RADIO
Mav's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings/FanDuel lineup picks for LPL on 8/14/21. His top LoL value plays and esports DFS recommendations.
Welcome back summoners, to a PLAYOFF EDITION article covering the LPL two-game slate that spans over the next two days. The playoffs have finally arrived and the bracket is right here https://lol.fandom.com/wiki/LPL/2021_Season/Summer_Playoffs. I'm back here and still employed even after hammering Suning over LNG on the last slate. It was a great series and Suning nearly reverse swept, but LNG came out on top. They played great in every lane and brought out their big boy skirmish pants. It was great to see them revert to the aggressive playstyle that got them so far ahead at the beginning of the split. They face TES tomorrow, who bested them in three games during the regular season. Team WE handled business vs OMG in 3-0 fashion, looking primed and ready for their match vs BLG. Team WE reverse swept BLG in bloody fashion during the split. Both underdogs are definitely live on this slate, so let's get into it and as a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings. For FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
Roster changes won't need to be addressed as teams should be running the starters that ended the split. Few players hold sub risk in the playoffs so I wouldn't be too worried. Just realize if a player is having a really bad performance, THERE IS a chance they get subbed out mid-series, assuming they have a backup that got playing time during the regular split. LNG may look elsewhere if they go down 2-0 early but I'm not sure.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 5:00 AM EST on Saturday, August 14th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. The odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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THU 8/14 @ 5:00 AM LNG (+226) vs. TES(-286)
This is the first LPL playoff matchup of the two-day slate and projects to be the lower kill total series out of the two. LNG isn't a team to usually run up the kill count through constant aggression, as two of their three wins vs Suning featured 15 kills or fewer. They do play well with a lead and rely on gaining that lead in the early game, which is exactly how you want to play against the aggressive TES. I do think LNG gets a boost in kill totals in wins though, as TES is usually a bloody team when they lose just like BLG and WE. They will look for opportunities to skirmish and fight their way back from a gold deficit, and the scores can truly get out of hand. Quickly mentioning the previous matchup between these two squads, we saw plenty of pre-level-six teleport fights and skirmishes which allowed both teams to bloodily snowball their way to a victory in the first two games. Game three slowed down a bit, and TES controlled the map and tracked Tarzan pretty well.
TES holds a 0.91 CKPM (highest on the slate) and holds a solid advantage over LNG in FT%, BN%, and DRG%. LNG has the lowest CKPM on the slate at 0.76 and has a slight advantage in vision and FB%. I will be mostly targeting this game for small stacks but will have some exposure to full stacks as well. TES is the most expensive stack while LNG is the cheapest. I expect this series to be focused on team fighting and skirmishing over objectives on both sides of the map. TES has now seen LNG pull out some interesting picks and may have some counters of their own to the Vayne for example, which Light looked really great on vs SN. TES has gotten to this point thanks to Knight, who has the best matchup on the whole slate tomorrow vs Icon in my opinion. However, I think LNG will put Icon on something more utility and support-based, like a Sett or Lulu for example, and look to really get one of their side lanes going. Light and Ale each put up at least 20 kills in their series win vs SN, and 369 and Jackeylove + Zhuo have had their share of struggles this split. TES will look to get Knight ahead as usual, and hopefully transfer that lead over as well. The mismatch here is clearly the mid lane, while the side lanes seem pretty even with a small edge to TES. Looking at the whole series, I think the bot side of the map sees a majority of the action here. Unlocking the bot lanes allows for both teams to move around the map and contesting dragons is a key win condition for LNG.
I am still disappointed in SN for not pulling out the reverse sweep, but I think LNG has shown me enough to think this series could go five games as well. I think the most popular combination tomorrow will be a WE full stack and TES small stack. You can fit 4 WE and 3 TES with Beishang and Shanks at Captain, so both favorites should be higher owned tomorrow than the underdogs. It's a tough slate, but I truly think one of the underdogs somehow finds a win here. I admit I'm somewhat hesitant to pick against LNG after they showed me a glimpse of the LNG that made them look like a top-two team at the beginning of summer, knocking down top competition. But give me TES to win here 3-2, as they were the better team in the second half of the split, and have a small draft advantage after seeing LNG draft five games in playoffs. Knight and Jackeylove are still the more talented carry players as compared to Icon and Light, and it's hard to see TES get bounced in their first series especially with how Knight has been playing this split. I will be prioritizing Jackeylove and Knight for my small stacks and will have little exposure to LNG in large field GPP's.
Top TES plays: Knight, Jackeylove, Karsa, Zhuo
FRI 8/15 @ 5:00 AM WE (-163) vs. BLG (+134)
For the second LPL series, we have team WE coming off a clean sweep to face off against a similarly profiled team in BLG. Both teams have strong ADC players that can put the game on their backs. But this meta features a lot more action on the top side of the map, with both squads playing for their top lanes to gain an advantage most of the time this split. BLG got to see WE draft for three games and see where they placed their priority vs OMG. This matchup should really come down to the mid/jungle leads in my opinion, who can then transfer their leads to the side lanes. In their match earlier this split, WE lost game one by failing to dive BiuBiu's Lee Sin level three, resulting in a triple kill and an easy top side snowball. Game two featured a 13 kill Shanks Leblanc performance that took longer for the victor to snowball, as BLG was very scrappy and lost that game by a kill count of 33-20. Game three was Beishang's highest kill game of the split, an 11 kill Viego performance. This game was so back and forth and BLG almost came back by looking for multiple dives and picks. BLG had no business getting back in that game, as they were down 12-4 in kills and had a 4k gold deficit at 12 minutes. If you recall the WE vs OMG series in the regular season that I mentioned the last article, you can conclude that WE are no strangers to throwing a huge lead away to the opponent.
Team WE holds a 0.88 CKPM while BLG holds a 0.85. Both teams are comfortable with fighting early and often, and contest dragons and rift heralds consistently, even if sometimes not the ideal call. BLG holds a small advantage in FB%, DRG%, BN%, and vision numbers. WE holds the edge in FT%. I expect fireworks from this match just like the regular season meetup, as both these teams show less restraint for blood than LNG and TES. I want most of my full stacks from this match and can still see this one going five games and scoring well as a game stack for deep GPP's. I think we see a lot of action through TP fights and ganks around the side lanes, making ADC captains hard for me to get to tomorrow, as Mid and Jungle Captains can see more KP% but less KS% as a trade-off. I think Zeka is the only man for BLG that has an advantage before the draft, but it's really close in every role. BLG has been surging since the second half of the split started and WE has as well. It's should be a real close series, but give me BLG to come out on top 3-2 and advance to the double-elimination bracket. I will have exposure to both sides in this one.
Top BLG plays, ALL in order: Zeka, Aiming, Weiwei, Biubiu, Ppgod
Top WE plays: Breathe, Elk, Beishang, Missing, Shanks
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Summary
- TLDR: My favorite primary stacks/picks in order tomorrow: TES 3-2, BLG 3-2 (I rank these based on confidence, GPP upside, and ownership leverage all weighed in) I expect most lineups to come with a WE Captain, so give me BLG in a coin flip matchup in my eyes.
- Game stacking on two-game slates is certainly viable if you think both series end with the same result, allowing you to leverage yourself by playing the players in the bloodier series. Both of these matches have game stack potential in my opinion.
- I think BLG is the best dog and value on the slate, and I won't completely count out LNG. You had a good run LNG, see ya next split. (trying this again) Good luck tomorrow!
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