Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - 2024 Mexico Open

Between Monday's Course Preview piece (found right here on RotoBaller), and last night's podcast (currently posted on our X page), we've given y'all every possible trend, key stat, and player take needed to make the most educated betting decisions possible this week at Vidanta Vallarta. This Wednesday article will now serve as a final bow to wrap up a jam-packed week of PGA content at Flag Hunting. No fluff, no rants or superfluous soliloquies, just the entirety of our 2024 Mexico Open outright betting card.

The three names on this betting card are aimed at returning ~6.5 times our investment (including potential live adds). Because of the inflated odds associated with the outright market, it becomes even more imperative to remain disciplined when setting your unit allocations from this article's picks. Golf outright betting is a notoriously fickle beast, and multiple month-long droughts are very much within the range of outcomes. However, at these prices, one single hit can pay off many weeks of poor decision-making.

In the two-year history at Flag Hunting, we've been fortunate enough to cash a total of 22 outright winners (a 21.8% hit rate) for a profit of over $16,000 (betting roughly $350 per week) and an aggregate ROI of 44.3%. The volatility of the sport means I can't promise you a winner in any given tournament, but if you're willing to bet methodically and stick with the process, the outright golf betting market has the potential to be one of the most profitable (and enjoyable) betting sweats in the business. But I suppose I'd better keep my word about the necessary rants, so with no further ado, here's every bet I've made for the 2024 Mexico Open!

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Mexico Open Betting Card

Nicolai Hojgaard (16-1)

Man, I love watching Nicolai Hojgaard hit driver. His runner-up at Torrey Pines gives him a win and two 2nds in his last five worldwide starts:

2nd
1st
T25
T7
2nd

pic.twitter.com/qaYcGBWmXe

— Sean Martin (@PGATOURSMartin) January 30, 2024

Admittedly, Nicolai Hojgaard was not a name I intended on betting this week -- instead opting for budget-friendlier options Stephan Jaeger and Taylor Pendrith as the cover boys of my Monday preview article. However, all of this was under the assumption that Hojgaard (as the clear #2 to Tony Finau in this field), would be priced as #2's typically are in the outright market (i.e. somewhere in the vicinity of 12-1).

Instead, I woke up Monday morning to see Nicolai listed at as high as 18-1 at some shops, and even at his current market price of 16-1, I'm willing to eat the chalk at a venue that has been very friendly to the marquee names that have made the trip down south. For those of y'all who aren't waking up every Sunday at 5 a.m. Eastern to sweat the happenings on the DP World Tour, you may not quite be fully aware of the hype surrounding the 22-year-old Dane. But for the uninitiated, let me be the first to announce that Nicolai Hojgaard has every bit of the prospect pedigree of the other young Scandanavians currently taking the golfing world by storm.

Since turning pro in 2019 (one month after his 18th birthday), Hojgaard has amassed three wins on the DP World Tour, including a win at last year's star-studded World Tour Finals that secured him full membership for the 2024 PGA Tour season. He's continued that torrid run of form into the New Year, recording 7th and 2nd place finishes at the Dubai Desert Classic and Farmers Insurance Opens, before logging back-to-back top 40s in Signature Series events at Pebble Beach and Riviera.

Vidanta Vallarta, however, presents Nicolai's most obvious breakout spot to date from a course fit/strength of field perspective, as the generous fairways around this property will allow him to unleash one of the most prolific drivers in world golf. Hojgaard also recorded one of the best approach weeks of his 2023 season right here last year (+4.7), and has already enjoyed extensive success on paspalum surfaces: winning the 2022 Ras al Khaimah Championship in the U.A.E. and coming 2nd in last year's Puntacana Championship at Corales.

Given my opinion on Nicolai's overall ability, and the lack of proven commodities anywhere on this betting board, I'm happy to take the plunge at 16-1 at a course that should set up as well for Hojgaard as anywhere all season. He's already beaten Finau head-to-head in two of the three starts they've made together this season. If he can keep that record in his favor this week, Nicolai stands a very good chance at capturing his first win across the pond.

 

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

Davis Thompson (50-1)

Here comes Davis Thompson 💪

He’s back within one of the lead after the birdie on No. 4 @TheAmexGolf. pic.twitter.com/4XzfyHL9ZE

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 22, 2023

Speaking of names that came with a bit of shock value on the opening line, Davis Thompson was another instance of a player I had circled as a potential write-up in my Monday article. I valued him, Jaeger, Pendrith, and Detry quite similarly, but according to the 50-1's posted on Monday morning, it was clear that oddsmakers put him a couple of tiers below the veterans above.

