RADIO
Between Sunday's Course Preview piece (found right here on RotoBaller), and last night's podcast (currently posted on our Twitter page), we've given y'all every possible trend, key stat, and player take needed to make the most educated betting decisions possible this week at Pebble Beach. This Wednesday article will now serve as a final bow to wrap up a jam-packed week of PGA content at Flag Hunting. No fluff, no rants or superfluous soliloquies, just the entirety of our 2024 Farmers Insurance Open outright betting card.
The three names on this betting card are aimed at returning ~6.5 times our investment (including potential live-adds). Because of the inflated odds associated with the outright market, it becomes even more imperative to remain disciplined when setting your unit allocations from this article's picks. Golf outright betting is a notoriously fickle beast, and multiple month-long droughts are very much within the range of outcomes. However, at these prices, one single hit can pay off many weeks of poor decision-making.
In the two-year history at Flag Hunting, we've been fortunate enough to cash a total of 21 outright winners (a 21.4% hit rate), for a profit of nearly $15,000 (betting roughly $350 per week), and an aggregate ROI of 41.8%. The volatility of the sport means I can't promise you a winner in any given tournament, but if you're willing to bet methodically and stick with the process, the outright golf betting market has the potential to be one of the most profitable (and enjoyable), betting sweats in the business. But I suppose I'd better keep my word about the necessary rants, so with no further ado, here's every bet I've made for the 2024 Pebble Beach Pro-Am!
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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Card
Max Homa (20-1)
Max Homa makes the high-pressure putt on 18 to win the match vs. Matt Fitzpatrick 1UP. 💪 #GoUSA
🇪🇺 14 🇺🇸 9
📺: @NBC and @peacock | #RyderCup pic.twitter.com/8DzTWJrCLe
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) October 1, 2023
For the second straight week, Max Homa will be leading the line on our outright betting card. A T13 finish at Torrey Pines wasn't exactly what we were looking for at an outright price of 14-1, but given the fact that Max never seemed to get out of second gear, the fact that he even sniffed contention is a testament to his resilience.
Homa will get another chance in his home state this week, and although his Pebble Beach track record doesn't read quite as well as that of a Torrey Pines/Riviera, Max has been far from fruitless in Monterey. In a three-start stretch from 2019-2021, Homa recorded finishes of 7th, 10th, and 14th -- gaining a cumulative total of 4.0 strokes on approach and 6.4 strokes putting in the seven rounds played at Pebble.
He comes into this year's iteration having recorded ten consecutive Top 15 finishes around the world and on a run of ten straight poa annua starts with a positive SG: Putting rating. Max has gained a whopping 0.98 strokes per round on his favored poa since 2019 -- beating the second-best putter in that time (Peter Malnati) by over nine strokes.
Homa also rates out immaculately in my key wedge ranges: ranking inside the top 20 on Tour in both Proximity from <125 yards, 125-150, and in Birdie or Better Percentage from <150 yards. In many ways, Homa should be better suited for Pebble's strategic, wedge-intensive layout than he was for the 7,800-yard routing of Torrey Pines. I continue to have immense faith in Max's outright prospects on the West Coast, and as long as he's priced as the 6th or 7th golfer in the field, I'll be very happy to bank on his proven prowess on California soil.
Jason Day (65-1)
Jason Day hits a terrific wedge to kick-in range on 18 and makes birdie to reach 23-under.
Day needs to dodge an Austin Eckroat eagle to secure his first win in five years. pic.twitter.com/WSi2Fp7MTD
— Underdog Golf (@Underdog__Golf) May 14, 2023
Our second pre-tournament selection this week drops us all the way down to 65-1. It's not the strategy I tend to employ in a star-studded field such as this, but Pebble Beach's lack of length, general deemphasis total driving/long-iron play, and heavy emphasis strokes saved inside of 150 yards means it naturally lends itself to a wider range of players. Over the last nine tournaments held at Pebble Beach, five of the winners have come from beyond 50-1 on the closing line -- including 2019 U.S. Open Champion Gary Woodland, who was available at prices in the 125-1 range in direct leadup to the year's third Major.
I didn't think those trends would apply to Jason Day this week, however, as the former World No.1 has shown an unprecedented affinity for these links throughout his career -- dating back to a 6th-place finish he recorded as a 20-year-old rookie in 2008. Since that sterling debut nearly 16 years ago, J-Day has gone on to record seven additional top 10s, zero missed cuts, and only two finishes worse than 22nd in 13 subsequent starts around the Monterey Peninsula.
With this track record in mind, 65-1 becomes one of the more enticing value propositions on the board -- especially given the fact that Day has seen his most immediate recent success on similarly short, wedge-intensive courses. His win at the Byron Nelson last year came in easier scoring conditions with an abundance of wedge opportunities, he also tallied a team win alongside Lydia Ko at last fall's Grant Thorton Invitational -- another glorified pitch-and-putt, and he began the 2024 campaign with a top 10 result at Kapalua, a coastal, often windswept course that deemphasizes driving, gives you a wedge on every other hole, and requires you to run pure on the greens to keep up with the breakneck scoring pace.
I wasn't willing to buy the course history at 25-1 last week at Torrey Pines, but at nearly 3x the number this week, it's much easier for me to see the case at a venue like Pebble Beach. Sad as it may be, the days of Jason routinely contending at big-boy, Major Championship-esque golf courses may be a thing of the past, but he's still more than capable of keeping pace with the best in the world from 150 yards and in -- particulalry around a comfortable layout like he'll see this week.
