LIV Golf Betting Picks - Jeddah Invitational

October 13, 2022

Matt Miller's LIV golf betting picks and betting strategies for Jeddah. He digs into the LIV golf betting lines to find the best bets and top values.

Welcome RotoBallers to my LIV golf betting picks series. The LIV Golf Series heads to Royal Greens Golf and Country Club this week, located in King Abdullah Economic City, Saudi Arabia. The players will tee off at 12:15 pm local time which is 5:15 am EST. There has been a lot of talk this week about LIV potentially implementing a cut to their events as early as this week in an effort to help secure OWGR points. As of now nothing official has been announced so we’ll continue to monitor the situation.

Royal Greens Golf and Country Club was created by European Golf Design with David Sampson as the lead architect. The construction on the course began in 2008 but was delayed for quite some time during the process and was not completed until 2017. The course features Paspalum Dynasty grass throughout and is neighbored by the Red Sea, which will serve as a frequent backdrop throughout the round. The main defense of the course are the bunkers and water hazards which create risk reward scenarios for the players throughout the round.

Royal Greens Golf and Country Club is not new to hosting professional golf tournaments. It has hosted the Saudi International tournament on the DP World Tour since 2019 and the Aramco Saudi Ladies International event since 2020. One interesting note is that all winners of the Saudi International event held at Royal Greens Golf and Country Club are in the field at this week’s LIV Jeddah event. Dustin Johnson won in both 2019 and 2021, Graeme McDowell won in 2020 and Harold Varner won the event this past year.

LIV Golf Jeddah Event and Course Breakdown

Below is the official round one scorecard provided by LIV Golf. The course will play as a 7048 yard par-70.

Over the past four years the Saudi International has proven that there are a variety of ways to win at Royal Greens. Harold Varner won at -13 this past year by taking advantage of the two par 5s, shooting -10 on them for the week. Dustin Johnson won at -19 in 2019 by overpowering the course with his driver and hitting mostly wedges into greens. In 2021 Johnson did much of the same and won at -15 despite not putting well. In 2020 Royal Greens saw the breeze from the Red Sea pick up and winds made scoring conditions difficult over the weekend. Graeme McDowell was able to win by navigating his way around the golf course hitting fairways and greens in tough conditions.

This week the wind is forecasted to be blowing between 10-20 mph over the three day stretch of the golf tournament. With a shotgun start and limited field, there is no need to worry about wave advantages. If the wind does pick up, I believe accurate hitters and players who have good experience in windy conditions will have an advantage. If the wind stays down I believe the course plays to the advantage of bombers who can overpower the course and leave themselves with wedge into most greens. Based on winning scores of the Saudi International I expect the winner this week to be somewhere between -9 and -11.

Some key statistics I will be looking at this week are strokes gained off the tee, par 5 scoring and greens in regulation. I don’t necessarily think you need to be a long hitter to win at this course, however shorter hitters will need to be accurate and on point with their approaches if they wish to compete. As noted above, Harold Varner shot -10 on eight par-5s en-route to a victory this past winner. The easiest path to victory this week is to take advantage of the two par 5s which are both reachable in two. Lastly, I am going to look at players who will be able to hit greens in regulation. Many greens are surrounded by bunkers or water hazards and missing greens could potentially lead to some trouble and big numbers.

LIV Golf Betting Odds - Jeddah

Below are the odds for the event as listed by DraftKings:

LIV Golf Betting Strategy and Selections - Jeddah

Last week we saw a fairly unlikely winner in Eugenio Chacarra. Don’t get me wrong, the talent is certainly there for the former All-American and second ranked amateur in the world prior to joining LIV Golf. I just didn’t think he would be able to outduel the big names and get across the finish line with such little experience in the big moments. Chacarra’s win marks the fourth time in six events that a player over 50/1 has won a LIV Golf event. As a result I will be shifting my card from three back to four selections and adding a long shot option.

Abraham Ancer +2200 

Ancer is coming off a top ten finish last week in Bangkok and looks to have his game trending back in the right direction. When he is playing at the top of his game this course sets up perfectly for him. While not being a long hitter, Ancer is one of the most accurate drivers of the golf ball on the planet. Fairways and greens will be a recipe for success at Royal Greens, especially if the wind starts to pick up. Ancer’s low ball flight should also help him should the sea breeze get strong over the weekend.

Last weekend Ancer led the field in fairways hit, which is a great sign heading to a course that he is very familiar with. He finished T6 at the Saudi International here in 2020 and finished T8 this past winter. The 31-year old was a modest T16 in the field in GIR last week in Bangkok but has gained strokes on approach in each of his last three appearances at Royal Greens. In his T8 finish here back in February he only shot three under on the eight par-5s. He will need to take advantage of them this week but it is encouraging that he was able to have such a good result here while leaving strokes out there.

Brooks Koepka +2500

Koepka was top-10 in driving distance last week and T2 in total putts, ultimately finishing T8 on the week. While it may seem like a small victory, I actually think it could be a path to success this week. I spoke earlier about Dustin Johnson overpowering the golf course, hitting drivers and wedges, on his way to victory here twice. Brooks Koepka may be able to use the same recipe this week to take the trophy home. While Brooks struggled to hit greens a bit last week, this week he is only going to be looking at short approaches into the green with the course playing  just over 7000 yards. If the putter can stay hot he’s capable of winning this thing. 

Brooks is also now starting to consistently play golf again. I touched on this last week and I really believe there’s something to it. Earlier this season we saw him battle injury as well as get married and honeymoon for two weeks through Europe. I’m not totally making excuses for poor play but it’s pretty hard to win golf tournaments when you aren’t regularly playing golf. His best stretch of the PGA Tour season came when he played seven times in nine weeks through the end of January to the end of March. In those seven events he had four top-20 finishes, two of them top-five. Koepka is now playing back to back weeks and for the third time in five weeks.

Matthew Wolff +4000 

Wolff has admittedly cooled off since his hot start on the LIV Golf Series. Last week in Bangkok was one to forget as he only carded one round in the 60s and struggled both off the tee and on approach. He did finish second on the week in driving distance and was middle of the field in putting. That said, Wolff played at Royal Greens in February at the Saudi International and finished T6. He played the par 5s extremely well shooting eight under on them for the week.

If Wolff can replicate his performance on the par 5s this week then he’s going to have a shot at this thing come Sunday. It is obviously a big ask but he should be confident heading to a course that he has had success on in the past.

Ultimately I’ve taken Wolff the past few events and I’m not ready to hop off given the upside he presents. At 40-1 I am willing to take the risk on a guy who has three top-13 finishes, including a runner-up, in his last five events.

Phil Mickelson +10000

Phil has finished 17th and 8th in his last two starts in Bangkok and Chicago. I’m not going to go as far as saying he’s in form, but he’s playing much better than he was at the start of his LIV journey. Phil is shifting toward maybe we should consider taking him seriously territory and the odds haven’t adjusted yet. 

While a 17th place finish in Bangkok is nothing on the surface, there’s actually a decent amount to be excited about. Mickelson ranked first in the field in both total putts and three putt avoidance last week. He also ranked third in the field in total birdies. While you can’t expect Phil to cut out his blow up holes entirely, you can hope that he keeps them to a minimum at a course that he has had success at in the past. He finished T3 at Royal Greens in 2020 and 28th this past year. We've seen Phil win out of seemingly nowhere before, I can't see some positive signs and ignore the 100/1 number. 

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