RADIO
Despite seeing reasons to back nearly every team on the slate sticking to the TLDR picks of Gen/KT/IG/BLG led to a profitable night, didn't have enough IG as they trolled their way to victory again.
I’m going to keep riding and sticking with the numbers and picks I've got and wait for the variance to swing my way.
Let's hop back in the saddle again as I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK/LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel locking at 4:00 AM on Sunday, July 19, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
LCK Matches
4:00 AM SeolHaeOne Prince vs. Hanawa Life Esports (-125)
Luckily for any of us willing to dip our toes into this mire, it will be the early game on the LCK side, and so we will have confirmed starters ahead of time. These two teams opened up the split with a disappointing 2-1 win for SP. I say disappointing because I was on HLE for that one and it cost me. That has been the only series win for SP, and HLE has yet to record one, and this may be their best chance for it.
These teams are equally bad, and the stats bear that out. SP has better first blood, first turret, and rift herald percentages. HLE has a better gold differential at fifteen with -1555 to -2171. That's a good indicator of how bad these two are. I like the move from HLE to bring back Haru, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the rookie YeongJae start tonight as they look for a spark.
The best player in the match will be on the HLE side in Viper, and I've been waiting on him to carry a set all split. Because HLE seems to have that one talent advantage and they have been running out the same lineup the last few matches, I'll give them a little edge here. This is as close to their super bowl as it gets knowing they might not have a better chance to win a match all split. Due to the sloppy nature of SP's play HLE is my top upside spot of the slate. We saw Viper put up 101 DKP in a loss in the first matchup, a feat he could easily match if he's going to carry the carcass of this lineup across the line tonight. No matter what Vegas or I think about this matchup, I think its entirely reasonable to hedge here as there are no clear cut advantages for either side. HLE has more upside, and I believe slightly lower ownership, but SP gets the DK's pricing discount.
Top HLE Plays
- Viper - ADC
- Lehends - SUP
- Haru - JNG(sub risk also might not even start)
- Mireu - MID (sub risk also might not even start)
Top SP Plays:
- Mickey - MID
- Ikssu - TOP
- Flawless - JNG
7:00 AM: Dragon X (-850) vs. Team Dynamics
We have seen way less of the stunning upsets in the LCK this split than in the LPL; even with the uptick in speed in the LCK, they are still a more controlled league than the LPL. DRX looks like one of the best teams in the league, if not the world, right now, and TD has fallen off a bit after their hot start to the summer. In their first meeting, we saw TD be surprisingly competitive with a surprising Heimerdinger pick into the bot lane. Between their ability to put deokdam onto mages and other surprising bot picks, and Rich being able to bully Doran in the top lane TD may be able to pick up a game off of DRX as we have seen DRX punt a series or two along the way, but other than using them as a deep GPP flyer to hedge just in case summer split strikes again.
I don't think I'll have any TD in my lineups. If I was chasing a 1% winner, that's where I'd start, but DRX will likely dominate and go into the LCK break with a nice win. DRX is better early, late, and at all objectives in between. TD has better first turret percentage, and a better rift herald take, they would have to snowball the early gold edge very hard to keep DRX from fighting it back. Chovy and Deft will have massive CS leads so that even if we see TD take down that first turret, I wouldn't be shocked to still see them behind in gold. I'll just take the DRX 2-0 and stop digging for that needle in a haystack that TD would need to finish off a series win vs. DRX.
Top DRX Plays
- Chovy - MID
- Deft - ADC
- Pyosik - JNG
- Keria - SUP
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: Vici Gaming vs. Top Esports (-750)
We've got some controversy on the VG side as no one can seemingly decipher the length of the suspension being served by Leyan for his actions during a streaming session held on his birthday a week ago. Aix will get the start, but I don't know if Leyan will be eligible to sub in after game one. I spent a fair amount of time on this on Twitter and Weibo this afternoon until I decided it didn't matter a lot as the only reason to play VG is it's the ultimate leverage spot on the slate versus an incredibly popular TES lineup. With the pricing on JDG, I imagine that TES will be the most popular team on the slate for a good reason.