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Adam Scott (90-1)
Adam Scott hit the flag twice today, including once on a par 4. He’s opened with rounds of 66 and 65 to be 1 back at the Australian PGA 🇦🇺pic.twitter.com/yCohz4ughJ
— Flushing It (@flushingitgolf) November 24, 2023
We're staying Down Under for our third outright selection with another veteran Aussie who spent 2023 re-establishing himself as a consistent threat in the global game. Scott recorded eight Top 10 finishes over the last eight months of the '23 campaign and opened his 2024 account with a 7th-place finish on the DP World Tour's Dubai Desert Classic. In a field that included some of the most talented players Europe has to offer (McIlroy, Fleetwood, Hatton, Hojgaard, etc.), Scott ranked fourth in the field in SG: Putting and gained over 7.5 strokes between his driver and iron play.
This recent run of form makes Scott one of the hottest commodities in the golfing world as he arrives in a part of the world where he's found a ton of historic success. Since 2019, Scott has recorded a win, a runner-up, and four additional top 10s in the Golden State -- including a 7th-place finish at the 2019 U.S. Open here at Pebble Beach. In that time, he also rates out as the 5th best poa annua putter on a per-round basis, and recent spike performances at short courses in Bermuda, Sedgefield, and TPC River Highlands would suggest he's perfectly suited for the positional, wedge-intensive test on tap at this week's AT&T Pro-Am.
In fact, over the last 12 months, Scott's proven to be one of the deadliest wedge players on the PGA Tour -- ranking 4th in proximity from inside 100 yards, and third in birdie or better percentage from inside 125. Unlike many of the preeminent ball-strikers that dominate these proximity stats, Scott's putter has repeatedly proven itself as a genuine weapon in the veteran's toolkit (19th on Tour last season in SG: Putting), and with the confidence he carries into this week, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him pick off another early-season victory as he did in L.A. four years ago.
Sahith Theegala (90-1)
Sahith Theegala with an excellent flop shot from the rough to set up birdie on 7 at Torrey North. 👏
📺: Golf Channel & @peacock | @FarmersInsOpen pic.twitter.com/vwdqGjQ4KF
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) January 24, 2024
Sahith nearly got us across the line at 80-1 to start the 2024 season, and as we venture back into his home state, books are giving us another opportunity to catch one of the game's ascendant talents at a premium outright number. Like Day, I didn't see Sahith as a player with quite the ball-striking horsepower to keep up at a nearly 7,800-yard venue in Torrey Pines, but when you get him on a course that deemphasizes total driving, gives you an abundance of wedge chances, and increases your reliance on short game and putting, the handicap this week sounds awfully familiar to the last two venues in which Theegala has showcased his full potential.
His win at the Fortinet Championship last September came just three hours north of the Monterey Peninsula in Silverado -- a 7,100-yard course with ample wedge opportunities, similar poa annua greens, and one of the lowest missed fairway penalties on the PGA Tour. He followed that up with a 2nd place finish at Kapalua's Plantation Course earlier this month -- a much longer track than either Pebble or Silverado, but one that still places the same sort of emphasis on wedge play/putting while affording Sahith the ample room he needs as one of the more error-prone drivers of the ball on the PGA Tour.
With its 6,900-yard layout, forgiving fairways, and poa annua greens, Pebble Beach profiles as the perfect fit for Sahith's long-awaited marquee victory. Theegala has proven time and time again over his first two seasons that he's not afraid of the spotlight shone by some of the biggest stages the sport has to offer. I'm more than happy to take another shot at prices bordering on the triple digits.
Nick Taylor (175-1)
O CANADA! 🇨🇦💥
Nick Taylor drills the birdie putt on 18 for the @RBCCanadianOpen clubhouse lead!
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/mEzCM1LEH9
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) June 11, 2023
Considering he produced one of the greatest moments of the 2023 golfing season, books have been oddly slow to adjust to the Canadian's breakout campaign. Taylor might not be the most bankable golfer every week, but he's proven on many occasions that he can stare down some of the sport's brightest stars and biggest occasions.
His win at last year's Canadian Open was career-defining on multiple levels, but it should not be forgotten that Taylor conquered a field full of golf's elites, including Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrell Hatton, Cameron Young, and a certain up-and-coming prospect out of Texas Tech called Ludvig Aberg. Four months prior, Taylor put together one of the most impressive final rounds of the entire season at the WM Phoenix Open -- outplaying the likes of Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, and Xander Schauffele in a Sunday 65 that left him just two shots short of Champion Scottie Scheffler.
Now we return to the site of his second-greatest career highlight: a 2020 win at the AT&T Pro-Am where he took down Phil Mickelson and Jason Day in the final group for his first Tour victory in over five years. In fact, Pebble Beach has been one of the safer havens on the schedule for the notoriously streaky Canadian. Since 2016, Taylor has missed just one cut around these links in eight starts; recording five top-30 finishes in addition to his 2020 triumph.
With this Pebble Beach pedigree, proven affinity for the big stage, and a top 10 already to his name in 2024, it's hard to see how Taylor has managed to fall all the way down to 175-1 in an 80-man field. I'll gladly scoop up the opportunity though, especially considering the recent propensity the PGA Tour has shown for cashing outright winners at inflated numbers.
Best of luck guys, and Happy Hunting!
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