS games can turn bloody quickly. NS is an amazing GPP play tomorrow in my opinion, and can very well break the slate even in three games. Simply the fact that NS hung around with T1 in both their series against them gives me some extra confidence that they can hang with GEN as well.
Top NS plays: Bdd, Canna, Dread, Peter, Ghost
Top GEN plays: Chovy, Ruler, Peanut, Doran
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5:00 AM: DK (-241) vs. KDF (+193)
For this LCK match, we should see Burdol/Canyon/Showmaker/Deokdam/Kellin for DK and Kiin/Ellim/Fate/Teddy/Hoit for KDF. KDF has been on a heater recently and finds themselves now in fifth place in the LCK, while DK sits right above them at fourth. DK looks to be struggling recently and seems to be in slightly weaker form than the beginning of the split. KDF is on a four-game series streak, that being against teams all below them in the standings. DK swept KDF last time out and since then KDF hasn't lost a series. These teams are pretty even across the board in team stats, except for MLR(mid to late rating) where DK sits fourth in the LCK and KDF sits at seventh with a negative MLR. Considering the team stats and recent form of these teams, I expect KDF to be a popular underdog tomorrow.
I think the odds should be slightly favored more towards KDF, as DK has been struggling to win clean games, and KDF's side lanes playing really well recently. However, I do prefer the DK side in this one. I believe Canyon and Showmaker still have been performing well enough to handle Fate and Ellim, and that DK has been trying new picks for Showmaker and putting more strength on the top side of the map, which has resulted in some sloppy gameplay. Canyon over Ellim is the biggest advantage I see for DK. Teddy has been the primary carry for KDF recently and Kiin has been playing great as well, but I believe Deokdam and Kellin can hold their own, as they did for part of the recent T1 loss, but Kiin should have the advantage over Burdol. Showmaker brought out the Ahri and Akali vs T1 and wouldn't be surprised if he goes back to them here in a more favorable matchup. This could be a buy-low spot for DK and draw lower ownership too.
KDF ownership should be somewhat inflated due to their recent play, but I think it's warranted. KDF is still in play but I won't be playing any tomorrow. Maybe KDF is the real deal, but I see the mid/jungle for DK here taking over with Deokdam playing a solid series overall too. This KDF team has looked new and improved which scares me slightly, but I like DK to break out of their slump tomorrow at perhaps lower ownership overall than KDF. DK or nothing for me in this one. It's likely that this one goes three games, so it's probably likely that neither team reaches value, so it's also my favorite FADE option tomorrow. Small DK stacks or FADE here for me.
Top DK plays: Showmaker, Canyon, FADE, Deokdam, Kellin
LPL Matches
2:00 AM: LGD (-135) vs. TT (+112)
We head over to the LPL where odds place this match at nearly a coin flip. LGD sits at 1-7 while TT is dead last at 1-8, with both teams riding a three-game losing streak. Both squads rank in the bottom third of the league in team stats, and TT ranks dead last in KD(kill to death ratio) and GSPD. The one edge that TT has is vision, where they are middle of the pack in wards placed per minute (WPM) while LGD is second to last or dead last in WPM and WCPM(wards cleared per minute). Both teams have an abysmal dragon rate and aren't finding many baron nashors either. This on paper does seem like a true coin flip between two very bad teams.
That being said, I will be much heavier on the LGD side here. I can see this one going three games though, similar to the DK vs KDF series, but this one should project better for full stacks. LGD is very expensive tomorrow and in a coin flip match, so I expect people to get to more of the far cheaper underdog in a match between two bad teams. However, Fearness over New has to be a focal point for LGD in this matchup, as New is arguably the worst starting player in the LPL. While already being on the backfoot there, I think Jay has been a surprising addition to the LGD roster since becoming a starter, while Eric has been on a solid stretch as well the past few series. Shad0w has his question mark ping moments, but I still think he has the talent to pair up with Jay to overcome the strongest part of TT's roster in Chieftain and Ucal. Again, these are two bad teams where usually I side with the underdog and can be looked at similarly to the HLE vs LSB match this morning, where the favorite could get monstrously ahead and still find a way to throw the game back to the underdog. I'm not comfortable with it, but on a five gamer you have to choose your spots, and again this one could go three games. I will be prioritizing LGD small stacks here, with some LGD full stacks as well. The inability for these teams to close out games should result in some strong DFS scores for the winner, even if it goes three games, but again will be focusing mainly on small stacks.
