August 31, 2017

Fantasy football stars who should be faded and are overvalued in dynasty leagues for 2017. Steve Halupka examines five players who could be in decline soon.

There is not a season that goes by in the NFL where a new superstar isn't made. Whether it’s a rookie first-round draft pick or a player that finally got their big break due to injury, the NFL is an ever-changing landscape. When those new stars are made other players, either veterans who are on their last legs or injured players, fall by the wayside and have little value for fantasy owners in the coming seasons. Fantasy owners need to be well aware of when a player’s time in the sun might be coming to an end, and especially in dynasty leagues either sell that player or prepare for their retirement.

Other players might not be on the edge of retirement, but look to lose fantasy value in 2018. Depending on the situation they find themselves in next season, a running back can go from seeing 200 carries a season to being out of the league in no time flat or a wide receiver can his 20% target share evaporate to 10-12% depending on which team they land on.

Here are five players that will be redraft studs in 2017 that could by dynasty duds by 2018.

Stars Whose Dynasty Values Are Falling

Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT)

There have been many rumors over the past few seasons that “Big Ben” is looking to hang up his cleats sooner rather than later. That obviously impacts his dynasty value knowing that an owner’s possible starting quarterback may or may not retire next season. That question should drop Ben in dynasty rankings below fellow 2004 draftees, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers, even if Ben’s short term outlook remains strong. Ben should be considered one of the top quarterbacks when it comes to redraft leagues due to his plethora of weapons (finally all healthy and on the field) at his disposal. Both Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown could as the number one non-quarterback scorers at their positions, and Martavis Bryant has upside for days. He could potentially be another top-24 wide receiver in redraft leagues this season. However, all of the weapons the Steelers have amassed could mean nothing in 2018 if Roethlisberger decides to retire.

Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI)

One of the best ever to play the wide receiver position, Larry Fitzgerald is another player near the end of his rope in the NFL. That’s not to say he can’t provide one more very, very good season in 2017, but 2018 leaves a lot on uncertainty not only with Fitzgerald, but the Cardinals as a whole. Carson Palmer is also nearing the conclusion of his career and if a new quarterback emerges in Arizona, Fitzgerald’s value will no doubt take a major nosedive. Fantasy owners have seen Fitzgerald’s yards per reception drop over the past two seasons from 12.4 in 2014 to 11.1 in 2015 and all the way down to 9.6 in 2016. Expecting a further drop in yards per reception average should not be expected, but Fitzgerald is not going to be anywhere as explosive as earlier in his career. Expect to see another near 100-catch season for Fitzgerald in 2017 with Palmer under center, but 2018 is murky to say the least.

Frank Gore (RB, IND)

Unfortunately for Frank Gore, he will probably not be able to win a Super Bowl during his stay in Indianapolis like he originally envisioned, but that’s not to say all was lost for him during his time there. Gore was a solid RB2 throughout the last two seasons totaling over 1,000 yards from scrimmage each year and scoring at least seven touchdowns. If Andrew Luck is able to play the majority of games in 2017, Gore should again be at least worthy of an every-week flex for fantasy rosters. However, that should all come to an end after the 2017 season when Gore becomes a free agent and should probably ride off into the sunset. There just aren’t many, if any, 35 year old running backs (Gore will turn 35 prior to the 2018 season) any more in the NFL and even though Gore has defied Father Time, it very well may catch up to him as he searches for a new contract heading into the 2018 season.

LeGarrette Blount (RB, PHI)

From 18 touchdowns in 2016 to potentially out of the NFL in 2018; that is the potential career path that LeGarrette Blount is on. Blount only registered a 44% success rate on runs last season according to Football Outsider even though he scored those 18 touchdowns. He has also been a near non-factor in the passing game with a career high in receptions of 15 and that was all the way back in 2011. NFL running backs in general need to be able to catch the ball as the shorter and safer passing game is more plentiful than it once was. He could be a RB2 in 2017 with the potential for double digit touchdowns (not 18, but maybe 10 or so) in an offense that is clearly on the rise. His current year ADP of 66^th overall is fine for a borderline RB2. Blount is currently on a one-year, $900,000 deal with little clarity following that deal. He could be out of the league next season as easily as he could be picked up by another team.

Jarvis Landry (WR, MIA)

Landry is the youngest player on this list at just 24 years old when the season starts. The soon to be free agent has seemingly lost any interest from the Dolphins over the past few months and may well end up in a situation that is much worse for his target share. He has amassed at least 20% of the targets in Miami the last two seasons with a staggering 28.2% in 2015. Landry is considered one of the best slot receivers in the game today, but typically that type of player does not: 1) become paid like a top outside receiver in the NFL and 2) typically see as many snaps as outside receivers in most offenses. There are a few landing spots that could be a potential disaster for Landry, including Denver, Buffalo and Tennessee who each ran less than 55% of their plays in 1-1 (three WR) personnel. Landry should be fine for 2017 as a low-end WR2 in PPR leagues and low-end WR3 in standard leagues, but his 2018 future certainly leaves things in doubt.

If you would like to continue the discussion contact me on Twitter @TheRealHalupka

More 2017 Dynasty League Strategy

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