RADIO
Mike's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings, FanDuel lineup picks for LPL & LCK on 2/12/22. His top LoL value plays and eSports DFS recommendations.
Welcome back to another League of Legends DFS fantasy slate! We are back after a really solid day yesterday, being overexposed to all the right sides. AL came through as well as V5 which were my two favorite sides yesterday, and unfortunately, all my v5/BRO stacks had Sw0rd in them. BLG was the optimal team as we talked about and I was right not to trust either team in the DRX/HLE match to sweep, but DRX's bot lane did end up optimal so fading that game was a bad look yesterday but it worked out. Was still a great day so let's look to keep this momentum rolling with another five-gamer! Tomorrow looks like GEN will roll out the same roster as the last series, with no Peanut and Lehends due to Covid, but keep track of the team's official accounts on Twitter. They are some great matchups on tap and only a couple of huge favorites.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up early, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) In this case, we probably won't get LCK lineups before the 2:00 AM lock, so we are going to try and project starters based on new additions. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too.
I'll provide my League of Legends DFS advice, analysis, and lineup picks for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 2:00 AM EST on Saturday, February 12th, 2022. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVpickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis, and the odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups, and good luck RotoBallers.
LCK Matches
3:00 AM: GEN (+153) vs. T1 (-187)
We might not get starting lineups before lock for this LCK match, but the starters SHOULD be: Doran/Youngjae/Chovy/Ruler/Lospa for BRO, and Zeus/Oner/Faker/Gumayusi/Keria for T1. Covid struck the GEN side of this one, so they are immediately at a disadvantage. Youngjae and Lospa filled in and performed admirably, but they also dropped a game in their series victory against LSB in their return from the Lunar New Year. T1 on the other hand is still atop the LCK standings and also dropped a game to HLE in their series victory coming back from the break. I don't expect slate-breaking numbers from this match regardless of who wins, but with T1 being somewhat pricey I will definitely be getting to a couple of full stacks because I expect a sweep here.
It's unfortunate that we won't get GEN here at full strength to compete vs the top team in the LCK. Oner and Keria are the two driving facilitators and engage players on the T1 roster, and will be facing the GEN Challenger team replacements in this one in Youngjae and Lospa. Keria is the best support in the league and Oner is definitely a top-tier jungler as well. It's hard to make a case for GEN in this spot to win the series, but it's possible they sneak a game off the backs of their mechanically gifted solo laners in Chovy and Doran. These are the two I would like in GEN stacks if you want to go there at really low ownership probably, but I won't be getting there.
T1 sweeps off the backs of the pressure applied by Oner and Keria, my two favorite players in T1 small stacks which are really appealing to me tomorrow in GPP's. Both lead the team in KP% in wins, and then it falls off to Gumayusi who usually salvages his somewhat low KP% for an ADC by grabbing a majority of the kills. T1 leads the league in HLD% while GEN sits at the bottom. Gumayusi is usually the recipient of the rift herald gold. The TEAM slot is in play for me here as well, getting a nice discount compared to EDG, and can end up optimal if T1 doesn't rack up a bunch of kills.
Top T1 plays: Oner, Keria, Gumayusi, Faker, TEAM
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5:00 AM: DK (-665) vs. LSB (+465)
For this LCK match, we should see Burdol/Canyon/Showmaker/Deokdam/Kellin for DK and Dove/Croco/Clozer/Ice/Kael for LSB. DK are large favorites in this one, and it's warranted. I've watched an unnecessary amount of LSB this split, and they are a mess. LSB has shown they can occasionally get early game leads, but more often than not throw those leads in the mid to late game, where DK ranks fourth in the LCK, only slightly behind the three leading teams. LSB lives and dies by Clozer finding a lead somehow, and that usually comes with the help of Croco. But when you are facing one of the best mid/jungle duos in the world in Canyon and Showmaker, it's a steep climb to steal two games from this squad. DK has definitely shown they are vulnerable at later points in the game, but when they have consistently been finding early game leads, I have no faith in LSB to exploit DK in the mid to late game stages here.
Showmaker has been having a somewhat down split in terms of DFS scoring, and Canyon too. But facing a team that focuses on the mid/jungle, I expect Showmaker and Canyon to be the two best performing members in this one. DK hasn't been a great DFS scoring team to target this split, and that is due to the fact that they will just play the map more effectively than their opponents and carefully choose when they want to team fight. I don't expect that to change tomorrow and expect a similar outcome to DK's most recent sweep of KDF, a low-scoring sweep where the TEAM slot does really well. DK is more expensive than T1 on this slate, but I much prefer T1 stacks if I had to choose between the two LCK matches. DK sweeps and I will be playing the team slot and probably get to some small stacks of Showmaker and Canyon, only because I think two of the three LPL matches could provide underwhelming scores in three-game series, while I expect both LCK favorites to sweep tomorrow and come in as some low-owned primary stacks. There is a chance that DK turns up the aggression against a team that is top five in CKPM in losses, so DK is another appealing LCK stack tomorrow.
