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A weekly look back at the NASCAR Cup Series predictions and projections from the RotoBaller DFS NASCAR team.
Every week following the most recent NASCAR Cup Series race, we will review the previous event for top takeaways, featuring the projections and predictions of the RotoBaller staff. Anchored by the 2023 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Racing Writer of the Year and well-regarded NASCAR DFS wizard Jordan McAbee, the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass includes everything you need to climb the tournament ladders, prevail in cash games, and cash out in wagers every week.
I will look back at Jordan’s pre-race forecasts and also loop in the analysis of our other top NASCAR analysts in a post-race breakdown of what was learned and can be utilized successfully going forward on DraftKings and FanDuel. Recent trends will be identified and we will highlight where McAbee and the NASCAR team succeeded in their predictive endeavors.
For access to the full suite of content from Jordan and the crew and our deluxe garage of tools that can help you win big in both DFS and NASCAR betting, strap in with the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass. Included in the setup are our lineup optimizer, research station, cheat sheets, VIP chats, and much more. Enter promo code KING at checkout for an additional discount. Today, we will look at the post-race DFS inspection for the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas.
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The Algorithm Shines Again
Jordan McAbee’s proven winning algorithm for predicted finishes is one of the prime features of RotoBaller’s NASCAR coverage for DFS players. A blend of essential statistics are included in the algorithm formula, including recent results and overall trends, specific track markers, similar track performances, projected strength of the cars, practice indicators, starting positions, and other important factors.
The algorithm produces a "Power Index" number for each driver to anticipate which cars will have the top speeds during a race. All drivers are ranked by their Power Index numbers to generate the predicted finishing order.
A week after the algorithm correctly pinpointed eight drivers to finish in the top 10, including two exact finishes and three within three spots of actual finishes at Dover, the formula came through with sparkling results again. Consider these on-target calls for Kansas Speedway.
- Kyle Larson – Projected to finish second, won the AdventHealth 400.
- Denny Hamlin – Predicted third, finished fifth.
- Chase Elliott – Predicted fifth, finished third.
- Martin Truex Jr. – Predicted sixth, finished fourth.
- Christopher Bell – Predicted ninth, finished sixth.
- Kyle Busch – Predicted seventh, finished eighth.
- Ryan Blaney – Predicted 11th, finished 12th,
Overall, six of the drivers who finished in the top eight were forecasted to do so by the algorithm.
Kyle Larson Scores a Legendary Victory
CLOSEST FINISH IN NASCAR HISTORY 🤯
Kyle Larson wins by 0.001 seconds 😱
(via @NASCAR) pic.twitter.com/36MiysIGeN
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) May 6, 2024
The NBA and NHL playoffs have naturally generated much excitement recently, and the Kentucky Derby stirred much buzz with its spectacular ending. But the NASCAR Cup Series made its own headlines for memorable drama at Kansas Speedway when Larson narrowly edged Chris Buescher for the closest win in Cup history. The victory margin of 0.001 seconds is now forever etched in NASCAR lore.
The algorithm came within a hair of fully predicting Larson’s actual finish, yet those who started or wagered on Larson based on McAbee’s pre-race picks feature article certainly enjoyed the rewards. He was strongly recommended as a DFS lineup anchor in the preview article.
“In cash games, you have to start with Kyle Larson this weekend. In the five races at Las Vegas and Kansas since the start of the 2023 season, this guy has led over 40% of the laps and has grabbed over 20% of the Fastest Laps. He had the best 15-Lap Average in practice this weekend and he qualified the highest (fourth) out of all of the "true" contenders. Heading into the AdventHealth 400, Larson is the guy to beat in this race. He's an excellent DFS play.”
The 2021 Cup champion had the highest Driver Rating (134.7) at Kansas and his Average Running Position was 2.8. He led the second-most laps (63) and was second in Fastest Laps (28).
Keselowski Delivers Quality Place Differential Production
Brad Keselowski’s 11th-place finish at Kansas does not look overly impressive on the surface. Yet when you consider he started 30th, he proved to be a clever DFS play at KS.
