RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! What an opening day. I went 4-1 on my picks with the one being a -750 favorite going down despite the 88% implied odds to win. As we said on Twitter, I gladly would have gone 3-2 if it meant that ML could have lost game one. Jokes aside, TL did have the upside we were looking for, putting up 22 kills in their win over MAD. That propped up many of my lineups, leading to more green than I was expecting after the LGD debacle.
There's no rest for the wicked (literally, as I haven't slept much since this tournament started) as we hop into Saturdays early slate. As always, the Esports crew here at Rotoballer will be here with you all the way, so stay tuned!
Today, I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the World Championship play-in early slates on DraftKings that lock at 4:00 AM ET on Saturday, September 26th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: Rainbow7 (LLA) -145 vs. V3 (LJL)
We got our introduction to R7 yesterday, and it was right along the lines of what I was expecting. PSG looked great, but R7 looked outgunned. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't win a game. Now let me tell you about one of my favorite darkhorse teams in the play-in stage. V3 esports from the LJL is a new face to international competition as Detonation Focus Me has represented the LJL at every global event since 2017. DFM also defeated V3 in the 2019 summer and 2020 spring knocking them from the playoffs both times. DFM was also up on V3 2-1 in this summers finals until V3 engineered the comeback behind their excellent team fighting. That will be a new wrinkle in the LJL's arsenal this year as DFM has relied on the solid macro play and cheesy mid lane picks in the past (apologies to Ceros).
LJL has typically been relatively weak in international play, but V3 should develop some newfound confidence coming off the win in the playoffs. They feature one of the best junglers in the play-ins in former Flash Wolf Bugi. He had a 76.5 kill participation with a crazy 29.6 kill share on the year, but went nuts in the playoffs, upping that to 82.8% and 33.4%. I can't wait to see what he brings to the stage for the play-ins. So if you couldn't guess by yesterday's picks and that intro, I like V3 to win here. V3 They have better first blood, herald, first turret, dragon, baron, and gold differential at 15 statistics. Another point in favor of V3 is that R7 and the LLA, in general, are a very slow league. I think we see V3 get ahead in the early game and snowball from there. I'll take my boys from the LJL to get the win and start their path to groups.
Top V3 Plays:
- Bugi - JNG
- Archer - ADC
- Raina - SUP
- Paz- TOP
4:50 AM: INTZ (CBLOL) vs. Papara SuperMassive (TCL) -200
We saw INTZ yesterday going 0-2 but looking very competitive, pushing both MAD and Legacy to the brink. ITNZ sluggish starts to games hurt them as they averaged -2924 gold differential at 15 minutes, so even though MAD and LGC tried desperately to give those games away, they were eventually able to bring their wallets to bear on INTZ and put them away. INTZ showed better than I thought they would, making overall smart map decisions and playing well despite being a bit undermanned in terms of talent. Things won't get easier for them today.
And now, drumroll please, the super team from the TCL Papara SUPERMASSIVE. Armut, Bolulu, and Zeitnot are some of the top players in the region, combine that with the high impact imports Kakao and SnowFlower to get another championship for the TCL squad. The last time Zeitnot and Snowflower played together, SM also went to worlds in 2018. Looking at the stats, SM looks like a better early game team despite a disadvantage in first blood. They hold the lead in first turret, rift heralds, dragons, and gold differential at 15. INTZ does answer with better vision numbers and a better baron percentage. SM should build enough of an early lead that they can make like MAD Lions did versus INTZ in the opener and eventually wear them down, beating them with their pocketbooks.
TCL is historically a stronger region than CBLOL, and I look for that trend to continue here. SM also brings a higher winning percentage on the red side than blue into the match. They were 12-4 on red during the summer split, including playoffs. Kakao smurfed during those playoffs with 76% kill participation and 23% kill share. The bot and top lanes seem pretty even between the teams, but I give the mid jungle duo advantage over to the Turks. Bolulu has been spectacular, leading the team in both KP% and KS% on the year. With the duo advantage, a better early game, and a stronger region to build them up, I like SuperMassive to get the win here to close out the first early slate on Saturday.
Top SM Plays:
- KaKAO - JNG
- Bolulu - MID
- Zeitnot - ADC
- Snowflower - SUP
Summary
- TLDR - two slates to TLDRs. Supermassive and V3 win both via jungle diff. LJL has been historically weaker, but I expect V3 to break that trend. If you don't buy it, R7 is a fair play.
- R7 is very slow, averaging below 14 kills in wins and not quite 13 deaths in losses that will make the SM/INTZ side of things the match to target. You could probably talk me into a game stack there, especially with INTZ giving up 18 deaths in their losses.
- I talk about KPW and DPL a lot, but DPL is the highest correlating factor in killing for a winning side. See also TL yesterday, as they only average 15 kills in their wins, and their CKM is .57, the worst in an already slow region. Give them the right matchup; MAD averaging 20.3 deaths in their losses and viola 22 kills in a win as MAD looked to scrap their way back into that game.
