LIV Golf Betting Picks - 2023 London

July 6, 2023

Matt Miller's LIV golf betting picks and betting strategies for 2023 London event at the Centurion Club. He digs into the LIV golf betting lines to find the best bets and top values.

The LIV Golf League will hold this week’s event at the Centurion Club, in St Albans, England. This week will mark the first time in the history of LIV Golf that we see a repeat venue. Centurion Club hosted the inaugural LIV event just over a year ago, which was won at -7 by Charl Schwartzel. A big crowd is expected to be on hand this week, as tickets are already sold out for Sunday.

LIV Golf London will be the second straight tournament played in Europe, after last week’s stop at Valderrama. Talor Gooch was victorious last week, claiming his third victory of the season. There are six players in the field this week from the United Kingdom: Ian Poulter, Lee Westwood, Graeme McDowell, Paul Casey, Laurie Canter and Richard Bland. Ian Poulter recently spoke about his excitement about having another event in London, encouraging fans to come out to the course and sell out the event.

The event will be played Friday-Sunday and will air on the CW Network in 100% of U.S. markets, as well as the CW App and LIV Golf Plus. Globally the event will be broadcasted in over 160 international territories Live and On-Demand, free of charge, via LIV Golf Plus.

LIV Golf London Course Breakdown

Below is the official round one scorecard provided by LIV Golf.

The Centurion Club opened in July of 2013. The course was designed by Simon Gidman, a relatively unknown designer at the time. The idea behind the design was variation. The first five holes are surrounded by woodland, holes 6 and 8-13 have an open style, and 14-18 are grove-like holes. Gidman believed in variety throughout a golf course and even quoted Donald Ross saying, “variety is the spice of golf, just as it is in life.” The course this week will play as a 7,068-yard par-71.

Distance won’t be a defense of this course, but players will be tested. Last year’s -7 winning score is one of the highest winning scores we’ve seen in a LIV event. Players will need to be accurate this week and sharp on approach shots to avoid the many hazards in play at the Centurion Club. There are 80 bunkers and four water hazards in play this week so wayward shots are going to leave players penalized. In addition, it looks like the weather is calling for a steady dose of double-digit wind blowing throughout the weekend.

LIV Golf Betting Odds - London

Below are the current odds to win as presented by BetUS. Odds on different sportsbooks are subject to change.

LIV Golf Betting Strategy & Selections - London

This week I am looking for accurate players who are creative and can work their way around a course. Guys won't need to try and overpower the Centurion Club, and if they do they will find themselves in many of the hazards the course has to offer. I am looking for players who will play out of the fairway, as well as guys who have a proven track record grinding through difficult events.

Joaquin Niemann +2000

It’s been a pretty disappointing season so far for Joaquin Niemann. The 24-year-old started strong with a couple of top ten finishes in the Middle East and a T16 finish at the Masters. Since then, it’s been underwhelming from one of the most talented players in the LIV Golf League. The good news is Niemann still has time to turn it around. There are five tournaments left in the LIV Golf season before the finale, as well as the final major of the season, the Open Championship. Plus, this number is just too big to pass on. One of the best players in the field at +2000 is a must play.

If we take a deeper look at the root of Niemann’s issues, it’s been the putter. He ranks 8^th in the LIV Golf League in Green in Regulation percentage, which tells me the irons aren’t killing him. However, hitting greens hasn’t turned into birdies. Niemann ranks 23^rd in total birdies and a large reason is his putting average, where he ranks T37 in the league. The good news here is that putting is the stat that fluctuates the most on a week-to-week basis.

When I look at the course, I think it sets up well for Niemann’s game. He’s the fifth longest hitter statistically in the LIV Golf League and he’s heading to a shorter course. Theoretically, Niemann should be able to club down a lot this week, which in turn will help him play out of the fairway. Five of the par-4’s this week play less than 440 yards and three of the par-5s play less than 540. Looking at Niemann’s time on the PGA Tour, despite being a long hitter, he played well on shorter positional courses. His track record at the RBC Heritage is a prime example of that. All we need is the putter to turn around a little, and Niemann is going to see himself on the podium.

Ian Poulter +6000

Ian Poulter is coming off his second-best finish of the season last week, a T13 at Valderrama. Poulter hasn’t exactly been a birdie maker this season, but he won’t need to be this week. With all the trouble on the course, it really is a plot your way around and grind it out type of event. We saw this style from him last week in Andalucia, he played smart and hung around all week until Sunday.

I know we haven’t necessarily seen Poulter contend in a while, but if there’s an event he’s going to do it at, it’s this one. Poulter elected not to try to qualify for the U.S. Open or Open Championship, which tells me his focus is no longer on the majors or big events. His home LIV event is without a question the most meaningful event on the schedule to him and he will have full support of the crowd. Poulter played in the inaugural event last year, so he’s seen the course before. It’s a bit of a reach but I have a gut feeling that Poulter is going to hang around this week.

David Puig +7500

Count me all the way in on the David Puig bandwagon. The 21-year-old, who was the 2021 Catalan Player of the Year, has officially hit his stride. In his last three events he has finished T12 in DC, T39 at the U.S. Open and solo 7 at Valderrama. The seventh-place finish last week was even more impressive after he shot +3 in the opening round. His -7 score over the weekend was fourth best in the field.

I think there was a transition period Puig had to go through when joining LIV. He was a 20-year-old diving into a newly established professional golf league and facing a ton of criticism. It’s safe to say the transition period is over and Puig has arrived. Puig is long off the tee and already a fantastic putter. Puig ranks tied for second on the season in putting average. Last week he spoke to LIV’s Mike McCallister about his driving, saying “I’m driving the ball pretty well right now and putting it where I want.” If the 21-year-old can continue to do that this week and putt the way he has been, we may be seeing a breakthrough winner similar to Chacarra last year.

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