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Corbin's deep dive into starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, waiver wire adds, for Week 1 of 2026. Are these unlikely aces potential leagues winners?
Welcome to the first edition of our Unlikely Aces series in 2026. We're into the first full week of the 2026 fantasy baseball season. It's fun to stream starting pitchers and find success. However, sometimes streaming pitchers can destroy the ratios. We should have a process for any waiver wire move, start/sit decision, or player examination.
Some pitchers possess high-end skills but don't perform well. There are instances where the data and research indicate this pitcher shouldn't perform well, but the outcomes look good. After a quality outcome, fantasy managers need to decide whether it's sustainable. Throughout the season, we'll highlight starting pitchers who have been performing well and examine whether we should buy, sell, or hold.
Are these unlikely aces for real, or is it safe to leave them out on the waiver wire, with negative regression surely coming? Let's take a deeper look!
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Eric Lauer, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
28% Rostered
The Blue Jays' rotation had depth with Jose Berrios (elbow) and Shane Bieber (elbow) injured, plus Trey Yesavage (shoulder) being a surprise injury. Unfortunately, Cody Ponce landed on the injured list after suffering a sprained right ACL. The Blue Jays will need to rely upon Eric Lauer as a primary starter after 15 starts in 28 appearances in 2025.
Lauer had a whopping 40% K-BB% and 13.8% swinging-strike rate in his first outing of the 2026 season. Most fantasy managers would take Lauer's 17.8% K-BB% in 2025, especially if he could elicit an above-average swinging-strike rate. It's worth noting that Lauer faced the Athletics' hitters, who had the highest swinging-strike rate (17.8%), making them a favorable matchup for whiffs until their bats heat up.
It seems like it's the year of the cutter early in the 2026 season. Lauer's cutter lost over five inches of downward movement while losing three inches of glove-side movement. We saw Lauer use a similar cutter from a velocity and movement standpoint in 2023 with the Brewers. Interestingly, the cutter results weren't great against right-handed hitters (.457 wOBA, .442 xwOBA), which he threw 34% of the time in 2023.
The outcomes were better in 2025 via the cutter against righties (.289 wOBA, .295 xwOBA).
Lauer pounded the zone with the four-seamer (62%), similar to 2025 (59.3%). This is where the Athletics and their ability to whiff come into play. Lauer's four-seam elicited a 31.3% swinging-strike rate on pitches in the zone in his first outing compared to 12.3% (2025) and 18% (2023). Since Lauer's four-seamer doesn't grade out as an above-average pitch, he probably relies on command.
That's evidenced by a 120 Location+ in 2026 and 101 Location+ in 2025 via Lauer's four-seam.
The visual below shows how precise Lauer can locate his four-seam, especially in his first outing in 2026.
It's hard to ignore Lauer's first outing, but understand the context of him facing the Athletics. Since Lauer relies on his command, there's a chance he outperforms the projections and models. He might not have ace-like upside, but there's an above-average starting pitcher within Lauer's profile, especially if his pitch mix and stuff evolve. Fantasy managers should add and stream Lauer in medium- to deeper-format leagues.
Taj Bradley, SP, Minnesota Twins
6% Rostered
Nine strikeouts across 4 1/3 innings in Taj Bradley's first outing draw our attention, especially with a 17.4% swinging-strike rate supporting the strikeout rate in the small sample of one game. We mentioned that the theme of the year was the cutter. That's the case with Bradley, given that he threw a new cutter in his first 2026 outing.
Bradley's cutter was thrown over 2 mph slower while adding six inches of downward movement.
The cutter has a sweeper's movement profile without the glove-side movement, which might be expected from Bradley's high arm angle (54 degrees). Bradley threw the cutter often against right-handed hitters (31.4%) in 2025, which dipped to 17.9% in his first 2026 outing, though that's a noisy small sample. When Bradley located the cutter well, it was effective against right-handed hitters in 2025 (.239 wOBA, .275 xwOBA) compared to the one game in 2026 (.454 wOBA, .243 xwOBA).
The heatmaps below show Bradley's cutter location volatility in his first 2026 outing compared to 2025 against right-handed hitters. That's further evident by Bradley's cutter having a 60 Location+ in 2026 compared to a 92 Location+ in his career.
Bradley's cutter could unlock his arsenal, especially since the splitter and curveball have been relatively effective to either side of the plate. In Bradley's first 2026 start, his curveball added over one inch, and the splitter dropped 3 inches more compared to the downward movement in 2025. Theoretically, that should lead to additional whiffs and weak contact via the splitter and curveball.
