5 MLB Prospects To Know for 2023 - Fantasy Baseball Rookie Targets

March 14, 2023

Mark looks at five MLB prospects for 2023 fantasy baseball drafts. These MLB rookie hitters can be draft sleepers and elite fantasy baseball prospects.

To be good at fantasy sports, one has to have knowledge of the player pool. In fantasy baseball, it is even more paramount as the player pool is so deep.

Every year, we see new faces coming from the Minor Leagues up to the Big Leagues, and as fantasy players, we all hope we can roster the next Julio Rodriguez to help win our teams' championships.

With that being said, here are five fantasy baseball prospects and MLB rookies that every fantasy baseball player should know for 2023.

Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

Corbin Carroll has been a pretty hyped prospect as he was a first-round draft pick in just 2019 and played in the Florida Complex League, Double-A, Triple-AAA, and Major League Baseball all in just 2022. Last season in the minor leagues, he hit 24 home runs and stole 31 bases in just 442 plate appearances and 93 games. People are hoping for that 20/30 upside this coming season.

In the Major Leagues, he hit .260 with a .330 OBP, four home runs, two steals, 13 runs, and 14 RBI in 32 games. Over the course of 150 games, this would project out to 19 home runs, nine steals, 61 runs, and 66 RBI, but extrapolating a small sample size can be dangerous, not to mention the learning curve that happens in Major League Baseball.

In NFBC Online Championships, his ADP is 72.4 or the late fifth/early sixth round in those 12-team leagues.

ATC has him projected for 17 home runs and 18 stolen bases while batting .251. Most projection systems have him in roughly the same spot. There are only 20 batters projected for 20 or more steals and only 16 of them are projected for 10 or more home runs. Carroll projects similarly to Starling Marte but has the youth upside and the youth premium in drafts as Marte is currently going about a half-round later than Carroll in drafts right now.

Gunnar Henderson, 3B, Baltimore Orioles

Gunnar Henderson is another prospect who finds himself in the top 100 of NFBC drafts with an ADP of 99.13. Like Carroll, he was also a 2019 draft pick and made his debut in 2022. In 503 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A, Henderson hit 19 home runs, scored 101 runs, and had 22 stolen bases while batting .312 in Double-A and .288 in Triple-A.

In 34 games played at the Major League Level, Henderson hit four home runs, had 12 runs, 18 RBI, and one stolen base while batting .259.

ATC projects Henderson to bat .253 with 19 home runs and 11 stolen bases with 70 runs scored and 69 RBI. ATC has 10 third basemen projected for 10 or more steals and five of them for 10 or more home runs.

If his performance is similar to his projections, he is going at way too high of a price tag given Ryan McMahon is projected for similar numbers and goes at pick 220.33 on average as a CI player. In general, one needs to have a sound strategy for attacking the third base position but that's a topic to be discussed in its own article.

Jordan Walker, 3B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals

Jordan Walker is another player getting a lot of buzz during this offseason. In Double-A last year, Walker hit .306 with 19 home runs, 100 runs scored, 68 RBI, and 22 steals in 119 games played. He also had a productive Arizona Fall League as well to continue the hype train.

On the qualitative side, people talk about his maturity. They rave that he is 20 years old but carries himself like he is 30.

The storyline to watch with Walker is making the big league club to begin with. The Cardinals seem set with Tyler O'Neill in LF and Dylan Carlson in CF, but he could win the RF job in Spring Training. I think that is somewhat unlikely at this point but it is a storyline to watch, especially with the World Baseball Classic going on, guys like Walker could get extra looks.

With no openings on the Cardinals at 3B or 1B, he would really have to impress to make the Opening Day roster. Even if he is good enough to make the roster, it is better for his development to be getting everyday at-bats and reps in the field as opposed to sitting on a bench in the Majors.

ATC projects Walker for 10 home runs and seven steals in 82 games played on the season. In general, he is known for having power, and if he continues to develop it, he could be one of the big sluggers in the game for years to come.

Miguel Vargas, 1B/3B/2B, Los Angeles Dodgers

All last season, I was hoping for Miguel Vargas to get promoted to the Dodgers as Justin Turner struggled at times, especially in the first half of the season, for the Dodgers. In Triple-A last year, Vargas hit .304 with 17 home runs, 100 runs scored, 82 RBI, and 16 stolen bases. In eight games with the Dodgers, he had one home run and one steal.

ATC projects Vargas to hit .266 with 11 home runs, 47 runs, 49 RBI, and six steals in 97 games played. If that number increased in 130 games, it would be 16 home runs, 66 runs, 69 RBI, and eight stolen bases.

Recently, it was noted by Jim Bowden that Max Muncy could be the everyday third basemen and Vargas could be the starting second basemen.

Andrew Friedman #Dodgers told us that if he had to guess now he sees Muncy at 3B Lux at SS Vargas at 2B Taylor in OF...Rojas utility...but team has a lot of positional flexibility and open to competition @MLBNetworkRadio @FantasyAlarm

— Jim Bowden⚾️🏈 (@JimBowdenGM) January 29, 2023

Truthfully, the 15/10 projection would be more valuable from a middle infield position than a corner infield position as we are often looking for more power from those spots on our fantasy teams. Nevertheless, Vargas has an inside track to be an everyday player and he has a solid skillset that should keep him in the Dodgers lineup if given that opportunity.

Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Rangers

Josh Jung was a guy that was supposed to make the leap to major leaguer in 2022 but an injury derailed those plans. Jung hit .273 with six home runs, 15 runs, and 24 RBI in 106 plate appearances in Triple-A. He had 102 plate appearances for the Texas Rangers and had five home runs, nine runs, and 14 RBI.

ATC projects him to hit .238 with 19 home runs, 52 runs, 61 RBI, and five steals in 121 games played. As a prospect, Jung was known for having big power in his bat, so there is a high power ceiling on him -- it's just a matter of when that power is realized. If he can continue to develop his skills, batting fourth or fifth behind Marcus Semien and Corey Seager could result in some serious RBI potential.

With an ADP of 229.8, and with third base being a weak position in the fantasy game, it could be worth taking a shot on Jung's upside if necessary here. He likely won't help you in average but could provide some power upside later in your drafts.

Other Prospects To Know

It is difficult to end at just five names so here are a few more to consider:

Kodai Senga, SP, New York Mets: He is 30 years old and comes from Japan. He will be in the rotation in 2023. Projects as a strikeout-per-inning player.

Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Colorado Rockies: Is likely the starting SS and has 30 stolen base upside.

Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox: A year ago, he had all of the hype coming out of the Arizona Fall League in 2021. Injuries slowed him down last year.

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