LIV Golf Betting Picks - 2023 Bedminster

The LIV Golf League will hold this week’s event at Trump National Golf Club Bedminster, in Bedminster, New Jersey. Trump Bedminster has been featured multiple times on Golf Digest’s top 100 courses in the United States list and was host to the 2017 U.S. Women’s Open. Trump Bedminster was originally selected to host the 2022 PGA Championship, but the event was relocated due to political reasons.

This will be the second consecutive year that Trump National Golf Club Bedminster is featured on the LIV schedule. I attended the event last year and will be back on site this year, speaking with players and walking the course all three days. The feedback from players last year was very positive, although many talked about the difficulty of the course.

The event will be played Friday-Sunday and will air on the CW Network in 100% of U.S. markets, as well as the CW App and LIV Golf Plus. Globally the event will be broadcasted in over 160 international territories Live and On-Demand, free of charge, via LIV Golf Plus.

 

LIV Golf Bedminster Course Breakdown

Below is the official round one scorecard provided by LIV Golf.

Hole	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Out
Par	4	4	4	3	4	4	3	5	4	35
Yardage	514	410	460	206	463	438	186	590	450	3716
Hole	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	In
Par	4	4	4	4	3	5	3	4	5	36
Yardage	416	413	427	438	251	596	185	502	580	3808

 

The Old Course at Trump National Golf Club Bedminster was designed by Tom Fazio and opened for members in 2004. The course is long and challenging. This week it will play as a 7524-yard par-71, with Bentgrass fairways and greens and Kentucky Bluegrass rough. There will also be fescue featured if you miss wide enough on some holes. 68 bunkers are featured on the course as well as water on several holes.

Last year the course played difficult with only 16 players out of 48 shooting under par. Henrik Stenson won the event at -11, fighting off a surging Matthew Wolff down the stretch on Sunday. Wolff had the round of the tournament shooting -7 on Sunday and getting himself back into contention. Dustin Johnson, Carlos Ortiz, and Patrick Reed rounded out the top five.

Looking at last year’s leaderboard, Johnson and Wolff certainly fall into the category of bombers who were able to use their distance to score on this course. Patrick Reed, while not a bomber, also has a history of playing well on long tough courses. However, Stenson and Ortiz being inside the top-5 shows that you don’t necessarily need to be a bomber to contend at Bedminster.

 

LIV Golf Betting Odds - Bedminster

Below are the current odds to win as presented by BetUS. Odds on different sportsbooks are subject to change.

LIV Golf Betting Strategy & Selections - Bedminster

This week I am going to spread out my card with three guys in the mid range. I'm taking into account recent form as well as history at this event last season. I am going to be looking at players who I believe can work their way around a tough course and who have a proven track record of doing so.

 

Sergio Garcia +2300

Sergio finished T12 last week in West Virginia and never really contended throughout the week. However, I love how he closed the weekend with a 63 on Sunday to grab momentum heading into this week. He will also come to Bedminster with confidence in course history. Sergio finished T6 here last year, shooting under par in all three rounds. In an event where two thirds of the field finished even par or worse, three consecutive rounds under par is an impressive feat.

 

The distance at Bedminster will not be an issue for Garcia. He is a long enough hitter off the tee and a historically elite ball striker. He ranks sixth on the season in the LIV Golf League in greens in regulation, his issue has just been the putting. Sergio is T38 on the season in putting. However, looking at the leaderboard from last year and the course setup for this year, this will be far from a birdie fest. Sergio won’t need to worry about making a ton of birdie putts in order to win. If he hits greens in regulation and two putts for par, that will be a good score on the majority of holes. This week will be all about taking advantage of the par-5s for the veteran. If he does that, I believe he has a great chance to win come Sunday.

 

Carlos Ortiz +3400

Ortiz has quietly been playing some solid golf, finishing T14 or better in three of his last four starts in the LIV Golf League. He finished T7 last week at LIV Greenbrier and shot a (-6)64 to close the week on Sunday. He now heads to Bedminster, where he finished solo fourth last year shooting under par in all three rounds and finishing eight under par for the week. There are a lot of positive signs for the Mexican heading into this week and with three top-five finishes in his LIV Golf career, it may be time for Ortiz to get one across the finish line.

Ortiz has had a nice statistical year so far in 2023. He hasn’t been the most accurate driver of the golf ball at times, but he is 14^th in driving distance, 11^th in putting and ranks inside the top-ten in total birdies. The potential is there for Ortiz to win if he can put it all together one of these weeks. This week the key is going to be driving the ball accurately. If the 32-year-old can consistently find the fairway off the tee, I believe he could repeat his performance from last year at this course and have a chance to win on the weekend.

 

Matthew Wolff +4100

Anytime you bet Matthew Wolff you’re playing with fire to a degree. Wolff is one of, if not the most volatile player in the league. His last three starts are a perfect indication of that, finishing 44^th, 47^th and then an unexpected T3. Although when you dive into the off the course mental dynamic of it, it really isn’t all that unexpected. Wolff was noticeably upset after being called out by captain Brooks Koepka a few weeks back and his performance plummeted as a result. The two made up prior to last week and Wolff went out and fired a first round 61, leading Team Smash in scoring for the tournament.

If Wolff is back in a good head space, this is a great spot for him. I was following Wolff in person on Sunday last year at Bedminster and saw him light up the course, shooting seven-under, and almost chasing down Henrik Stenson to win the event. He is a fiery player and rides momentum in both good and bad ways on the course. Coming off of a great result and heading to a spot he’s great success, I think this is a tremendous spot to buy in on Wolff.

 

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