Fantasy Basketball: Buy Low, Sell High - All Star Break Edition

March 10, 2021

Thunder Dan Palyo outlines several players you may want to buy low or sell high on ahead of the second half of the NBA season and fantasy playoffs.

The NBA All-Star break was a bit subdued this year and teams are ready to get back into action tonight in order to get this COVID-altered regular season wrapped up by mid-May and keep the NBA post-season from dragging too far into the summer. The all-star break is a great time to reflect on your team and do some evaluation as to how your players have performed relative to their expectations and where your team could collectively stand to improve.

It's never too early to start planning ahead, especially if your team is positioned well for a playoff spot or you find yourself fighting hard to get into the playoffs. A savvy manager is always looking for ways to improve his team or get a leg up on the competition, whether it's mining the waiver wire or making trades. Today I want to feature some players who I would be looking to acquire or trade based on their first-half performances and second-half expectations.

I went ahead and compiled this chart of games played by each team during the standard playoff weeks so we could get a quick glance at which teams have the most favorable schedules down the stretch. Most teams have 11-12 games total and 3-4 games a week, but there are a few outliers as the Raptors have a two-game week in the first round and the Clippers have the dreaded 3-3-3 for a league-worst nine total games (more on that in a bit). You don't need to go out and trade all your Raptors, Clippers, Knicks, and T-Wolves but just every game counts in the playoffs so I would definitely try to maximize the number of games you're going to get out of the players that matter the most at the same time.

Buy Low Players

Christian Wood - PF/C, Houston Rockets

I won't lie to you, this pick is definitely affected by how much I own Wood in my leagues and how excited I am to get him back after he's missed a month with an injury. Wood was already returning second-round value and now will be the only big man Houston has to lean on as Boogie Cousins has moved on. He's been incredibly productive already in Houston so far this year and is doing exactly what we expected with his first full-time starting gig. He has a well-rounded offensive game and the ability to grab 10+ rebounds nightly while also being a solid contributor in defensive stats.

With Houston clearly rebuilding now around Oladipo and Wood, look for him to be a centerpiece in their offense and run a lot of pick and roll with Wall and Oladipo both. The buy-low window might close rather quickly here as he's set to return from injury within the first week of the second half, so float some offers out there now to see if his owner has become impatient and is willing to give him up for a second-tier player.

Lonzo Ball - PG/SG - New Orleans Pelicans

I also own Lonzo in some leagues and I am really glad I took him in the 8th-9th rounds as he's returned 6th round value through the first half. He's had his ups and downs, but he's shooting a career-high 43% from the field and has increased his three-point production to a really solid three long balls per game. His assists have dipped a little, but he's made up for that with his increase in scoring and solid defensive production with 1.3 steals and a really sneaky .5 blocks.

His brother is the one getting all the attention as LaMelo is making his case for rookie of the year, but Lonzo is an underrated fantasy asset. If you can pry him away from his owner now, I think he's got a great chance of sustaining these numbers of even increasing his output down the stretch.

Kemba Walker - PG, Boston Celtics

Kemba is not usually a player I would be targeting in fantasy basketball, but I do think there's reason to believe he will be better in the second half and his value has never been lower than it is right now. He was actually flat-out cut in our RotoBaller Staff league which blew me away and I am sure that's happened in plenty of other leagues, too, as owners have to be frustrated with his poor shooting and the fact that he's missed a bunch of games already.

The reality is that Kemba hasn't shot this poorly since 2014 and his really slow start has weighed his overall stats down. He shot only 37% in January and played only 25 minutes per game as the Celtics eased him back into his minutes. Since then, he's shot closer to 40% and has seen his minutes increase to 32-33 minutes per game, which is likely about where he will settle. Yes, he's not the alpha-scorer on this team with Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum doing a lot of the heavy lifting each night, but Boston really needs his offense as they have few other offensive weapons. His numbers just about everywhere else have been around what he did last year, so there's no reason not to think he'll get back to 20-4-5 on excellent FT%. If you can sell someone on trading you Kemba just to rid themselves of his poor FG% (and your team can survive the hit of 40% shooting on 16 attempts per game), then go for it.

Sell High Players

Kawhi Leonard and Paul George - SG/SF, Los Angeles Clippers

Alright, you'll have to hear me out on this one. Don't go trading either of these guys for anything other than a huge return as Kawhi is returning top-6 value this season and PG-13 right around 18-20 depending on your league and settings. But that playoff schedule (3-3-3) can't be ignored and this team really can't be fully trusted to play their stars down the stretch, can they? I would be nervous if I owned either guy about getting a few two-game weeks from them in the playoffs if they rest a game here or there April and May.

It makes sense to at least see what you can get for them, especially if other owners aren't looking at playoff schedules. Perhaps target a team in your league that is without a true star player and sell them on how either of these guys are 9-cat players without any real weaknesses in their games. But, you'd be foolish for not exploring the market and seeing if you can land a stud of equal value that might be more dependable down the stretch.

Myles Turner - C, Indiana Pacers

Turner is returning second-round value this season on the strength of one category - blocks. He's blocking a whopping 3.4 shots per game and leading the NBA. His career-high is 2.7 blocks and while he certainly could manage to end up around three per game, he's already seen that number slowly decrease throughout the season (he was up over 5 blocks per game for the first few weeks). Turner is a nice asset to have on your team, he doesn't really hurt you anywhere other than his lack of assists, but he also puts up very boring, pedestrian numbers everywhere OTHER than blocks. If your team can afford to give up the blocks, why not see if you can get a more well-rounded player for Turner, someone who is going to contribute above-average stats in more than one category.

Nerlens Noel - C, New York Knicks

Mitchell Robinson is going to be back in a week or two, and Noel is going to turn back into a pumpkin. Yes, Coach Thibs likes the defense that Noel brings but Robinson is their center of the future and it's not likely that Noel keeps the starting gig once Robinson returns. Noel will certainly still be a useable fantasy asset in blocks, boards, and steals even if he keeps splitting those center minutes, but he's not going to have anywhere near the value he's had over the last few weeks.

I would be looking to move Noel or package him with another player, citing his recent play and strong relationship with Julius Randle and Coach Thibs. Use him as a "sweetener" in a 2 for 1 deal (I love making these trades) and then go pick up another useable player off the waiver wire.

Thanks for reading everyone and make sure you keep coming back to RotoBaller for all your fantasy basketball and NBA DFS content! Good luck in the second half of the season and bring home those league trophies!

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