RADIO
Billy Hoffer’s League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings, FanDuel lineup picks for the LPL slate on 7/29/20. His top LoL value plays and eSports DFS recommendations.
Hello, eSports friends, and welcome back to our continued eSports DFS coverage of League of Legends for DraftKings and FanDuel! We have no LCK games for this slate so it will just be a two-game LPL slate again tomorrow so buckle up for another potentially chalky slate, though we do have one match that may end up splitting some ownership.
My name is Billy Hoffer and I'm a big fan of LOL, CSGO, and COD and have been a DFS grinder for some time now. I realize I have some big shoes to fill as I fill in for the esteemed Mr. Malmanger with these LPL picks, but I am going to do my best to give you high-quality analysis and actionable advice for tomorrow morning's DFS slate.
I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 5:00 AM on Wednesday, July 29th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Hofferkid and hit me up if you have questions or need some help with those lineups!
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LPL Matches
JD Gaming (-850) vs. eStar
JDG is currently the number one team in the LPL standings and comes into this match white-hot. ES, on the other hand, have lost seven of their last eight and remain towards the bottom of the standings. ES actually holds the edge in first turret rate as well as first blood percentage. Dragon rates are even between the two squads, with ES having better herald control and JDG holding better baron rates. JDG holds a slightly better gold differential at 15 minutes. The numbers make you think about if this is a potential upset spot but I'll tell you right now, it's not. JDG has an individual advantage in literally every lane. Zoom will absolutely eat Xioabai up in the top lane though I am curious to see where these two top-laners go with champion selections as both have the exact same top three most played champions. (Update: CJJ is starting in the top lane and makes for an even bigger advantage here for Zoom).
The BOT lane duo of LokeN and LvMao are light years ahead of rat and ShiauC in terms of chemistry and overall skill, as they also hold the top two kill participation rates on the team both sitting at 74 percent. I look for eStar to try to get ahead early here as I believe that is likely their only win condition. I think JDG takes advantage of eStar overstepping early and often and finish this series 2-0. It feels like a 40 kill sweep is a very likely outcome here and I would recommend stacking up a four-man from the side of JDG. Yes, they will be chalk but we can use this next match to differentiate from the field a little bit.
Top JDG plays:
- LokeN - ADC
- Yagao - MID
- Zoom TOP
- Kanavi - JNG
- LvMao - SUP
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FunPlus Phoenix (-140) vs. LGD Gaming (EVEN)
This match opens up as basically a pick-em with FPX being the slightest of favorites. FPX has won its last two matches over EDG and OMG. LGD comes in as winners of their last three and four of their last five. LGD holds the first tower edge, while FPX has a better first blood percentage. FPX also holds advantages in dragon and herald rates, with FPX having better baron control. LGD has a much better gold differential at 15 minutes as FPX sits at -455 and LGD at +387. This match is a big one for playoff seeding and I definitely see it going all three games. On a two-game slate, this is the kind of match where I want to play the side with less ownership.
Unfortunately, I am not sure which side that will be. LGD is priced as dogs on both sites and people may feel inclined to play them in order to jam in as many JDG studs as possible. Honestly, this feels like a match where the ownership could be fairly split between the two squads. I am going to give a slight edge to LGD to win here 2-1, but stacking up FPX is also a strategy I can't argue with. I think LGD can build an advantage through the top lane as Langx and Peanut should be able to perform several ganks onto Gimgoon as he is no stranger to dying. I also lean LGD in the bot lane as Mark has really established himself as a quality support in this league. Watching FPX play their last few matches, I'm not sure how they will be able to compete in team fights. LGD is smart and fights at the right times. We saw them take down an elite team fighting squad in WE not long ago and I think they team fight their way to victory here and move to 9-4.
The pick: LGD, 2-1
Top LGD plays:
- Peanut - JNG
- Kramer - ADC
- Mark - SUP
- Langx - TOP
- Xiye - MIID
Summary
- I like JDG and LGD to win tonight, plain and simple.
- LGD/FPX is pretty close to a toss-up, don't be afraid to pick either side, if you want to be contrarian, a four-man stack from this match likely helps you do just that.
- Yagao, Kanavi, Kramer, and LokeN are my favorite captain plays on the night.
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