Top LGD plays: Jay, Eric, Fearness, Shadow
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4:00 AM: JDG (-348) vs. AL (+269)
This matchup features two of the most bloodthirsty teams in the entire league. These squads both play hyper-aggressive and have volatile playstyles. JDG sits eighth place (4-4 series record) in the LPL while AL sits at 14th with a 3-7 record. Both teams come in here on a two-game slide. JDG has a moderate edge in team stats and the better players in every role. AL has been the upset darlings this year, so will they come through again and break another slate?
No, they won't. I have JDG on my LPL best ball team in a league that I'm in ( as well as FPX) so I am bullish on this JDG squad. JDG has had some tough opponents these past couple of matches and very well could've beat TES in their series if they didn't make a critical and questionable mistake in game three that cost them the game. JDG has pretty much beat up on the lower-tier teams this year, and I expect that to continue tomorrow. JDG is my favorite stack on the slate, and I will be prioritizing them for full stacks. AL might end up pretty popular too since they have been upsetting teams recently, which makes me like JDG even more. JDG will also likely be owned so maybe you get different by playing Yagao captain, but still include Kanavi and Missing in there (team leaders in KP%) as well as getting to some Hope captain. JDG smash tomorrow.
Top JDG plays: Kanavi, Hope, Yagao, Missing, 369 (stack up the Jindong GAMERS)
6:00 AM: RA (+153) vs. FPX (-187)
The 6 AM early morning hammer is looking to shape up as an interesting spot for both teams. Both teams sit at 4-5 in series records and are tenth and eleventh place in the standings. RA is on a three-game winning streak while FPX is on a two-game skid that results in Beichuan re-entering the starting lineup tomorrow. RA just beat RNG and looked great, but also barely beat LGD and TT in a rough fashion during this three-game win streak. FPX has been just as up and down and has mainly been struggling to close out games due to their inability to secure and set up effectively for baron nashor takes. RA has the slight advantage in vision and dragon percentage, and the advantage in the gold difference at 10, 15, and 20 minutes. RA is shaping up to be a popular dog tomorrow as well, but hasn't been dominating in their wins but also hasn't been getting rolled over in their losses. FPX has had more dominating wins and actually dies a decent amount in losses.
Clid struggled in his time in the starting lineup, and I truly believe FPX looked better with Beichuan in. Beichuan was moving around the map better with Hang and Gori. This match is nearly a coinflip as well, with both teams being pretty inconsistent. RA is definitely going to draw ownership after defeating RNG, but can we expect the same RA to show up here? I don't bank on it. I am more bullish on the FPX roster long-term, and this could come back to bite me, but I believe FPX has the stronger top side of the map with the stronger ADC as well. These teams are pretty evenly matched, but I like the reinsertion of Beichuan back into the lineup and expect LWX to have a great performance tomorrow. Iboy seems to have stepped it up recently but I do favor the FPX top side of the map more and if Leyan struggles tomorrow, then so will RA. I continue to be impressed by Xialaohu and Gori has been serviceable, even if he gets behind early. Hang faces off against his old squad if you like narratives.
It's FPX or nothing for me in this one, but similar to the DK series, I expect this one to go three games and am not sure if either team can be optimal if it goes the distance. The LGD series can probably score better in a three-game match, and the JDG match as well if it goes three. This match is my second favorite FADE on the slate. I'll be focusing on FPX small stacks and one-offs.
Top FPX plays: Lwx, Xialaohu, Beichuan, FADE, Gori
Summary
- TLDR: I'll be loading up on JDG, NS, and LGD tomorrow. Will also have some FPX and DK in there for small stacks, but the previous ones listed are my go-to for full stacks tomorrow. DK and FPX matches look to be solid FADE spots if they go three games. NS may be the lowest owned team on the slate, but have slate-breaking potential in this matchup.
- GPP Stacks: My favorite combinations for GPP stacks are JDG/NS, LGD/NS, JDG/LGD, DK/JDG, and NS/JDG. I am not buying into the RA hype unless they replicate the clean performance they had vs RNG, and it's DK or nothing for me in the KDF match where KDF will probably be a popular dog due to recent form. Tough slate tomorrow so have to choose your spots, and I like to zig when others zag if you haven't noticed.
- Cash Stacks: For cash, I like JDG with FPX, and GEN with FPX as well. GEN with JDG might be too expensive and might force you into a TOP captain which is tough to stomach but still playable. I won't be playing cash tomorrow but these are the spots I would target.
Good luck tomorrow RotoBallers!
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