Though looking at the statistics the first blood, first turret and rift herald rates are identical. TES builds their early leads through Knight and Jackey dominating in lane, and should hold the gold lead at fifteen. Zeka has been mixing it up with a more DoinB style champion pool and doing very well. We saw TES try a Karma mid that was not well received in their loss to V5, and I think they will stay clear of that giving Knight a chance to carry vs Zeka. I don't think we can just count VG out in this match, and they have been playing very well beating FPX and taking JDG to the limit. I think they are live here to take TES to a third game as well. TES should win, especially after the V5 loss they should be looking for vengeance, and I'd feel better about the VG side if they weren't on the rebound. Give me TES 2-1 for this one, but I may have a few VG shares for the leverage.
Top TES Plays:
- Knight - MID
- Jackeylove - ADC
- Karsa - JNG
- Yuyanjia - SUP
7:00 AM: Jingdong Gaming (-225) vs. FunPlus Phoenix
It's the final day of week seven in the LPL, and only three weeks remain. An LPL a week is a long time, but playoffs and their implications are beginning to loom large for some of our teams. Jingdong is sitting pretty in fourth right now, and should be prohibitive favorites in four of their remaining five games. FunPlus is currently sitting outside of playoffs, but they also should be favored in four of their final five contests. They close the season in the penultimate match versus SNG in a banger that could have massive implications for the playoffs. This match has more significance to FPX now that they dropped a winnable set mid-week to RW. FPX has history on their side, holding a 4-2 series advantage in the Doinb era, though both of JDG's wins have come in the playoffs skewing the game score a bit with only 9-8 in favor of FPX.
FPX, however, comes into the match on a worrying skid, and they have lost three in a row to RW, TES, and VG. JDG has regained its spring split form after a week three loss to RNG, and they have reeled off seven series wins in a row with victories over IG, VG, WE, LGD, and RW among them. This is going to sound moronic, I know, but I think reports of FPX demise are greatly exaggerated. JDG is a smart league by the numbers type of squad, a more talented version of VG.
FunPlus carries a slightly better early game with a higher first blood percentage, first turret, and rift herald rate. JDG and their win lane win game style has a better CSM and gold differential at fifteen minutes. JDG has a small drake advantage, a larger edge in baron Nashor takes, but the teams are evenly matched in vision score. Team WE are a very similar team to FPX (often referred to as great value FPX in this column), and they pushed JDG to three games after winning the first game and holding the second game in the balance for nearly 40 minutes. I'm trying to say the line is closer than you would think given the teams different trajectories, and I think the public perception is also off given the team's recent form. Vegas knows - John Q Public doesn't. I like FPX here to pull the upset 2-1, and they will win the first game and won't let JDG reverse sweep them as WE did. FPX isn't as cheap as I would like on DK tonight, but I think the ownership discount will make up the difference for me. I'm a gpp player, and as such, I gravitate to these types of plays more, and if you can't get down with the underdog play, I have no problem with playing JDG either as they are a cheaper favorite on a busy slate. I'm just expecting them to be over-owned relative to FPX as people are writing them off already.
Top FPX Plays:
- Doinb - MID
- Tian - JNG
- LWX - ADC
Top JDG Plays:
- Loken - ADC
- LvMao - SUP
- Zoom - TOP
- Kanavi - JNG
Summary
- TLDR - HLE - DRX - TES - FPX, given the headless approach to LOL that SP has displayed HLE has the most raw points upside of anyone I think, but you'll have to set the alarm to see who they play in three of five spots and roll the dice on them not swapping besides.
- I think TES and JDG as favs have more upside than does DRX, but DRX is more likely to sweep. If FPX gets the win I will likely have smaller stacks from them to unlock more TES. SP is in a similar boat HLE tend to roll over and play dead in losses and that limits their upside.
- Should be an exicting night for GPP players and a nail biter for cash.
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