4 Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers - Caleb Durbin, Parker Messick, James Wood, Nick Lodolo

September 22, 2025

Connelly's fantasy baseball risers and fallers for Week 26 of 2025. He assesses hitters and pitchers performing well and poorly to determine their future value.

Welcome, everyone, to the final edition of RotoBaller’s Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers article series for Week 26 of the 2025 season! Today, I'll look at Caleb Durbin, Parker Messick, James Wood, and Nick Lodolo.

Keeping up with the latest hitter and pitcher trends is a key component for a successful season, and RotoBaller is here to help fantasy managers! Each week, I will select a few players who have performed well recently and a few who have not, and I will analyze their performances to determine how their future outcomes may be affected.

This week, I will analyze players who are relevant for the final week of the season and whose 2026 values could rise or fall based on how they finish this season. Thank you to everyone for following along with this series; hopefully, these insights helped you! Let's get into one more Fantasy Risers and Fallers.

• Fantasy baseball draft kit
• Fantasy baseball rankings
• Team Sync platform and Draft Assistant
• Fantasy baseball mock draft simulator
• Fantasy baseball draft cheat sheets
• Fantasy baseball closer depth charts
• Fantasy baseball prospects

Fantasy Baseball Hitter Riser

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, September 21, 2025

Caleb Durbin, Milwaukee Brewers (2B/3B)

.264/.339/.401 Slash Line, 11 HRs, 52 RBI, 16 SBs

Durbin joined the Brewers at the beginning of the season as part of the trade for Devin Williams. He was considered a fantasy prospect when he was on the Yankees, and he has gotten a chance to prove himself with the Brewers. He has put up respectable numbers overall and has been even better in the second half, slashing .268/.327/.447.

Durbin profiled as having a bit of everything, and he has put those skills on display in the second half. He has 71st-percentile sprint speed, which has helped him swipe eight bases in 10 attempts. He has also posted a solid .268 batting average with an 11.0%strikeout rate. His average has been even better lately, hitting .310 in September.

The most interesting aspect of his game is his power production. His .447 slugging percentage in the second half is better than his season mark, but still could leave something to be desired on paper.

Caleb Durbin - Milwaukee Brewers (10) pic.twitter.com/mrCFXTODaz

— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) September 1, 2025

Durbin has not hit the ball hard this season, with average exit velocities and hard-hit rates in the third and fifth percentiles of baseball. However, he has managed to make the most of his skills, with a strong 33.2% squared-up rate and a 20.9% pull-air rate.

The Brewers have seemed to maximize offensive output from interesting players who may not necessarily stand out. Durbin fits this profile, providing speed, batting average, and sneaky power. He is a hot-hand play for the rest of this season and could be a sleeper option next season.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Riser

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, September 21, 2025

Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians

3-0, 2.08 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 21.8% Strikeout Rate, 34 2/3 IP

Messick got called up to the Guardians in August and has played a large role in keeping them in the hunt for a playoff spot. Four of his six starts have been quality starts, and he has compiled a 2.08 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 21.8% strikeout rate. He has emerged as a fantasy contributor; what could he bring in 2026?

Messick is not a highly-touted prospect, as the 24-year-old is the Guardians’ No. 11 prospect, per MLB Pipeline. However, he has shown plenty of fantasy promise in the minors throughout his career. He posted a strong 3.47 ERA and 29.1% strikeout rate in 98 2/3 innings pitched this season with Triple-A Columbus.

The strikeout skills have not fully translated so far. Messick does have a full five-pitch arsenal to rely on, with his changeup being his best swing-and-miss pitch at 17.1%. This was on display in his latest start against the Twins. Messick threw his changeup more than any other pitch and generated a career-high nine strikeouts.

Parker Messick struck out NINE over 5.1 innings in yesterday’s start 🔥 pic.twitter.com/tHhKGVIC0k

— Milb Central (@milb_central) September 20, 2025

His WHIP has been higher than fantasy managers would prefer, but this appears to be due to bad luck. He has done a great job limiting walks at a 3.5% clip. His .371 BABIP has been the problem, but he has done a great job limiting hard contact. I would expect his WHIP to better reflect his performance.

The Guardians have plenty of young, intriguing pitchers for rotation options next season. Fantasy managers will have to wait and see how things develop in the spring, but Messick has made an excellent first impression. At the very least, he has proven to be a reliable fantasy option for the rest of this season.

Fantasy Baseball Hitter Faller

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, September 21, 2025

James Wood, Washington Nationals (OF)

.253/.349/.458 Slash Line, 27 HRs, 89 RBI, 15 SBs

Wood's first half had all the makings of a top fantasy draft pick for 2026. His second half has painted a completely different picture, with a .211/.295/.335 slash line, three home runs, and three stolen bases in 244 plate appearances. Wood has made it difficult for fantasy managers to rely on him; will this cost him in 2026?

Wood has presented some clear reminders that he is still a young player. One aspect that stands out is his strikeout rate. Wood did present some strikeout liability in his minor-league career. His 28.9% strikeout rate in his rookie season wasn't great, but it was tolerable. He had a 27.6% strikeout rate in the first half of this season, but his second-half mark has been a poor 39.8%.

He managed to generate power results in the first half despite a less-than-ideal batted-ball approach. Wood has hit the ball hard all season, with a 94.1-MPH average exit velocity. However, he has not hit the ball in the air, with a 6.2-degree launch angle. He also has just an 11.2% pull-air rate. All in all, Wood hasn't given himself a chance to translate his hard contact into damaging contact.

Finally, Wood was doing a great job against left-handed pitching to start the season, batting .298 with a .556 slugging percentage and a 25.5% strikeout rate. His success has evaporated in the second half, leading to a .208 batting average and .299 slugging percentage with a 41.5% strikeout rate.

Wood provided huge fantasy value in the first half and almost nothing since. Fantasy managers looking for a final push may want to look elsewhere. In terms of next season, it will be interesting to see where Wood falls. He showed plenty of skills in the first half and has hit the ball very hard all along. However, he has shown considerable risks in the second half.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Faller

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, September 21, 2025

Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

8-8, 3.44 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 23.5% Strikeout Rate, 149 1/3 IP

Lodolo has put together a successful season on paper, going 8-8 with a 3.44 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 23.5% strikeout rate in 27 starts. However, he suffered blisters on his pitching hand in August and has not been the same. Lodolo has dealt with blisters before; what should fantasy managers expect from him going forward?

The splits for Lodolo before his blisters and after are stark. Lodolo compiled a 3.09 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 23.6% strikeout rate in his first 22 starts. His first start of August was cut short due to blisters, and his numbers in August and September have devolved to a 5.48 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 22.8% strikeout rate in five starts.

Lodolo has been pitching with the Reds since 2022, but it is difficult to assess him because he has yet to pitch a season without missing time on the injured list. He has dealt with blisters numerous times, as well as other prolonged injuries. He showed higher-end strikeout skills in his first two seasons, but that has dropped off in his last two. He has also shown variable walk rates and ERAs.

Lodolo’s next projected start is a great matchup against the Pirates. Despite this, fantasy managers may want to avoid a potential implosion this late in the fantasy season. He is worth the start for those in need, and his health will be a pivotal piece of his 2026 evaluation.

More Sabermetrics and Statcast Analysis