Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

Jason Katz's Bold Predictions - 2019 Fantasy Football


In my group of friends, I am known for making outlandish claims that, most of the time, even I don't believe. It antagonizes the hell out of them because they know I'm just complaining about how LeSean McCoy is going to finish with zero touchdowns because I'm annoyed it's Week 3 and he hasn't scored one yet, even though I know my claim is absurd. It's kind of my gimmick.

It is only fitting that I convert my ridiculous claims into actual bold takes posted on the internet for the world to see. You will surely scoff at many of these now and start preparing for how you plan to lambaste me in December when none of them pan out. Except, I am planning the exact same thing for all of you when I bat 1.000.

If nothing else, bold predictions are fun. There's little downside because they're not supposed to be likely outcomes, but when you get one correct, the feeling is euphoric. I will preface my claims with this: I truly believe everything I say here. I will put my money where my mouth is, and, if you ask, I will gladly show you the proof in my drafts that I follow through on what I think.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Jason Katz's Bold Predictions for 2019

Before we get to my 2019 bold predictions, allow me to toot my own horn for my 2018 bold predictions. Given that these are "bold" predictions, getting even one or two correct is a win. How about 4/6? That's pretty good right?

2018 Bold Predictions

  1. Tyreek Hill will finish as a top-eight wide receiver...again.
  2. Jay Ajayi finishes as an RB4.
  3. Alex Collins is not the Ravens starting running back by the end of the season.
  4. James White will lead all Patriots RBs in fantasy points.
  5. Jordy Nelson scores more fantasy points than Amari Cooper.
  6. Marquise Goodwin finishes as a top-15 wide receiver.

 

Kyler Murray finishes as a top-six fantasy QB

I will admit my enthusiasm for Kyler Murray has waned a bit after the Cardinals' dismal preseason. However, if you look around the league, every team's offense sputtered in the games before the games. With starters playing fewer and fewer snaps each year, the preseason matters less and less. Murray is going to run a lot more during the season than he did in the preseason, which I believe was by design. He has the rushing upside of Lamar Jackson and is a much better passer.

The Cardinals will have some ugly drives where they go three and out in a span of about 18 seconds, but their play speed will allow them to have more drives and run more plays. They may not be super efficiency, but the overall offensive volume will be there. Far worse rushing quarterbacks have finished as QB1s. If Murray is as good as a first overall pick should be and this offense clicks, he has overall QB1 upside. If not, he should still be able to compile enough on the ground to reach mid QB1 status.

 

Ezekiel Elliott plays zero games in 2019 (and Tony Pollard is an RB1)

Melvin Gordon's ADP steadily dropped as it became more and more apparent that he isn't playing football to start 2019. Yet, for some reason, Ezekiel Elliott's ADP hasn't moved. The fantasy community is so sure Zeke is signing. I'm not. In fact, I'm quite confident he is not signing. Zeke is not going to take a deal that is anything less than what Todd Gurley is making. Jerry Jones is not going to offer him more than Gurley. We are at an impasse.

How does this get resolved? I only see one realistic solution: Jerry pays Zeke more than Gurley. If he doesn't do that, then Zeke doesn't play. If Zeke doesn't play, the Cowboys have shown that they are going to make Tony Pollard their three-down back. He played every snap with Dak Prescott this preseason. The Cowboys' starting running back is an RB1. Therefore, Pollard is an RB1.

 

Curtis Samuel scores more fantasy points than D.J. Moore

This was much bolder a month ago when Curtis Samuel's ADP was four rounds lower than D.J. Moore's ADP. Either way, Samuel appears to have taken a massive step forward as a route runner in his third season. Moore and Samuel are the locked in starters, but this assumption that second-year Moore is the alpha and third-year Samuel is the beta is really based on nothing. If Samuel is the better player, then he will command more targets.

 

Leonard Fournette plays 14+ games and finishes as a top-eight RB

There are a few things in fantasy football that don't make sense this season. One of them is the love for Dalvin Cook and the hate for Leonard Fournette. Aren't they the same? Well, they're not the same in the sense that Fournette is way more talented, but their situations are quite similar.

They are both locked into tremendous volume and guaranteed to be RB1s when they actually play football. Yet most fantasy gamers are dismissive of Fournette as injury-prone. He's only been in the league for two seasons. He played 13 games as a rookie and struggled with soft tissue injuries as a sophomore. Why can't he play 13 games this season?

I don't think there is another running back in the league with more job security than Fournette. No running back depth chart is weaker behind a locked-in starter. I can go on about Fournette's ability and his underrated receiving skills and the improved offense, but none of that really matters. If Fournette stays healthy, he will be an RB1.

 

Patrick Mahomes does it again

Obviously, that's a pretty vague prediction. What exactly is "again?" I am not predicting Patrick Mahomes to throw 50 touchdowns, but when fantasy analysts throw out the word "regression," they often times don't explain what that is. Yes, Mahomes will regress from a production standpoint in 2019. However, he should progress as a quarterback in his second year as a starter. So if Mahomes gets better as a player, that is going to offset some of the natural regression of trying to achieve 50 touchdown passes again.

This idea that Mahomes will regress to the "mean," as in somewhere around the league average or a little better, is the same nonsense that was spewed last year about Mahomes' top receiver, Tyreek Hill. The "mean" for Mahomes is not the "mean" for everyone else. The Chiefs are loaded offensively and will remain a top-five offense. Mahomes may not throw 50 touchdowns, but this idea that he can't even get to 40 is baseless. Mahomes is going to throw for over 40 touchdowns and push 5,000 yards again, justifying his third-round ADP.

 

The most valuable rookie RB isn't Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, or Miles Sanders.

