National League Outfield Draft Sleepers

March 29, 2021

Joe Gallina analyzes National League outfielders (OF) that are fantasy baseball sleepers and late draft targets for 2021.

The outfield position is deep in fantasy baseball. However, if you play in an NL-only league, or draft a team in a league where you need to start five outfielders the position can thin out rather quickly in the later rounds of deep league drafts.

Traditionally, some of baseball’s best all-time sluggers have been outfielders. However, while none of the following five NL outfield sleepers are likely to hit 30 home runs this season, four of them have the potential to hit at least 20. What’s even better is that three of those players also have a good chance at providing double-digit steal production this season.

Depending on the league format that you play in some of the players mentioned in this article might not get drafted at all. If that’s the case put them on your watch list. However, the one thing they all have in common is that they have the potential to provide value late in drafts.

Tommy Pham, San Diego Padres

ADP 131

2020 stats: 31 G, .211/.312/.312, 3 HR, 21.6 K%

A broken hamate bone limited Tommy Pham to just 31 games in 2020 and while it was a season that he’d soon like to forget, his current ADP and projected production for the 2021 season makes him an NL outfielder who can be a draft day bargain. Pham has had only three seasons in his big-league career in which he’s had more than 444 ABs, but in each of those seasons, he’s hit at least 20 home runs and averaged over 20 stolen bases. Pham batted just .211 last season, but according to Statcast, his xBA was .050 points higher at .261. His quality of contact improved last season as he set career bests in exit velocity (92.8) and hard-hit rate (50).

According to Steamer projections, Pham and fellow Padres outfielder Trent Grisham are expected to have very similar seasons. Pham is expected to bat .267 with 20 home runs and 15 stolen bases. Grisham is projected to bat .252 with 24 home runs and 15 stolen bases. According to Fantasy Pros, Pham has an ADP of 131 and Grisham has an ADP of 72 on average, which means that you should be able to select Pham five rounds later than Grisham in a 12-team roto draft. Now that is true value!

Jesse Winker, Cincinnati Reds

ADP 222

2020 stats: 54 G, .255/.388/.544, 12 HR, 25.1 K%

Fantasy baseball managers who have been waiting for Jesse Winker’s above-average hit tool (.298/.398/.449 career minor league slash line) to translate into consistent fantasy production may be finally rewarded this season. Fueled by a torrid 18-game stretch in August in which he hit 10 HR and batted .404/.493/1.018, Winker set career bests in Barrel %, Exit Velocity, wOBA, hard hit and walk rate last season. Per Statcast, 58.3% of his 2020 HR were considered No Doubters. (HR in any major league ballpark). None of Winker’s 16 HR in 2019 were No Doubters. He was one of the few Reds hitters who actually progressed as a hitter last season.

For his career, he owns a .299 BA vs. RHP and just a .195 BA against LHP. However, last season he had a better BA against LHP (.265) than RHP (.252). Winker’s contact rate suffered as his power stats increased, but he was still able to maintain his above-average OBP (.388) skills. He’s projected to bat lead-off for the Reds this season and while that’ll likely limit his RBI production, with an xSLG and xwWOBA in the 89^th and 93^rd percentile respectively, look for Winker to hit 20 or more home runs. With Reds’ batters expected to bounce back from 2020’s season-long slump, Winker will have plenty of run-scoring opportunities this season as well.

Raimel Tapia, Colorado Rockies

ADP 229

2020 stats: 51 G, .321/.369/.402, 1 HR, 18.4 K%

When fantasy baseball managers think about Rockies’ hitters, power almost always comes to mind. Unfortunately, power is not yet part of Raimel Tapia’s underlying skillset. However, he does possess one of fantasy baseball’s hottest commodities: speed. Tapia is expected to bat leadoff for the Rockies this season, a spot in the batting order that he’s excelled at. Tapia batted lead-off in 35 games last season and posted a .326/.370/.411 slash line and stole six bases.

Even with the trade of Nolan Arenado to the Cardinals, the Rockies still have a very potent lineup that will score a lot of runs. Tapia benefits as the Rockies’ remaining big boppers like Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon and C.J. Cron drive him home. Look for Tapia to deliver steady three-category (BA, Runs Scored, and SB) production this season.

Nick Senzel, Cincinnati Reds

ADP 245

2020 stats: 23 G, .186/.247/.357, 2 HR, 19.2 K%

Nick Senzel’s big-league baseball career has been derailed by injuries, and true to form he missed time with groin and finger injuries last season. However, as a post-hype sleeper, he still possesses an above-average blend of power and speed that makes him a valuable late-round selection capable of providing 20-home run, 20-stolen base production. The Reds batted .212 as a team last season, and with a .186/.247/.357 slash line Senzel’s feeble bat fit right in their underachieving lineup, but despite all the negatives surrounding his 2020 season, there is cause for a bit of optimism as we approach Opening Day.

Last season’s xBA of .234 is nothing to brag about, but it was .048 points higher than his actual BA. As this article is being written Senzel has produced a .353/.450./.588 spring training slash line and has only struck out seven times in 40 plate appearances thus far. Senzel was a more disciplined hitter last season compared to 2019. His strikeout rate improved from 24.4 in 2019 to 19.2 and according to Statcast, his chase rate dropped from 27.9 to 23.3. That led to a significant increase in his zone contact rate (80.8 to 87.4)

He also showed significant improvements in his launch angle and fly ball rates, and although his hard-hit rate dipped a bit last season it was still above the league average. If he could avoid visiting the IL, playing a full season’s worth of home games in the Great American Ball Park, which had the highest rate of HRs for all hitters in 2020, should help his power production. With a sprint speed in the 97^th percentile, he could also be a good resource for fantasy managers looking for late-round stolen bases.

Corey Dickerson, Miami Marlins

ADP 356

2020 stats: 52 G, .258/.311/.402, 7 HR, 16.7 K%

Based on his 356 Fantasy Pros ADP, Corey Dickerson is free in 12-team leagues, and a solid option as your fifth outfielder in 15 team roto leagues. In the first 32 games of the 2020 season, Dickerson slumped badly, batting .225/.290/.408 but based on his strong finish, it seems likely that if 2020 was a 162-game season, his overall numbers might have been closer to his career averages. In his final 20 games, Dickerson posted a .311/.346/.392 slash line. Although his slugging percentage was well below his .497 career average and he posted a career-high 52.2 career ground ball rate, he still managed to slug seven home runs in 52 games. At that rate, he would have likely hit 20 or more home runs across a full season.

Dickerson, who is a lifetime .284 hitter, finished the season with a .258 BA, his worst since 2016. He put some of the blame for his subpar performance on an unusual season in which he lost his grandfather and was dealt another difficult blow when his dad was diagnosed with kidney cancer. He’s expected to bat leadoff this season and while that might limit his RBI production, if he gets over 500 ABs this season like he’s expected to, he should hit 20 or more home runs, score plenty of runs and provide fantasy managers with an above-average BA.

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