LoL DFS Picks for 12/21: DraftKings League of Legends KeSPA Cup

December 20, 2020

Jason Malmanger's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings lineup picks for KeSPA Cup on 12/21/20. His top LoL value plays and esports DFS recommendations.

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! The League of Legends pre-season is upon us, and we here at Rotoballer have got you covered. We're in for a slew of action with the KeSPA Cup kicking off in Korea on Monday simultaneously; the Demacia Cup gets underway in China. We will be getting our first look at some of these new rosters as the teams continue to prep for the 2021 season.

We'll Have a format similar to the world's group stage. If you don't recall, the players that you roster will accumulate points for both games they play throughout the day. Instead of my regular match breakdown format, I'm going for a more general overview of Group A teams. I think this might be necessary to help us reacquaint ourselves with these teams.

Today, I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the KeSPA Cup 2020 slate on DraftKings that lock at 1:00 AM ET on Monday, December 21st, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.

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Afreeca Freecs

Last summer, Afreeca was just not quite a good enough team, and try as they might, they couldn't crack the top four of the LCK. They finished in fifth place with a 10-8 record in bo3 play holding a game score of 21-20. They have replaced their bot lane duo of Mystic and Ben with Bang and Lehends. The top half of their map remains unchanged, with Kiin, Dread, and Fly remaining in top, jungle, and mid. I view this as a slight downgrade overall, but with many LCK rosters fully blown up, I think AFS has the talent to contend for playoffs.

They won the KeSPA Cup last year but were unable to continue that success into the regular season. In group A, they look to hold second place behind DWG in the initial rankings. Bang, while not quite as talented as Mystic, will benefit from a return to the LCK. Lehends coming over from HLE will give him a chance to start over as well. None of the other Bot lane duos in this group are overpowering, and they should be able to keep pace.

The rest of the map remains mostly unchanged, with Dread getting the starting spot in the jungle full time after Spirit retired. Kiin has regressed in the past few years but remains an average league player. Fly is not the particular player he once was, but he will be unlikely to lose games for the team. Afreeca remains a steady if an unspectacular team on paper stacks up as the second team in this group.

Afreeca shuffled coaches by promoting Rigby to head coach. Lira joined as an assistant coach, and he will look to get the most out of Dread. Last split, AFS did a fine job playing to their strengths, and I expect them to be similar in the KeSPA Cup. They will likely focus on slower-paced gameplay allowing other teams to make errors that their veteran roster can exploit. They play Sandbox and DRX on opening day, and I expect them to beat both of those teams. Afreeca will likely be a more cash game type of unit due to their slower playstyle.

Top AFS Plays:

• Dread - JNG
• Lehends - SUP
• Bang - ADC

Damwon Gaming

Damwon what can we say? We hardly knew ye. The reigning world champs took a big hit to their roster in losing Nuguri to FPX in the off-season. The rest of the team is back from the championship squad, and they will look to pick up where they left off. Khan left FPX to return to the LCK, attempting to fill the void left by Nuguri, ostensibly making it look like a trade. It's tough to gauge the team's motivation coming off the title run, but if they show up to play, they will be the class of this group, hands down.

My fear is the returning members may not be up for the pre-season, and DWG may come out flat. They also changed coaches after losing Zefa to T1, but Kkoma T1's legendary coach returns to the LCK to perhaps wreak vengeance on his former team. His one year tenure with Vici Gaming in the LPL had some troubles, but he did instill his more control-oriented style. VG was on the bottom of the LPL in pace, and we'll see if he will adapt his style to match what has worked for DWG in the past.

DWG was the best early game team in the world last year, and they rode that to a title. Kkoma and the loss of Nuguri may pump the brakes a bit, but I still expect this team to be the class of the group and a priority in any format. If they stay true to their style, they have the highest upside of anyone. DWG opens vs. Nongshim Red Shield and DRX, giving them a pair of beatable matchups.

Top DWG Plays:

• Canyon - JNG
• ShowMaker - MID
• Ghost - ADC
• Beryl - SUP

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DRX

DRX was hit hard in the offseason losing four of five members and all of those being downgrades on paper. Only Pyosik remains from the squad that we saw at worlds just two months ago. The four new members all represent a positional downgrade, with the possible exception of Kingen, who returns to the LCK after a stint in the LPL.

