RADIO
Week 1 is just about in the books, and we'll get the final matchup of the week tonight. In this article, we're back as always with our Monday Night Football matchups analysis article, this time for the Bills vs. Jets. It's been a fun and crazy kickoff week of NFL and fantasy football action filled with big performances, new players emerging, and many injuries around the league. Hopefully, you're on the verge of winning your matchups (or already have).
Now, we get one more game on Monday night to finish it off. Below you will find our matchups analysis for the Monday Night Football game between the Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets. Hopefully, it will be an exciting game that adds to a week filled with plenty of booms, busts, and injuries.
Read our fantasy football breakdowns for these games -- the recommended starts, sits, and matchups we love heading into the Week 1 matchups. Good luck RotoBallers!
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Spread: Bills -2.5
Implied Total: Bills (24) vs. Jets (21.5)
Pace: Bills (7th) vs. Jets (3rd)
Bills Off. DVOA: 36.5% Pass (2nd), 0.6% Rush (11th)
Jets Off. DVOA: -0.6% Pass (24th), -10.4% Rush (25th)
Bills Def. DVOA: -4.9% Pass (8th), -19.7% Rush (3rd)
Jets Def. DVOA: -8.2% Pass (4th), -12.5% Rush (10th)
Matchups We Love
With two tough defenses on tap here, I don't love any matchups for fantasy football lineups. Players will surely score points, but none of the matchups are "plus" matchups. They were both top 10 against the run and pass by DVOA last season while allowing the fourth-fewest (Bills) and second-fewest (Jets) points in the NFL.
Matchups We Hate
Aaron Rodgers (QB, NYJ)
Rodgers lands in the Big Apple, where he'll begin his quest for a title. Unfortunately, this game has slugfest written all over it, featuring two elite defenses that put a damper on fantasy production. Rodgers struggled immensely in 2022 without Davante Adams, averaging fewer fantasy points per game than players like Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo (9 GP), Carson Wentz (8 GP), Deshaun Watson (6 GP), and Sam Darnold (6 GP). It was a rough year.
That doesn't mean Rodgers and the Jets can't win this game or even perform admirably. However, for fantasy purposes, he's not someone you want to start this week.
Tyler Conklin (TE, NYJ)
In the same vein, Conklin, who has the potential to emerge as a weekly streamer, is off the radar as well. He could be as low as sixth in the pecking order, plus he has Jeremy Ruckert and C.J. Uzomah to compete with at the tight end position.
Jets Running Backs
We spent much of the offseason waiting to see how the recovery would go for Breece Hall. It hasn't been all roses, but he's active for Week 1. Unfortunately, the team is in win-now mode largely because of Rodgers. Therefore, New York also signed Dalvin Cook to a hefty deal to ensure they're covered.
Cook projects to see more work early in the year while Hall works his way back from injury. The bad news is that Buffalo was actually harder to run on than pass against, ranking third in run DVOA and finishing tied for first in rushing yards per attempt allowed with the Jets and Broncos. It really limits the excitement for either player. Cook is a flex option who'll rely on volume, and Hall is best passed on in favor of other players.
UPDATE: Breece Hall is officially listed as questionable for the game on Monday and is expected to play. Dalvin Cook is expected to see the majority of the touches this week, as the Jets ease Hall back into action after last year's injury. Cook can be viewed as an RB2 while Hall is a wait-and-see low end FLEX/RB3.
Bills Tight Ends
Dawson Knox is an average tight end. He graded No. 23 at the position in 2022, according to PFF. He managed to haul in 15 touchdowns over the past two seasons as their full-time starter but lacked the explosiveness this offense is missing.
In lieu of this, Buffalo drafted Dalton Kincaid 25th overall this past draft. It's unclear what the distribution of snaps will be or whether they'll utilize both at the same time by lining Kincaid up as a receiver. This makes it wise to avoid both in Week 1 against a tough defense.
Other Matchups
Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ)
The lone Jet that we want in our lineup is, of course, Wilson. He's a prime candidate to join the elite wideouts in the NFL following an impressive rookie campaign. His 1,103 receiving yards were the 10th-most by a rookie.
He also earned 147 targets. Where he struggled was finding the end zone (making only four trips), much of which fell on the shoulders of Zach Wilson and Mike White. Rodgers should be the upgrade he needs to be a top-12 wide receiver. However, he's more in the top 15 range this week.
Determining who will emerge behind him is worth monitoring to gain information for future weeks. Any one of Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman Jr., or Randall Cobb could be the No. 2 receiver.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Already in that elite tier is Diggs, who despite some rumblings during camp, seems primed for another fantastic season. He'll take on Sauce Gardner, another sophomore who crushed expectations in 2022.
Their series is even with Diggs catching five passes for 98 yards in Week 8, but being limited to three receptions for 37 yards in Week 14. It's far from ideal for Diggs, but he's too talented to bench. Gabe Davis is king of the spike weeks, but facing New York isn't the time to bet on one of those performances.
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Tossing him the pigskin is the second of the big three quarterbacks, Allen. The season really seemed to break down during the back half, likely as a result of his elbow injury. Those struggles bled into the playoffs where they barely escaped Miami and their third-string QB before getting outmatched by the Bengals.
The Bills ought to consider themselves in a championship window as well because Diggs is aging and there isn't much behind him. The Jets had Allen's number in 2022, holding him to 352 passing yards and one passing touchdown while forcing two interceptions. It's ugly, but moving off of Allen is nearly impossible.
James Cook (RB, BUF)
It's a little easier to rush the ball against New York than to throw it, which could mean more work for Cook. Following the departure of Devin Singletary, they brought in Damien Harris and Latavius Murray to compete for the backup spot. It's hard to tell who will emerge with that role, which may include goal-line carries.
We know Cook is a talented pass-catcher. What we're unsure of is whether he'll receive a portion of that goal-line work and how frequently Allen will target him. For now, he's a flex player with more upside in full PPR.
Injuries
Breece Hall (knee)
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