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5:40 AM: V3 (LJL) vs. Unicorns of Love (LCL) -205
Here comes the real test for my underdog pick, they face the nearly undefeated LCL champions Unicorns of Love. The last time many of us saw UOL, they were at play-ins last year thumping Clutch Gamings (now Dignitas) and pushing Splyce (now MAD Lions) to the limit in a BO5 to advance to the main stage. They followed that up by replacing their bot lane and proceeding to destroy the LCL en route to a return to worlds. Seriously killed, they lost two games all year, one in spring and one in summer, perfectly balanced as all things should be. Looking at the stats will be a rough go of things as you might expect a team that doesn't lose has some pretty impressive numbers. V3 was great in the regular season posting a 2.13 KDA; UOL was better with a 2.42.
Both teams were also good in the early game V3 had a better first blood rate with 86% compared to 67%, but UOL has the lead in first turret 92% to 64%, herald 88% to 67%, and gold differential at 15 with 2651 to 1757. If you look at UOL in the playoffs where they sustained a loss, their numbers drop slightly to 86% first turret, 57% rift herald, and 1771 GD@15. Those look a bit more manageable and somewhat comparable to V3. Based on the playoff numbers, V3 will have the edge in Drakes with Barons being close, and V3 will have better vision stats. It's hard to find anything negative about the LCL's representative; one odd thing is that the LCL is the only region I've seen with a better win rate for red side teams. They sit at 57% in the summer split, while most other regions are nearly the total opposite averaging around 55% win rate for blue. UOL will have red for this match, but it was also the side they sustained their only loss in the playoffs on.
I think what we will see here in the debut from UOL is similar to what we got from the other most successful team in the play-ins Legacy. Legacy was the better team, but they were not as much better as they expected to be, which was very bad for Raes and Isles in particular. The ADC was overaggressive constantly due to what I assume is hubris. Being able to outplay in a region they dominated, he found out the hard way that wasn't to be the case versus better competition. With V3 having a game under their belt already at this point, I think they will have warmed up, and UOL will be coming in expecting to run away with this game. Historically speaking, LJL hasn't been as strong as the LCL, although we did see DFM take a game from the same Splyce squad that UOL nearly took down last year. Unfortunately for me, that is not analysis it is merely conjecture, using my gut or maybe my heart instead of my head. Unicorns are a team with previous worlds experience and success from a stronger region, and that should be enough to seal the win for them. I still like my narrative bit of theory crafting along with my feeling that UOL will be over-owned due to their success in the home region and in last year's worlds. So while UOL is likely the correct play, I will take V3 to pull the upset here.
Top UOL Plays:
- AHaHaCiK - JNG
- Nomanz - MID
- SaNTaS - SUP
- Gadget - ADC
Top V3 Plays:
- Bugi - JNG
- Archer - ADC
- Raina - SUP
- Paz - TOP
4:50 AM: LGD (LPL) -950 vs. Rainbow7 (LLA)
Time for that anime redemption arch, and it is needed big time. LGD let everyone down yesterday, but I think we've seen that R7 is going to be overmatched at nearly every turn. PCS (LMS) has produced several squads over the years capable of making noise at international tournaments, so it isn't a massive surprise that Talon went 2-0 yesterday. Upside if LGD loses this one, they can just FF the rest of the tournament, and they won't have a very long flight home. Like yesterday's match for R7, their best player is their jungler, but they will be playing a team with a stronger jungler. R7 showed heart in their loss to PSG, something that LGD seemed to lack. LGD looked like they were worried about losing and played that way. I am worried about their mental state going into this match, but given the LLA squad's passive nature, I think LGD should be able to get the ball rolling here and snap out of their funk in time to find a way out of play-ins. Remember last year when FPX lost in groups to J-Team, and similar hysterics abounded before they righted the ship to the tune of 3-0 over G2 in the grand final. I don't know that I agree with Jake or see LGD going that far (NO WAY), but they will rebound here and take down R7.
Top LGD Plays:
- Kramer - ADC
- Peanut - JNG
- Xiye - MID
- Mark - SUP
Summary
- TLDR - For reasons unknown (BUGI FANDOM), I'm taking V3 and LGD to get the wins here. UOL likely win as they are the more experienced team from a historically stronger region, but I like my odds betting on Bugi.
- The numbers for UOL throw many things off, and they give up over 19 deaths in their losses. You know, both of them. Small sample size, but overall I like the first game as the better fantasy option of the two. Both teams have some of the higher pace stats in their regions, and if UOL is behind, they will fight to get out of the hole.
- I think LGD rebounds, but if you want, they do average 17.5 deaths in their losses. Big if, but IF they come out as tight as they were yesterday, maybe R7 take them out. I don't see it, but for all my trepidations, I had zero Talon lineups yesterday.
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