Top DK plays: Showmaker, Canyon, TEAM, Deokdam
LPL Matches
2:00 AM: WE (+902) vs. EDG (-1560)
We find ourselves with the second straight LPL slate with at least a -1000 favorite. EDG is facing off against probably the worst team in the league (who I rostered vs JDG lmao) and is bringing Flandre back into the starting lineup to return from the Lunar New Year break. I am not going to spend much time on this one and will apply the same logic to this morning's BLG/TT match. EDG is the most expensive team on the slate and likely won't be able to pay off their price tags because they should stomp team WE in a quick fashion. The argument I can make for EDG being able to sweep AND score well is the small chance that team WE find early leads against a sluggish EDG coming out of the break, and force EDG to fight them more often and contest more objectives in the mid to late game. Another angle is that EDG is one of the higher CKPM teams in wins, and they have scored well vs inferior competition in sweeps so far this split.
It's hard to envision this version of team WE doing anything against the best LPL team, especially without Beishang. EDG is another great TEAM slot play here and perhaps a couple of one-offs are the priority for me in this match. EDG full stacks will probably require you to pair them with an underdog like FPX, which I am not opposed to because this slate should be lower scoring than this morning's slate, but EDG being the optimal full-stack tomorrow just doesn't seem super likely to me tomorrow.
Top EDG plays: TEAM, Flandre, Viper, Scout
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4:00 AM: FPX (+123) vs. WBG (-149)
We've got a close LPL matchup between two of the slower-paced teams in the league. FPX can overtake WBG in the standings with a series win tomorrow, and this is both teams' first match coming back from the break. Both these teams have had their early-season struggles with their new roster acquisitions as well as some questionable game losses and even questionable wins that required some lucky baron steals/enemy mistakes. I personally think this match should be closer to a pick 'em. This is an interesting stylistic matchup where both teams mainly rely on their ADC's to carry and their supports are both top three in KP%. Priority over dragon control should be big in this series, and can also result in multiple team fights around the objective.
I see this match going three games more times than not. The similarity of these teams makes it such a close one to pick, and that is where the draft comes into play, which obviously can't be included in the handicap. I like the way FPX has been drafting this year. SoFm is known to somewhat pick some off-meta champions, while some of Clid's best champions are the ones played a lot in this meta. I have been very impressed by Xiaolaohu in the top lane for FPX, playing the weak side most games and consistently using his teleport to join the team for objective team fights. TheShy has been pretty underwhelming so far in terms of DFS, but hasn't been the sole reason for WBG's losses.
I slightly lean to FPX to win this one, and I prefer FPX in winning situations for DFS compared to WBG in winning games. As I stated I feel that this game should be pretty much a coin flip, so I will side with the underdog in this one. Dog or pass for me in this match and an appealing secondary stack and some interest in full stacks. I won't be playing a lot of WBG tomorrow.
Top FPX plays: Lwx, Beichuan, Hang, Gori
Top WBG plays: Huanfeng, Angel
6:00 AM: TES (+155) vs. RNG (-191)
The 6 AM early morning hammer is looking to shape up as one of the bloodier matchups on the whole slate, but another one that can possibly go three games and suppress the scores of a full stack from either side. TES is known for their trademark aggression and will be subbing in Wayward, Tian, AND Mark into the starting roster. RNG will be running out their usual starting five. TES has been struggling mightily so far to start the split, with new roster additions and now inserting the first look at a new starting five. Was the Lunar New Year break just what they needed to set themselves back on track?
If TES are the ones dictating the pace then this should be a higher scoring affair. If RNG comes out and looks to control the early game and play for later game team fights, as they usually do, then we should expect a slower game. RNG is known to funnel their resources into Xiaohu, who has some stellar numbers in their wins and splits the kill share with GALA. This TES roster switch-up tells me they are putting their eggs into the Jackeylove basket. TES is a great GPP play tomorrow. They are one of those teams (like V5 yesterday) that can score well as a full-stack even in a three-game series. Recency bias probably brings TES in at lower ownership tomorrow than usual, even though people love playing TES. TES could also be the most popular dog on tomorrow's slate and I wouldn't be surprised simply due to name value. RNG is somewhat expensive and can be four stacked with FPX, which sounds appealing in GPP's. The key to this match for me has to be which jungler can control the early game vision and find advantages for their mid and bot lanes, through skirmishes over early objectives.
I am going to hedge this match and play both sides. TES may have found some success with this new roster iteration over the break, and RNG hasn't been overly dominating in their wins so far this split. The same can be said for TES, which is why I think this match also goes three games. I think Mark fits this meta slightly better than Zhuo, and Wayward will be put on some engage champions. I will end up being more exposed to TES but I feel they will be a popular dog, but who knows as people may question this new roster iteration and roll with RNG. Again, I will be hedging this match and loading up on both sides, big stacks and small stacks.
Top TES plays: Jackeylove, Knight, Tian, Mark
Top RNG plays: Xiaohu, Wei, Gala, Bin
Summary
- TLDR: I'll be loading up on T1, TES, and FPX. DWG is another interesting stack. I expect the closer LPL matches to go three games, which makes double LCK stacks tomorrow a great option for GPP's in my opinion, as I expect both to sweep. T1 is overall my favorite stack tomorrow, closely followed by TES.
- GPP Stacks: My favorite combinations for GPP stacks are T1/TES, T1/DK, DK/TES, TES/FPX and RNG/FPX.
- Cash Stacks: For cash, T1 is also my favorite stack, paired with either EDG or TES. I don't play much cash myself if I'm being honest.
Good luck tomorrow RotoBallers!
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