This DRX squad has a rough opening day schedule facing both teams I have pegged as the top two in group A, Afreeca and Damwon. When a team turns over this many players, you can expect them to struggle a bit out of the gate, even if adding top tier players. Solca their mid you may remember from early in the 2020 season when he was called Quad. Due to a suspension, he started the first game of the season for DRX instead of Doran. The bot duo Bao and Becca have experience together as we from DRX Academy.

Even though these players have stage experience and indeed experience together at the Academy level, I feel like they will struggle to start the tournament. DRX faces DWG and AFS on day one, another factor that leads me to believe this squad is looking at an early exit from the tournament. I will be avoiding DRX for Monday morning, for the KeSPA Cup's duration, and likely for most of the Spring 2021 split.

 Top DRX Plays:

• FADE

Liiv Sandbox

Sandbox Gaming partnered with Kookmin Bank's online platform Liiv in the offseason to rebrand into Liiv Sandbox, complete with a fancy new logo and color scheme in keeping with the bank's online persona. Their team, however, outside of this cosmetic change remains mostly the same with Effort joining from T1. Unfortunately, this squad could not beat any of the teams above them in summer, finishing a disappointing 7th going 7-11 in series, and finishing eight games below .500 in game-score.

If you do any googling, you might find that On Fleek was suspended for three weeks at the beginning of November for inappropriate language and racist remarks. That ban doesn't apply here as this isn't an Official Event, but On Fleek is not listed on the roster for SBG. This means Croco will get some stage time with the primary team to prepare for that coming lengthy suspension. Sandbox struggled mightily last year, facing elimination from LCK between spring and summer. They increased their standings in summer tho moving up to 7th from their 9th place finish in spring.

Effort brings a mechanical upgrade over Gorilla, but that may be offset by losing his veteran presence with the team. SBG faces AFS and Nongshim RedForce they have the stuff to win both games or lose both. I'm personally favoring the latter, as the roster shakeup with On Fleek will cost them some of the continuity that could have helped them here.

 Top Liiv Plays:

• FADE

Nongshim RedForce

Team Dynamics also rebranded in the offseason, gaining sponsorship from a significant Korean snack food company. In addition to the relabel, the squad has upgraded a few spots. They finished 5-13 in LCK summer with a 16-28 game score. The RedForce will improve on that mark and added Peanut from LGD and Kellin from Gen G. Those two represent major upgrades to me, and this is a team I am high on going into the spring split.

The biggest question mark on the roster is their mid-laner Bay. He comes over from Griffin, having been their backup mid for most of 2020. If he can play to a league-average level, I like this team as a DWG light. The combination of Peanut and Rich is exciting to me as either can carry, and both can take the pressure off of Bay while he grows into his role. Deokdam was fine last split and can bring some off-meta picks to the bot lane if needed. Kellin will help out a lot, even just getting another player with a winning mentality into the fold.

RedForce starts with DWG and Liiv on Monday morning, and honestly, I can see them winning both of those matches if DWG doesn't come to play. They will likely go 1-1, but I will still have some pieces here to help offset the cost of higher-priced players and upgrade my captain spots on DK. Rich led the league in kill participation for top laners and finished top three in kill share as well, only 1.5% behind Nuguri. He's very talented and the addition of Peanut can further enable him.

 Top DRX Plays:

• Rich - TOP
• Peanut - JNG

Summary

1. TLDR - DWG 2-0 (most upside), AFS 2-0 (most consistent), Nongshim RF 1-1 (dark horse), SBG 1-1 (could 0-2), and DRX 0-2 (they lost a lot) those are my official predictions for the KeSPA opener.
2. Keep in mind everyone, while this is a bit more serious event than the NEST tournament that we had some action for, in late November, we are still dealing with a Pre-season tournament. Much like the NBA, NFL, and MLB, we can see stars get subbed out early or not play at all. Some teams will take this very seriously as a chance to try out their new rosters, while others like T1 and Gen G, who we will see tomorrow, are sending their academy rosters to play instead.
3. I've mentioned several times that I'm worried about DWG's motivation here, they are still clearly the class of this group, but if I enter more than a few lineups, I might get cheeky and fade them a bit.
4. I'm excited to be back with Rotoballer for the upcoming season of League of Legends action, and I look forward to seeing you all out there on the fantasy rift. I should be back tomorrow if DK lists day two of the KeSPA cup with a preview of group B, including Gen G academy, T1 academy, and the fascinating retooled Hanwa Life roster.

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