My numbers disagree with this assessment, as Thompson comes into this week on the back of his best approach week in two and a half years on the PGA Tour (+4.2 at WM Open), and riding some very consistent form since the end of last summer (five top 25's and only one missed cut over his last ten starts). Davis also rates out as one of the best Par 5 scorers in this field, he's sixth in Birdie or Better Percentage, 10th in Proximity from 200+ yards, and ended last year as the 16th best Total Driver of the ball on the entire PGA Tour.

Thompson hasn't yet tasted true contention since going down to the wire with Jon Rahm at last year's American Express, but a 15th-place finish last fall at El Cardonal (one of my key course corollaries), and the underlying ball-striking splits suggest he's on the precipice of making a run at his first professional title. The 50s are unfortunately gone as I write this early on Wednesday morning, but I still fully endorse the 42 currently accessible on BookMaker.

 

Jhonattan Vegas (60-1)

¡Rugidos en el 16 para Vegas! 🗣️

Todavía jugando la tercera ronda, @JhonattanVegas se lleva el birdie para llegar a (-9) en el @WMPhoenixOpen. pic.twitter.com/b8tjdgx5Sg

— PGATOUResp (@pgatouresp) February 11, 2024

After an elbow injury robbed him of nine months of his 2023 campaign, Jhonattan Vegas finally showed signs of his old self two weeks ago in Scottsdale. The big-hitting Venezuelan gained 3.4 shots off of the tee and 3.8 on approach in a 22nd-place finish in the desert, and now arrives at a venue that should be even more well-suited to his power game.

In his last full season on the PGA Tour, Vegas ranked 11th in Driving Distance (315.7-yard average) and gained strokes on approach in all but six of his 22 recorded starts. His iron numbers have historically taken a jump whenever we arrive at a venue that places a heavy emphasis on shots from 175 yards and beyond (Innisbrook, Torrey Pines, Sawgrass, etc.), and although he hasn't yet made a start here in Vidanta, Jhonny's past successes on other Paspalum Courses in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Mayakoba suggest he's more than comfortable navigating this surface.

If the game truly is back in form for the 39-year-old from Maturín, Vidanta Vallarta presents a dream spot to keep the ball rolling in 2024. Although he's priced around a few sexier, albeit lesser-known commodities, I'm more than willing to back the pedigree of a three-time Tour winner and still one of the more captivating ball strikers in the game.

 

In-Tournament Strategy

With these three names on the card, we're still left with ~35% of our weekly budget to use on in-tournament additions. This section will outline a few names to monitor in the live markets, as well as a few potential angles to use when assessing player viability over the course of the week.

• Although there are a bevy of birdie chances available to players starting on either side of the course this week, Vidanta Vallarta's back nine features the three hardest holes on the property. 10, 16, and 17 have played to a combined scoring average of (+1.01) by themselves, so be careful unloading the clip on fast Thursday/Friday starters off of the front half.
• This point is further enhanced by the difficulties of Vidanta's 8th and 9th holes. The 496-yard par 4 and 174-yard par 3 that end Vidanta's front half play to a scoring average of 4.25 and 3.04 respectively -- ranking as the 4th and 6th hardest holes on property. In general, I expect players will be overvalued in the live market as they walk off of the drivable 7th.
• If there is a potential angle to mine value in the middle of a player's round, it will be for those starting on the inward half (10-18), as they complete their 8th hole. Holes 10-17 at Vidanta have actually played nearly half a shot over par over the first two iterations of this event. Given the fact that at least a few players off of the front are likely to get off to a hot start with two par 5s and a drivable par four within their first seven holes, we could easily see some drift on players who have spent their first couple hours on course treading water.
• As such, here is a list of players I had pre-tournament interest in who will be going off of the back-nine in Round 1. Provided their early ball-striking numbers look solid, and they haven't given up too much ground in Vidanta's toughest stretch, they should each make solid live additions to your betting card:
  • Ryan Fox (8:41 EST)
  • Cameron Champ (9:14)
  • Thorbjorn Olesen (9:36)
  • Jake Knapp (9:52)
  • Stephan Jaeger (1:15)
  • Carson Young (1:26)
  • Emiliano Grillo (1:48)
  • Erik Van Rooyan (1:48)
  • Thomas Detry (2:10)

 

Best of luck guys, and happy hunting!

 

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