I will qualify this prediction by stating that Tony Pollard does not count. If Zeke doesn't play, Pollard is the heavy favorite to lead all rookie running backs in fantasy points. Let's leave him out of this. Someone else is going to outscore Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, and Miles Sanders.

Jacobs is the clear starter for the Raiders, but people expecting him to be a three-down bell cow are going to be disappointed with how much the Raiders use Jalen Richard on passing downs. Jacobs is also a Raider, which limits his upside. Montgomery is getting all the buzz because he scored a nifty touchdown in a preseason game, but he's still sharing a backfield with Tarik Cohen and Mike Davis on a team I expect to regress from last season. Sanders is going to open the season firmly behind Jordan Howard and while Sanders has the ability and opportunity to take over the Eagles' backfield, Doug Pederson has always implemented a three-man committee. I don't expect that to change regardless of how well Sanders performs.

There are a bunch of late-round dart throw rookie running backs that could emerge. Damien Harris is one Sony Michel knee flareup away from heavy usage. Darwin Thompson should open the season with a 30-40% opportunity share in the league's best offense and only has a 27-year-old UDFA with fewer than 300 career touches to beat out for more work. Darrell Henderson is on the NFC's best offense and is one Todd Gurley knee flareup away from having a prominent role. And there will likely be some other running backs completely off the fantasy radar that will emerge at some point because... football.

More Fantasy Football Analysis




More Recent Articles

 

Week 15-16 Playoff Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Still doing things a little differently this week--for those of you who are still alive. I want to take a look at the playoffs as a whole (and in this case we are considering Weeks 14-16) and determine which DSTs you can ride all the way through and which ones you should stream this week.... Read More


Week 15 Waiver Wire Pickups & Adds

You have to love fantasy football. You have to, otherwise you would have given up by now. In a week that most likely represented the first matchup of the fantasy playoffs or a must-win in some form for the vast majority of players, we were treated to the following: Alvin Kamara netting three fantasy points,... Read More


Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 15

It is almost inconceivable that we are progressing into the second week of fantasy postseason matchups. Congratulations to those of you whose teams are still competing in the playoffs. Your meticulous planning during the draft process and the regular season has been rewarded with an opportunity to win your leagues' championships. This critical week provides the opportunity to... Read More


Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 15

Week 15 is upon us, which means that even the holdovers who play in leagues with four team playoffs and no byes are now in fantasy playoff mode. This is it: the home stretch. Are there any wide receivers left on the waiver wire who can help you in the playoffs? Let's look at some... Read More


Week 15 Tight End Waiver Wire Picks and Streamers

If your fantasy football season is over, either because you did not make your league’s playoffs or because you have had enough of failing in DFS contests, then this column is not for you. Congratulations if you HAVE qualified for your fantasy league’s playoffs! To reach the postseason you must have received some decent play... Read More


Quarterback Waiver Wire Pickups and Streamers - Week 15

The first week of the fantasy playoffs in almost in the books, and if you're fortunate enough to have advanced then it's already time to start thinking about Week 15 lineups, especially for those who stream quarterbacks. Luckily, there are plenty of viable options available as eliminated owners have stopped making moves, and if you... Read More


Waiver Wire Express - Week 15 Lightning Round

An injury-laden Week 14 decided many matchups, with several big names going down in a Red Wedding-esque affair. Not only was Josh Jacobs was a late inactive, but Jared Cook, Devante Parker, Albert Wilson all left with concussions, Mike Evans pulled up with a hamstring injury, Calvin Ridley and Ryan Griffin hurt their ankles, Derrius... Read More


Fantasy Football News and Injuries - Running Updates

Below is a quick-hit list of running notes on relevant injuries and player news, including pre-game reports and live in-game updates. Stay tuned for updates all throughout the week and on Sunday morning game day:   Week 14 Josh Jacobs (shoulder) has officially been ruled out. Jared Cook has been ruled out of the game after... Read More


Monday Night Fantasy Football Starts/Sits - Week 14

Finally, we had a good fantasy matchup last week. And now, as punishment, we get this. The Eagles against the Giants is a good rivalry game. But for fantasy? Not so much. Even key players Saquon Barkley and Carson Wentz have been severely disappointing in 2019. The game is not going to be something to... Read More


Week 14 Chat - Live Fantasy Football Game Day Q&A

It's Sunday Morning Week 14... Do You Know Who to Start? Each Sunday morning of the NFL season, RotoBaller's experts will be moderating the industry's leading live chat room and answering a bunch of your fantasy football questions, from around 10:30 AM to 1:00 PM ET. Come join in on the fun, and get your... Read More


Updated Week 14 PPR Rankings (Top 300)

Welcome to Week 14 RotoBallers. Below are our updated consensus Week 14 PPR rankings for fantasy football, including some running notes on relevant injuries, player news and rankings updates: Josh Jacobs (shoulder) has officially been ruled out. Will Fuller (hamstring) is expected to miss Week 14. Adam Thielen (hamstring) has officially been ruled out. Le'Veon Bell... Read More


Fantasy Football Mailbag - Q&A for Week 14

This article's content may vary week-to-week, but generally, it will be answering questions fielded from either the @RotoBallerNFL twitter account or my personal one (@RotoSurgeon). This week, the focus is on start/sit questions, and there were plenty. Every week, many of us struggle with which quarterback to start, or who to flex, and I am... Read More


Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Matchups Analysis for Week 14

Welcome to our Week 14 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering every single contest from the Sunday slate in one convenient location, helping you make the best decisions for your fantasy lineups. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries and other... Read More


Wide Receiver Matchups To Target In Week 14

In Week 13, Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill were the high-end options that had great matchups. Adams had a huge two-touchdown game while Hill only came up with 55 scoreless yards, falling victim to game flow as the Chiefs led from start to finish, scoring a defensive touchdown in the process. Several of the wide receivers... Read More


Week 14 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More