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Matt Miller's LIV golf betting picks and betting strategies for 2024 Hong Kong event at Hong Kong Golf Club. He digs into the LIV golf betting lines to find the best bets and top values.
The LIV Golf League will hold this week’s event at Hong Kong Golf Club, located in Fanling, Hong Kong. The Hong Kong Golf Club was established in 1889 with the course and clubhouse being located in Happy Valley. The Old Course at Fanling was not built until 1911 and the clubhouse did not open until 1914. In 1931 the New Course was built and finally in 1969 the Eden Course opened. The New Course and Eden Course combine to make up the 18 holes played at the Hong Kong Open.
The Hong Kong Open has been played since 1959. It is the only club other than Augusta National Golf Club to host the same professional golf tournament for more than 60 years. Several LIV Golf League players have played in the Hong Kong Open over the history of the event and there have been a few notable performances. Majesticks captain, Ian Poulter, won this event in 2010 with a winning score of -22. Cam Smtih, Sergio Garcia, Patrick Reed, Peter Uihlien and David Puig, among others, have had notable finishes here as well. The winning score over four days is typically in the mid-teens.
The event will be played Friday-Sunday and will air on the CW Network, as well as the CW App and LIV Golf Plus. Globally, the event will be broadcast in over 160 international territories Live and On-Demand, free of charge, via LIV Golf Plus. The event is set to tee off Thursday night EST.
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LIV Golf Hong Kong Course Breakdown
Below is the official Round 1 scorecard provided by LIV Golf.
| Hole | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Out |
| Par | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 34 |
| Yardage | 468 | 149 | 551 | 288 | 192 | 447 | 380 | 188 | 493 | 3156 |
| Hole | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | In |
| Par | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 36 |
| Yardage | 367 | 466 | 144 | 529 | 395 | 426 | 411 | 406 | 410 | 3554 |
The course is set to play as a 6710-yard par 70. This course is much shorter than other courses we’ve seen in the LIV Golf rotation but will still present its share of challenges to the players in the field. Travis Smyth, former LIV Golf player and current Asian Tour professional golfer, was kind enough to give me some insight on the course from his experience playing the Hong Kong Open. Smyth noted that “It’s a really short tight track. There aren’t too many holes where bombers can unleash a drive. Everyone will be hitting to the same spots on a lot of holes. You must get it in play off the tee otherwise it’s difficult to score. Whoever is most dialed in with their wedges and irons will win.”
Upon reviewing a hole-by-hole breakdown of the course, I understood Smyth’s comments more. There are many holes with forced layups off the tee. This is either due to hazards or positioning for the second shot into the green. On a handful of holes, it is easier to play from one side of the fairway than the other and players will opt to club down to increase accuracy. Players will need to consistently be in the fairway this week if they want to win.
The Hong Kong Open is consistently won with a score somewhere in the mid to high teens. Keep in mind this is also a four-day event. I expect a winning score this week of something in the low to mid-teens. Looking at the advances weather, we could be facing some wind this week as well. There are some winds in the low teens for round one and then up to 19mph for round two and three. There are a few holes that have elevation changes where the course is far more exposed to wind, and this could be a potential factor to keep an eye on this week.
LIV Golf Betting Odds - Hong Kong
Below are the current odds to win LIV Hong Kong as posted by BetUs. Odds on different sportsbooks are subject to change, so I would recommend finding the best numbers available. Please note for my picks, I have used the best odds that I was able to find while making my selections so numbers may vary.
Given the setup of the course this week, I am going to look for accurate hitters of the golf ball first and foremost. Then I will be focusing on good wedge players and guys who can get hot with the putter. Given the trend of winners so far this season in LIV, I won't be going too far down the odds list this week.
Talor Gooch +1200
I wish the number was different, but I love Talor Gooch this week. So far this year he ranks inside the top five of the LIV Golf League in fairways hit and putting and ranks inside the top-15 in green in regulation percentage. When I think about Hong Kong Golf Club and the type of setup we have this week, Gooch fits the mold of what I’m looking for. He is a player that I can count on to consistently hit fairways and he has a strong wedge and putting game. Gooch is a premier talent in the LIV Golf League and his one weakness in comparison to the other top players is his length off the tee. When you get to a course that takes driver out of everybody’s hands, this helps a player like Gooch.
Talor Gooch, LIV Golf and the Talking Point That Won't Die https://t.co/EROmqXyr7T
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) March 4, 2024
Gooch has finished inside the top-15 in all three LIV starts this year. He was T6 last week in Jeddah, finishing third in green in regulation percentage. Gooch, who is typically a strong putter, was just middle of the pack last week with the flat stick. It is encouraging that he was still able to finish so high on the leaderboard despite not having one of his greatest strengths working for him. The Smash GC member also finished runner-up in Las Vegas and would have potentially won that event if it wasn’t for a bad two-hole stretch on Sunday where he went bogey-double bogey.
International killer? Talor Gooch won three LIV Golf League events last year, all of which were international events. He won LIV Adelaide in Australia, LIV Singapore and LIV Andalucia in Spain. As Gooch is trending toward a win, it would be fitting he picks one up internationally yet again.
Louis Oosthuizen +2000
Louis Oosthuizen is on fire right now. He finished T2 last week in Jeddah, 2nd at the International Series Oman, 50th in Las Vegas, T8 in Mayakoba and won back-to-back events in South Africa over the course of his last six starts. How is two wins and two seconds in six events for recent form? Similar to Gooch, Oosty isn’t the longest player in the world so coming to a course which takes driver out of players hands is a positive for the veteran South African.
There is also the motivation factor for Oosthuizen. As we know, Joaquin Niemann received a special exemption into next month’s Masters for his recent play. Many are suggesting the South African deserves a nod as well for recent form. I don’t know if it will happen or not but a win this week could apply even more pressure for Augusta National Golf Club to extend an invite Oosthuizen’s way for this year’s Masters.
Abraham Ancer +4000
I can’t quit Abraham Ancer. Last week’s T12 in Jeddah produced a lot of positives for Ancer despite a disappointing final round. Ancer birdied six straight holes at one point on Saturday and was just four shots back heading into Sunday’s final round. Unfortunately, he kind of kept it in neutral all day and finished just outside the top ten. Nonetheless, what I loved was a sign of life from the putter.
Ancer had been an accurate driver of the golf ball in LIV’s first two events and had good green in regulation numbers as well. None of it mattered because he was one of the worst putters in the field in Mayakoba and Las Vegas. Last week in Jeddah he finished T6 in the field in putting and if the putter finds life, I can’t help but think that this is a nice stop for him.
Ancer thrives on short courses that demand accuracy off the tee. I think of his success on the PGA Tour at courses like Harbour Town and other tight positional tracks. This is not far off from what we’re getting this week in Hong Kong, a short track that demands accuracy to have a chance to win. If Ancer can carry over his putting performance in Jeddah, I expect him to be in the mix come Sunday.
David Puig +4500
I think David Puig is a terrific young talent. He finished inside the top five multiple times last season in the LIV Golf League and I believe he is due for a breakout win this season. At just 22 years old, Puig has already racked up some accomplishments. He was a star at Arizona State University and a recipient of the 2021 Catalan Player of the Year award.
In the past 6 months Puig has picked up two worldwide wins. In October he won the International Series Singapore and then just three weeks ago he won the Malaysia Open. I believe closing out professional events is going to give Puig a lot of confidence moving forward when he is in contention. Last week in Jeddah he finished T15 but ranked second in the field in total birdies with 17 on the week. If he cut down on some mistakes, I think a breakthrough is coming sooner than most think.
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