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Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column. It is another lovely day of eating crow, European style. FNC pushed TES to the edge, and Gen G was trashed around the map by G2.
Well, now we're back, and it's down to the final four. DWG gets what they have been waiting for since last year, a rematch with G2. SNG will get a rematch with TES in an attempt to avenge the 0-3 loss in the playoffs. Narratives hang heavy around this slate, so we're going to try to pierce the vale and see where things truly lie.
Today, I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the World Championship Semifinal slates on DraftKings and FanDuel that lock at 6:00 AM ET on Saturday, October 24th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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DWG (LCK) -260 vs. G2 Esports (LEC) +180
G2 lived up to their reputation as the LCK slayers demolishing Gen G in the quarters, but no team has looked as dominant as DWG has all summer long. DWG will be the ones looking for vengeance in this matchup as it was G2 who ended their worlds run last year with a 3-1 win in the quarterfinals. G2's attempting to rewrite history, as last year they were the favorites to win it all on their home turf but fell short with the FPX taking the title from them. Moving on to the finals in China versus another LPL opponent would have their redemption arc written for them. DWG, too, is trying to turn back the clock to the era of LCK dominance, and the last time an LCK team lifted the Summoner's cup, it was 2017 when Samsung Galaxy defeated SKT T1 in Bejing.
This match can be the best one of the tournament, with both teams smart to make some creative moves in the draft and on the rift. Looking at the stats, it should be a wash for the side of DWG. G2 holds the lead in first blood and vision numbers, but DWG has the edge in all other categories. DWG has been the best team in the world all summer, while G2 has been inconsistent. Since week four of the LCK summer split, DWG hasn't lost a series, only dropping two games (one to Gen G and one to JDG) since that time.
In that JDG game here at worlds, we saw that DWG is mentally tough as they were down big early but fought JDG tooth and nail all the way. This series is a rematch that they have waited for all year, and I don't see them imploding the way the other two Korean representatives have in their bo5s. G2 will do their best to match DWG with their usual cross-map style, losing less when behind, creating picks and map pressure whenever they are able, but ultimately the strength and consistency of this DWG squad will come out ahead.
I'll take DWG here to come away with the 3-1 win; much like the JDG loss G2 will find one win via a level one that goes their way, or perhaps in a creative bot lane pick. I'm struggling to gauge ownership on this one, but I believe that G2 will be the lowest owned of any team on Saturday. DWG and TES were likely the top two teams coming into the tournament, and they are still set up on a collision course in the finals.
Top DWG Plays:
- Canyon - JNG
- Ghost - ADC
- Nuguri - TOP
- Beryl - SUP
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TES (LPL) -200 vs. SNG (LPL) +145
TES have had SNG's number this year, winning all three times the teams met, including the LPL summer playoffs' semifinals. In total, TES has taken seven of the eight games the teams played this year. SNG will look to avenge those losses, but Knight has revenge on his mind as well. Suning was his original LPL team when he was promoted to the league, but he was released to make room for Maple. If that name sounds familiar, it's because Maple, Swordart, and Karsa were all teammates on the Flash Wolves before coming to the LPL. With all these personal connections, you know this match carries special meaning to these guys even outside the chance to qualify for the worlds final.
Within the tournament, SNG has been the better team statistically. They lead in first blood, first three turrets, and dragons, with the first turret rates being equal. TES have the edge in barons and heralds, and I think this is to be expected with their strength in both solo lanes. That strength is how TES can win this matchup. While Angel has stepped up at worlds, Knight's play within the lane will limit Angel's ability to get out onto the map. TES will look to keep this to more of a win lane win game style so that when the teams move into mid-game fights around objectives, they can enter those with a natural gold lead off of the strength of their lanes.
SNG was close with TES in several games of their LPL semifinal match and their summer series, but TES won out with their overall talent at the end of both. TES struggles with FNC were largely due to the bot lane, and Haunfeng has looked special in this tournament. Yuyanjia has run it down in lane, while Swordart has been a playmaker. Swordart isn't quite the coinflip level of hyper-aggressive player we've seen from Hyllisang tho, and I think that's where a lot of FNC's advantage was found. These issues are largely correctable, I believe, with a simple sit-stay don't die philosophy. Drafting safe bot combos that come online mid-game while allowing Karsa, Knight, and 369 to showcase themselves should be the key for Top Esports in this one.
Top showed they could take a punch with the first reverse sweep in world bracket history versus FNC. SNG showed they could take advantage of other teams weaknesses in both their series win over JDG and their 2-1 group stage with G2. Again I'm handing out extra credit for the resume, which may be foolish in both cases, but we've seen TES be the top 2-3 teams in the world all year. I like TES here to win over SNG 3-1, but it will likely go all five games if SNG wins.
Top TES Plays:
- Karsa - JNG
- Knight - MID
- Jackeylove - ADC
- 369 - TOP
Top SNG Plays:
- Haunfeng - ADC
- SofM - JNG
- Swordart - SUP
- Bin - TOP
Summary
- TLDR - I'm riding with the favorites and handing out extra credit for consistency with TES and DWG advancing to the finals both in 3-1 wins. I think both dogs are live, but think SNG is a bit more so given their level of play and TES playing overconfidently as we saw that bite JDG in the bottom.
- DWG will be the main core of my lineups for the semifinals as G2's avenue to winning will be scrapping with the Korean side trying to create overloads and advantages across the map. We saw SNG pile up fantasy points in all three games with G2 in the group stage.
- Ownership has me stymied, but I still think G2 will be the lowest owned of the teams. DWG will be the highest, with TES coming in just ahead of SNG. People will overrate SNG slightly as it will also help them force more potent DWG pieces into the captain slot.
- Final two-game slate of the year, and then we'll be on to the hot stove league portion of our season. With DraftKings unveiling their showdown format, who knows, I might be back next week yet to talk about the final and possibly eat more European style crow.
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