LIV Golf: Miami Betting Picks - Matt Miller's Strategies and Best Bets

October 27, 2022

Matt Miller's LIV golf betting picks and betting strategies for Miami. He digs into the LIV golf betting lines to find the best bets and top values.

Welcome RotoBallers to my LIV golf betting picks series. The LIV Golf Match Play Championship is set to take place this weekend in Miami, Florida. The event will be held at Trump National Doral Golf Club and it will be the first full team event of the LIV season. The competing teams will play for a total of $50 million, the winning team bringing home $16 million. 

Trump National Doral Golf Club was founded in 1962 and is owned by the Trump Organization. The resort consists of four separate courses, the most notable is the Blue Monster Course which was designed by Dick Wilson. The Blue Monster Course hosted the WGC-Cadillac Championship from 2007-2016. Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson and Patrick Reed have all won this event which could be something to keep an eye on this week.

LIV Golf Miami Event and Course Breakdown

Below is the official scorecard provided by LIV Golf. The course will play as a 7702 yard par-72.

The event will feature 12 teams made up of four players each. The teams will compete in a match play event running from Friday to Sunday. The teams are currently seeded one through twelve based on their season accumulation of total points. I have listed the standings and team rosters below.

1. 4 Aces: Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Talor Gooch, Pat Perez
2. Crushers: Bryson Dechambeau, Paul Casey, Charles Howell III, Anirban Lahiri
3. Fireballs: Sergio Garcia, Abraham Ancer, Carlos Ortiz, Eugenio Chacarra
4. Stinger: Louis Oosthuizen, Charl Schwartzel, Branden Grace, Hennie Du Plessis
5. Smash: Brooks Koepka, Jason Kokrak, Peter Uihlein, Chase Koepka
6. Majesticks: Ian Poulter, Lee Westwood, Henrik Stenson, Sam Horsfield
7. Torque: Joaquin Niemann, Scott Vincent, Adrian Otaegui, Jediah Morgan
8. Hy Flyers: Phil Mickelson, Matthew Wolff, Bernd Wiesberger, Cameron Tringale
9. Iron Heads: Kevin Na, Sadom Kaewkanjana, Phachara Khongwatmai, Sihwan Kim
10. Cleeks: Martin Kaymer, Graeme McDowell, Laurie Canter, Richard Bland
11. Punch: Cam Smith, Marc Leishman, Matt Jones, Wade Ormsby
12. Niblicks: Harold Varner III, Hudson Swafford, James Piot, Turk Pettit

The top four seeds will get a bye on day one (Friday), while seeds 5-8 get to choose their opponent out of the remaining teams 9-12. On Saturday, the top four seeds will then select their opponent from the day one winners.

The match play format for Friday and Saturday is head-to-head where each team will play three total matches. Two matches are singles matches and one is a foursomes (alternate shot) match. Whichever team takes two points advances. The round one matches are as follows: 

(5) Smash vs (12) Niblicks

Kokrak/Chase Koepka vs Pettit/Swafford

Brooks Koepka vs Varner III

Uihlein vs Piot

(6) Majesticks vs (9) Iron Heads

Horsfield/Stenson vs Khongwatmai/Kaewkanjana

Poulter vs Na

Westwood vs Kim

(7) Torque vs (10) Cleeks

Otaegui/Vincent vs McDowell/Bland

Niemann vs Kaymer 

Morgan vs Canter

(8) Hy Flyers vs (11) Punch

Wiesberger/Tringale vs Jones/Ormsby

Mickelson vs Smith

Wolff vs Lieshman

On Sunday, the format will switch for the remaining four teams. The final sixteen players will go off in a shotgun start. Lowest team total score wins with all four scores counting. The payouts are as follows:

1st place: $16 million

2nd place: $10 million

3rd place: $8 million

4th place: $4 million 

LIV Golf Betting Odds - Miami

Below are the odds for the event as listed by DraftKings:

LIV Golf Betting Strategy and Selections - Miami

There is a lot to digest and break down here. First and foremost we need to acknowledge that the team totals throughout the season are accumulated in a completely different format than what is being played this week. I will be looking much more at roster construction than seeding and season standings. This is a match play event for the first two days and having strong match play players as well as team camaraderie is as important as anything. 

