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Matt Miller's LIV golf betting picks and betting strategies for 2025 Mexico City event at Club de Golf Chapultepec. He digs into the LIV golf betting lines to find the best bets and top values.
The LIV Golf League will hold this week’s event at Club de Golf Chapultepec, located just outside Mexico City, Mexico. Club de Golf Chapultepec was designed by former US Open champion Willie Smith. He died before the work was completed, so his brother Alex completed the project in 1921. Percy Clifford made alterations to the course in 1972. The course is regularly ranked as one of Mexico's top courses.
Club de Golf Chapultepec hosted the Mexico Open from 1944 to 1960, and on several other occasions afterward. In 2017, Club de Golf Chapultepec was brought back into the public spotlight when it was chosen to host the WGC-Mexico Championship, which had been relocated from Trump Doral. The WGC-Mexico Championship was held here from 2017 to 2020, but it never returned after the COVID-19 pandemic. A current LIV golfer won all four years of the WGC-Mexico Championship. Dustin Johnson won two of the four, Phil Mickelson won once, and Patrick Reed won the final event, defeating Bryson Dechambeau down the stretch.
The event will take place from Friday to Sunday and will air on the Fox Sports Network, as well as the Fox Sports App and LIV Golf Plus. Globally, the event will be broadcast in over 160 international territories, Live and On-Demand, free of charge, via LIV Golf Plus.
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LIV Golf Mexico City Course Breakdown
Below is the official Round 1 scorecard provided by LIV Golf.
| Hole | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Out |
| Par | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 35 |
| Yardage | 396 | 316 | 387 | 186 | 515 | 445 | 625 | 210 | 529 | 3609 |
| Hole | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | In |
| Par | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 36 |
| Yardage | 382 | 405 | 622 | 462 | 225 | 501 | 575 | 408 | 151 | 3776 |
The course this week will be playing as a 7,385-yard, Par 71. It is important to note that the course also sits at more than 7,800 feet above sea level, making the ball travel a lot further than it would ordinarily. Club de Golf Chapultepec features tree-lined fairways and trouble lurking if you do not find the fairways or position yourself properly off the tee. Due to the lack of distance and increased elevation, players will be looking to play positional golf off the tee, rather than overpowering the course.
This will be the first time the course has hosted a professional event since 2020, after its four-year stint of hosting the WGC-Mexico Championship on the PGA Tour. There are three former champions in the field this week in Dustin Johnson (2x), Phil Mickelson, and Patrick Reed. Johnson completely dominated this course in the first three years of the event, winning twice and finishing seventh the year he did not win. In 2020 he finished 48th, however, he still has the best history of anyone in the field.
The LIV Golf website describes this course as Valderrama, with altitude. I'm not going to go that far because this course plays much easier than Valderrama, and we'll likely see a winning score this week in the mid-teens. That said, the comparison is fair in terms of needing to hit fairways. In a 2020 interview, Abraham Ancer stated, "There's a lot of trouble there if you're not hitting out of fairways." I'd agree and say that players not hitting fairways this week are essentially dead at this event.
The bright spot for players is due to length and elevation, they will have the opportunity to club down on nearly every hole except par-5s. The x-factor this week in my mind will be approach play. You can say that almost any week, but with a change of elevation and the ball flying further than it usually would, players will need to have their distances locked in on approach shots.
LIV Golf Betting Odds - Mexico City
Below are the current odds to win LIV Mexico City as posted by BetUs. Odds on different sportsbooks are subject to change, so I would recommend finding the best numbers available. Please note that for my picks, I have used the best odds available while making my selections, so the numbers may vary.
Abraham Ancer +3000
It's easy to get sucked into betting Ancer in Mexico simply because of his heritage. However, I like the course fit a lot. He's not the longest guy in the field, nor does he have to be this week. After all, Reed won the last tournament played at this course. Ancer is deadly accurate off the tee and thrives on courses that require positional golf. He won in Hong Kong last year, which required a similar approach, and nearly all of his best PGA Tour finishes were at shorter, positional courses.
Mexico City is just around the corner 🇲🇽
A home venue for @Abraham_Ancer and @carlosortizGolf, whilst players such as @PhilMickelson and @PReedGolf have had previous success around Club de Golf Chapultepec ⛳️#LIVGolf pic.twitter.com/ZZ6g0Xujrs
— LIV Golf (@livgolf_league) April 16, 2025
Ancer struggled in his last start in Miami, but Doral is not a great course fit for his game. Before that, Ancer had three straight top-12 LIV finishes, including a runner-up in Adelaide. He gained strokes on approach and off the tee in all three. I believe that he is in solid form to start the year and should be one of the favorites to win this week in his home country. I was frankly a little surprised by his odds this week.
When I spoke with Ancer a few years ago, he expressed his excitement about LIV heading to Mexico. He stated that since joining LIV, he was trying to find a way to get an event in Mexico on the schedule. I know how much playing back at home means to him and how much support he will have this week at Club de Golf Chapultepec. The motivation is as high as ever for the 34-year-old, and I believe that he can get it done.
Dustin Johnson +5000 (DraftKings)
Although you may not be able to see it in the results, Johnson is starting to figure things out. He had a real shot to win through two rounds in Singapore and played 34 great holes in Miami before imploding down the stretch. DJ has gained strokes on approach in his last two starts and is hitting it better off the tee lately, gaining strokes in two of his previous three starts. He has recently stated his game feels very close to being back.
The kid can move🚶🏽♂️ @bobdoessports @DJohnsonPGA pic.twitter.com/s6IAHj47ug
— 4 Aces GC (@4AcesGC_) April 22, 2025
The veteran has a better track record at this course than anyone in the field. He won the WGC-Mexico Championship two times in four starts and also had a T7 finish. If there is a place to get back in the winner's circle, why not the course that he has absolutely dominated in the past? 2025 is a significant year for Johnson, as most of his major exemptions expire at year's end. If he wants to continue playing in the biggest events, he needs to figure it out now.
Phil Mickelson +6600
It's remarkable at age 55, but Phil Mickelson is kind of back. Phil has finished inside the top-20 in his last three LIV starts, including a third-place finish in Hong Kong and sixth in Miami. He gained strokes off the tee and on approach in all three of those events. He's also gained strokes putting in his last four starts.
Phil Mickelson wasn’t thrilled with Josh Allen’s mind games during their 2v2 match 🤣
Phil: “Can I just say f**k Josh Allen?”
(Via @GrantHorvatGolf / @_54Golf)
— NUCLR GOLF (@NUCLRGOLF) April 23, 2025
Mickelson has an excellent track record at this course. In three starts, he has a seventh-place finish, a win, and a 39th-place finish. Phil has shown this year that he can compete in a variety of different style courses. He had a sixth-place finish at Doral, which is long and difficult, and a third-place finish in Hong Kong, which is quite the opposite, requiring minimal drivers off the tee. I think Mickelson will find himself back in contention this week.
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