RADIO
Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2022 Butterfield Bermuda Championship. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.
Hello PGA DFS family and welcome back to Horse For The Course! Wow...what an event the CJ Cup turned out to be. It's almost as if getting all the best players together is a good idea. Rory McIlroy outlasted Jon Rahm and a pack of other chasers to emerge victorious at Congaree. With the win, McIlroy returns to the No. 1 spot in the OWGR.
The CJ Cup featured 15 of the world's top-20 ranked players. This week's Bermuda Championship...isn't that. However, there will still be money on the line for PGA DFS grinders, so let's give this little event our full attention and break down some course history.
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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2022-23 Butterfield Bermuda Championship
As we all know, the world of professional golf is undergoing some seismic changes. Last week's amazing CJ Cup event was one aspect of those changes, while this week's Bermuda Championship is the other side of the coin. The PGA Tour wants to get the best players in the world together more often - as we saw last week at Congaree - but moving forward, the Swing Season will also be a proving ground for those that are fighting to stay on the Tour.
The Bermuda Championship is a glimpse of that. It was an alternate-field event in its inaugural edition back in 2019 but is now a stand-alone tournament on the fall schedule. It offers a chance for up-and-comers and veteran journeymen to keep the dream alive by securing their PGA Tour cards for a couple of years with a win, not to mention a guaranteed trip to the 2023 Masters. Fresh off the DP World Tour, Lucas Herbert captured last year's Bermuda title in just his third start as a full-time PGA Tour member. To give you an idea of this event's standing, Herbert couldn't even be bothered to turn up and defend this week.
This week's Port Royal is - at 6,800ish yards - the second-shortest course we see in regular rotation on the PGA Tour schedule. In addition to an ultra-short layout that gives every player in the field a legitimate chance to compete, we must also consider the often blustery wind conditions. This is yet another variable that makes this a difficult tournament to predict. For the purposes of this article, we do have a few years' worth of course history to work with - though I have to let you know that's a tiny sample size. Basically, if you are dipping your toe in the PGA DFS waters this week, be prepared to embrace some volatility!
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Port Royal Golf Course
Par 71 - 6,828 Yards, Greens: Bermuda, Architect: Robert Trent Jones
At just over 6,800 yards, Port Royal is one of the shortest golf courses that we regularly see on the PGA Tour. As a result, we've seen a pair of "short knockers" in Brendon Todd & Brian Gay take down the first two editions of the Bermuda Championship. It's not that long hitters can't play well here (Wyndham Clark lost in a playoff to Gay a couple of years ago), it's the fact that this golf course brings the entire field into play that makes it tough for DFS purposes. Port Royal offers unique sightlines and demands accuracy off the tee. There's no rough to speak of, but players need to be in the proper position off the tee in order to attack greens on their approach shots. As if this course wasn't already unique enough due to its length, we must also consider the fact that it is located on the Atlantic coastline of Bermuda and wind is often an obstacle as a result.
It all adds up to a focus on players that are accurate off the tee, sharp iron players, and great Bermuda grass putters. I'll also lean towards those that have some course experience under their belts, have historically performed well on short layouts, and have a history of being good wind players.
Check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett for an in-depth breakdown of this week's golf course!
Recent Bermuda Championship Winners
- Lucas Herbert (-15)
- Brian Gay (-15)
- Brendon Todd (-24)
The Horse
Denny McCarthy
- Event Scoring Average: 68.58
- Notable Course History: T39 (2022 Season), T4 ('21), T15 ('20)
- DraftKings Price: $10,400 FanDuel Price: TBD
The putting extraordinaire is what represents an "elite" player in this week's Butterfield Bermuda Championship. McCarthy comes into the fall of what was perhaps the best PGA Tour season of his career. The 29-year-old made the cut in 22 of 29 starts with an impressive five top-10 finishes. He finished the 2021-22 season at 37th in the FedEx Cup points standings. It's no surprise that McCarthy's putter did most of the heavy lifting - he finished the season ranked second on Tour in SG: Putting - but we did see small stretches of sharp ball-striking, including top-seven finishes in the Memorial, U.S. Open, and John Deere Classic.