The 4 Aces are the heavy favorites and deservingly so. They won four of the seven regular season events and are set for match play format with big guns Dustin Johnson and Patrick Reed leading the charge. However, with all four scores counting Sunday they are going to need Pat Perez and Talor Gooch to step up if they wish to be crowned champions.

My betting strategy this week will be to take one of the top teams outside of the 4 Aces, who are almost unbeatable at +175, and two longer shots down the board. I am going to be looking for teams who have individuals with strong match play records or teams who I think set up well to get to the final and have little weaknesses.

Fireballs +400

Outside of the 4 Aces, I think the Fireballs are the top team in this event. The format sets up perfectly for them as well. Sergio Garcia is one of, if not the greatest European Ryder Cup player of all time. He lives for the match play format events. The Fireballs also have Abraham Ancer who showed out in his first team event at the 2019 Presidents Cup. Ancer went 3-1-1 and tied for the overall top points scorer in the event. 

Eugenio Chacarra. who is the low man on their roster, is playing some fantastic golf right now. He won the event in Bangkok and is playing with some serious confidence. I believe him and Carlos Ortiz could be a strong alternate shot team if that’s the way the Fireballs choose to go. 

On top of having two strong match play players at the top of the roster, the Fireballs may have the least weaknesses of any team in the field. I believe that all four players can avoid blow ups on Sunday when it comes down to the stroke play format with all four scores counting. Each team will only be as good as its weakest link and I think the Fireballs will avoid having any weak links. 

Majesticks +2000

The Majesticks aren’t flashy and won’t blow you away on paper but I can’t stop thinking about this format setting up perfectly for them. Aside from Sam Horsfield, they look like a past European Ryder Cup team. Ian Poulter and Lee Westwood both have nice match play records and the camaraderie on this team is as good as any. You know the Majesticks are going to bring the fiery European energy to the event. I’m expecting them to roll over the Iron Heads in round one and they are going to be a tough out in the second round as well.

Another reason to love the Majesticks, experience. When you look at Poulter, Westwood and Stenson- it very well may be the most experienced match play team in the field. They won’t panic when they get down in a match and they will surely bring some energy and gamesmanship to get in their opponents head. Poulter was already going back and forth with Kevin Na about his slow play at the podium during the selection show.

I can easily see the Majesticks sneaking into the final four on Sunday. A 20-1 ticket on a team that has a one in four shot to win come the final day is too good to pass up. 

Torque +2800

The Torque are my sleeper pick of the week. The primary reason I love them is Joaquin Niemann. I believe he is capable of beating anyone in the field in a head-to-head match. If Niemann can go 2-0, the Torque would then just have to win one of their two remaining matches in each round to advance. While the Torque are lesser known golf names on paper, the team is deeper than just Niemann.

Adrian Otaegui has returned to the Torque roster this week for the team finale. Just two weeks ago Otaegui won by six strokes at Valderrama. SIX STROKES. If he continues playing like that the Torque have a strong one-two punch at the top of the roster. Jediah Morgan and Scott Vincent round out the roster. Although it doesn’t seem all that intimidating, Morgan is coming off a 13th place finish in Jeddah at the last LIV event. He’s now finished inside the top-25 in two of his past three starts.

Look, the Torque are far from a lock to reach Sunday, but I would be shocked if they didn’t get by the Cleeks fairly easily in round one. That means they are a Niemann singles match win and a split of the other two matches away from reaching the final day. I’ll take my chances they pull the upset in round two and ride a 28-1 ticket into Sunday.

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