There's no denying Bradley's stuff, but it's a matter of consistent command and location. Bradley will bring fantasy managers along a bumpy roller coaster ride, with plenty of highs and lows due to control/command issues.
Emerson Hancock, SP, Seattle Mariners
44% Rostered
The baseball world took notice of Emerson Hancock performing well against the Guardians on Sunday night. Hancock set a career high in strikeouts (9) while throwing six scoreless innings in his first outing of 2026. Across 168 career innings, Hancock has an 8% K-BB%, 4.67 expected ERA (xERA), and a 9.4% swinging-strike rate. The underlying metrics look worrisome, so the question remains whether we should be reacting strongly to his first start.
The visual below shows Hancock's player breakdown from his start on March 30.
After only throwing three sweepers against left-handed hitters in 2025, Hancock threw 23 of them (25.3%) in his first outing. It's worth noting that sweepers tend to be more effective against same-handed hitters, but the Guardians stacked left-handed hitters (93.8%) in Sunday's outing. As seen in the visual below, Hancock threw more sweepers to left-handed hitters in favor of fewer sinkers and changeups compared to previous seasons.
The pitch mix change in one outing was nice, but Hancock's sweeper movement profile shifted slightly. That's evident in Hancock's sweeper losing 1 mph of velocity while adding over 1 inch of drop and 1.5 inches of glove-side movement in 2026. Furthermore, Hancock's sweeper locations differed, as he threw them into the zone 20% of the time.
Hancock's sweeper was low and inside to left-handed hitters, and there were also backdoor sweepers on the outside corner.
With Hancock coming from a lower arm angle (18 degrees), it's worth highlighting that his four-seamer added nearly three inches of induced vertical break while locating the heater in the upper third of the zone. Theoretically, Hancock's four-seamer should generate weak contact if it maintains the arm-side movement while adding some induced vertical break.
It's one outing, but Hancock's movement profiles improved via the four-seam and sweeper, giving him potentially average stuff instead of below average. Hancock has been a command artist like teammate Bryan Woo, but without the positive outcomes or elite skills. Fantasy managers should be adding Hancock in most formats because there's a chance we see improvements throughout the season, and we want to trust the Mariners' pitching development.
Sandy Alcantara, SP, Miami Marlins
93% Rostered
In Sandy Alcantara's first season back from Tommy John surgery, he labored through 174 innings with a career-worst ERA (5.36) and a 1.27 WHIP in 2025. That suppressed Alcantara's draft price heading into 2026 after a brutal season. He was never a massive strikeout pitcher, but typically flashed above-average swinging-strike rates around 12-14% from 2021 to 2023.
The visual below shows Alcantara's player breakdown of his first start on March 27.
However, Alcantara's swinging-strike rate fell to 9.5% in 2025, leading to a smaller margin for error. It was one outing, but Alcantara's swinging-strike rate hit 15.1% against the Rockies in Miami. Alcantara apparently added a sweeper, which he threw 16.4% of the time in his first outing. The sweeper led his arsenal against right-handed hitters (21.1%), though he consistently threw six pitches over 13% of the time.
Alcantara's sweeper was thrown 2 mph slower than his slider, with nearly six inches more glove-side break than the slider. That should lead to weak contact and whiffs against right-handed hitters, keeping hitters off balance with two variations of a slider. That's an actionable change in Alcantara's pitch mix.
Besides the new pitch (sweeper), Alcantara's changeup added over one inch of arm-side fade (18.8 inches), making it a nasty trio of horizontal movement profiles via the four-seam (14.5 inches) and sinkers (17.8 inches). In addition to Alcantara's changeup adding arm-side fade in his first outing of 2026, the locations were different.
The visual below shows Alcantara's changeup locations in 2026 compared to 2025.
He threw his changeup over four inches lower than in 2025, similar to 2022 and 2023. Furthermore, Alcantara's changeup was thrown over three inches toward the middle of the plate, yet still low and below the zone. That makes hitters need to cover more vertical depth in the zone with the changeup location and movement profile change in 2026.
Keep tabs on Alcantara's new sweeper and changeup locations. The changeup is notable because it can elicit whiffs and generate plenty of groundballs. If Alcantara can maintain an above-average swinging-strike rate, generate grounders, and find success with the pitch-level changes, there could be a significant bounce-back season for him in 2026.
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