In addition to the terrific form, McCarthy is a rare find from a course history perspective this week, as he's one of the few players in the field that has three Bermuda Championship starts under his belt. D-Mac has thrived on this short Port Royal layout, amassing a 68.58 scoring average with a top-five and a top-15 across his three starts in this event. Depending on the weather, this tournament can sometimes devolve into a putting contest and Denny is a player that I want on my rosters in that environment.
The Ponies
Mark Hubbard
- Event Scoring Average: 69.25
- Notable Course History: T22 (2022 Season), T41 ('20)
- DraftKings Price: $10,000 FanDuel Price: TBD
After splitting time between the PGA and Korn Ferry Tours last season, "Homeless Hubs" looks determined to stay in the big leagues for the foreseeable future. The journeyman has performed beautifully across his four Swing Season starts, posting a T5 at the Sanderson Farms Championship, as well as top-30 results at the Fortinet and Shriners.
Hubbard's recent career resurgence can be traced directly to his impeccable T2G play. Over his last 24 rounds, the vet grades out first in this field in SG: T2G, while ranking second in SG: Approach. There's some familiarity with Port Royal as well. Hubbard posted a respectable T22 in last year's edition of the Bermuda Championship and has made the cut in both of his previous starts in this event.
Russell Knox
- Event Scoring Average: 68.33
- Notable Course History: T12 (2022 Season), T16 ('21), T11 ('20)
- DraftKings Price: $9,200 FanDuel Price: TBD
Ahhh yes...my PGA DFS nemesis. Few players have burned me more than Russell Knox over the last several years, but if I remove my personal biases, there are lots of pros to rostering Knox this week. Most notably, his Bermuda track record is impeccable. His 68.33 event scoring average is the second-best in the field among those with two or more Bermuda starts and he's never outside of the top 16 at Port Royal.
If we toss aside an abysmal outing at the ZOZO Championship two weeks ago, the Scottish veteran has looked solid during the Swing Season. Knox kicked off the fall with back-to-back top-25 finishes at the Fortinet and Sanderson Farms Championships and the 37-year-old comes into this week grading out ninth in the field in SG: Approach for his last 24 rounds.
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Kramer Hickock
- Event Scoring Average: 68.50
- Notable Course History: T30 (2022 Season), T8 ('21), T15 ('20)
- DraftKings Price: $7,000 FanDuel Price: TBD
The former Texas Longhorn comes into this year's Bermuda Championship with little form to speak of, but that's not held Kramer Hickock back in the past. Hickock has gone T30-T8-T15 over his last three trips to Port Royal and two of those three finishes came on the heels of a missed cut in his previous start.
If you are willing to overlook his recent game log, you'll find some reasons for his success in this event. The Austin native grew up playing in windy Texas conditions and thus has no trouble adapting to the often-breezy environment in Bermuda. Standing just 75th in the field in Driving Distance, this short 6,800-yard layout is manageable for the light-hitting Hickock and his accuracy (11th Fairways Gained L24) off the tee serves him well at Port Royal.
Brian Gay
- Event Scoring Average: 67.42
- Notable Course History: T12 (2022 Season), Win ('21), T3 ('20)
- DraftKings Price: $6,700 FanDuel Price: TBD
The 90's relic has managed to stay very relevant in this event, as Gay has been - for lack of a better word - dominant at the Bermuda Championship. Never finishing worse than tied for 12th in three trips to Port Royal, the now-50-year-old has a win and a T3 on his Bermuda CV.
It likely goes without saying that we're grading Gay on a rather unique curve, as modern golf courses on the PGA Tour schedule have ruled him obsolete for the most part. Outside of his T12 here last year, the highlighted one made just three cuts last season. That said, he's consistently defied expectations in this little event and he's worth a stab in GPPs at this price point.
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