Before setting your lineups for any race, you should always thoroughly consult RotoBaller’s driver news feed. Those who did prior to the AdventHealth400 may have elected to start Keselowski based on Adam Erhardt’s pre-race outlook and were satisfied with the healthy Place Differential return.
“Prior to finishing 30th at Dover, Keselowski had finished second in back-to-back races, a testament to how competitive this team has been all season. Heading into this weekend's race at Kansas, there is no reason to think that this competitive edge will be lost, as the RFK driver-owner has been good on this track throughout his Cup career. In 28 Cup starts, he has two wins, which ties him for third-most among active full-time drivers in the Series, and an Average Finish of 11.3, which ranks him second.”
“Over his last 16 races on low tire wear intermediates, which Kansas Speedway classifies as, the 40-year-old has three appearances in the DraftKings optimal lineup and is averaging 38.11 DraftKings points, the eighth best in the Series. These results, combined with a starting position that provides plenty of Place Differential upside, make Keselowski a core play this weekend in DFS.”
Social Media Spotlight
First Look: Betting Picks for the Goodyear 400 at Darlington.
Jordan McAbee's NASCAR Betting Picks: Goodyear 400 at Darlington (Premium Content) https://t.co/twn5uNlOc4 #FantasyNASCAR pic.twitter.com/ZEu6vadC4B
— RotoBaller NASCAR (@NASCARDFS) May 7, 2024
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McAbee’s Betting recap for Kansas. Be sure to consult his weekly betting features on RotoBaller.
Betting results from Kansas.
+9.55 units
Hit live bets much harder than I normally do, but ESPN BET was being very generous with their lines. Gotta take advantage when they do that.
Only post-qualifying bet I really liked was Elliott top 10, glad that hit.#NASCAR @RotoBaller pic.twitter.com/IWA5lc7vN9
— Jordan McAbee (@FanRacingOnline) May 6, 2024
Forecast of the Week
“Chase Elliott, who currently sits third in the NASCAR playoff standings, will start ninth in Sunday's AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway. With four top-five finishes in the last five races this season, Elliott enters the race as one of the hottest drivers in the Cup Series. Despite his recent hot streak, and even though he is NASCAR's most popular driver six years running, the sportsbooks aren't all in on the former Cup champion.”
“Elliott has just the seventh-best odds to win Sunday's race, at +900. Considering he has a win (2018) and six top-five finishes in 16 starts at this track, the sportsbooks seem to be sleeping on the second-generation driver. Beyond presenting value from the sports betting side, the Hendrick Motorsports star also looks like a viable option in DFS, too.”
“Since the launch of the Next Gen Car in 2022, the 28-year-old is averaging 38.80 DraftKings points in races at this track, which is the fifth most of anyone in the Series. Given that his $9,800 salary is just the seventh-highest on the slate, Elliott looks to be as undervalued in fantasy as he is in betting.” – Erhardt’s comprehensive pre-race scouting report for Elliott, who registered another strong finish.
Around the Track
-In his post-race update on Kyle Busch at KS, Sean Wrona indicated that the Richard Childress Racing star is starting to build momentum – “After a string of mediocre runs (particularly on short tracks), Kyle Busch has returned to form in the past two weeks. Busch passed eventual winner Kyle Larson for the lead and led 14 laps before Larson retook the lead immediately before the caution for Joey Logano's spin. Busch ran in the top 10 for nearly the entire race until he spun out with six laps remaining.”
“After taking four tires on the caution for his spinout, Busch made a miraculous charge from 21st to 8th on the last two laps of green. Coupled with the previous race at Dover, Busch has now had his two highest Driver Ratings of the season in back-to-back weeks, which likely ended most speculation about him missing the playoffs this year.”
-In his Truck Series preview for the Heart of America 200, Justin Carter recommended Corey Heim and Christian Eckes as his two top plays.- “Heim led 40 laps when the Truck Series was last at Kansas, ultimately finishing the race in fourth place. He was second in the other 2023 Kansas race.”
“Heim's led double-digit laps in three of his four starts at the site and should be viewed as a major threat to win this race. Either is a great pick to anchor your lineup. – Heim won the race and Eckes finished third.
