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The newest edition of The King's Fantasy Baseball Insider Series features the takes of a longtime MLB scout.
Scott Engel’s Fantasy Baseball Insider Series continues on RotoBaller as the 2024 campaign opens. Every year during the preseason and early in the regular season, Scott chats with key MLB sources to obtain exclusive insights. Interviewed on the condition of anonymity, current and former players, team executives, MLB scouts, media members, and others inside the game provide their unfiltered observations on notable players. Scott adds in fantasy baseball analysis on the information shared.
The newest edition of the FSWA award-winning Insider Series features the perspectives of an MLB scout who is in his fifth decade of covering both the American and National Leagues. He dishes in-depth takes on several impact fantasy baseball performers for 2024. Scott offers fantasy outlooks tied into the scout’s views.
These perceptions can confirm you made the right calls on draft day and will also be valuable when considering trade talks or whether to be patient with certain guys who start slowly.
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Elly De La Cruz
“I’m looking for a lot of upside from him. I think he will be more disciplined. I think that the year spent in the Majors already will be very beneficial. I am expecting .260 with 20 to 25 homers and 80 to 90 RBI. If De La Cruz gets on base at a better clip, he could steal 40 to 50. He was a little raw at the plate last year. It was all new to him. I think pitchers made some adjustments to him last year and now he will be able to make those adjustments back. “
Insider Angles: The expected numbers here are higher than the ATC projections of a .249 average with 21 homers, 71 RBI, and 38 steals. The outlook from the scout is encouraging for those who drafted De La La Cruz at an NFBC ADP of 22nd overall. The strikeout percentage is projected to be 31.6, but if the ascending Reds star makes the adjustments forecasted here, he will be well worth where he was drafted. If you landed De La Cruz with a top-25 pick, this is an encouraging scouting report.
CJ Abrams
“I like him a lot. He really developed last year and stole a lot of bases when they moved him into the leadoff spot. He struck out a little too much but took a big step forward, and I’m expecting that climb to continue. I think his average will go up to about .265. His home runs may dip, but he’ll be a better all-around hitter. He’s improving in terms of strikeouts and didn’t strike out a whole lot in the minors. I expect him to improve, and 60 steals is not out of the question.”
Insider Angles: Abrams is projected to hit .253 with 41 steals. He hit 18 HRs last season, but this source believes the speedy infielder can hit for a decent average while trimming the power as he develops into a better all-around hitter. The steals upside mentioned here, along with the floor cited in the projections, appears to indicate that the ADP of 36 can be right on the mark.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
“I think he’s going to have a top 5 MVP type of season. I could see .280. 40 homers and 120 RBIs. He’s stayed on the field for the last three years, which is a positive. I think the best is still ahead for him, and Guerrero’s only 25 years old. He’s already had five years in the Majors. Guerrero doesn’t really strike out a ton for a guy with his kind of power.”
Spring Training OPS leaders, entering today (min. 40 PA):
1.292 – Nick Pratto
1.280 – Jorge Polanco
1.276 – George Springer
1.236 – Eric Haase
1.218 – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. pic.twitter.com/05hYDHn8gz— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) March 26, 2024
“He’s been on the verge. Guerrero had a great year in 2021, and he will improve now with more experience. The lineup is not terrible. Maybe he tried to do a little too much last year, and I can see him bouncing back with a big season. He’s not a free agent yet and is two years away. I think Guerrero wants to put up some big numbers and help the Blue Jays make the playoffs.”
Insider Angles: Those who rostered Guerrero in the last two years grew frustrated with the overall output. Now the reward could be getting fantasy championship type of production for the ADP of 28. Guerrero finished second in the AL MVP voting in 2021. The forecast here is for him to well exceed the projections of 32 HRs and 98 RBI. The ’21 MLB HR leader may indeed prove his 2021 campaign was not an outlier, so I would want to have him on my roster right now in a dynasty league.
Royce Lewis
“An interesting player. He is a .300 type of hitter but strikes out a little too much. Cutting down on the strikeouts will lead to him being more efficient. There is 15 to 20 HR power, and Lewis has a year under his belt. I can project him for 20 HRs and 85 RBI, along with 10 to 15 steals. The coaches are going to stress cutting down on the strikeouts. He has been a .290 to .300 hitter throughout his minor league career. He played in some big games for the Twins last year, and obviously, there is not as much pressure playing in Minnesota.”
Insider Angles: Lewis often had strikeout percentages lower than the 23.0 of last season with the Twins in the minor leagues. Seeing some improvement in that regard will only help Lewis’ outlook and the real concern for him has been staying healthy. The 24-year-old made a big splash in the AL playoffs last season, hitting four home runs in six games. As long as Lewis stays on the field, he could come through with a true breakout year for the ADP of 44.
Tarik Skubal
“I think Skubal is ready for a big year. He is a year removed from the elbow surgery and the career ERA is under 4.00. He doesn’t walk a lot of batters. The Tigers are a much better team than they have been in the past. I can see Skubal winning 15 games, and if he gives you 130 innings, you might get 150 strikeouts. I like his stuff, and he’s got good command. He’s going to be tough on lefties. The Tigers are a sleeper in that division.”
Insider Angles: With a recent ADP of 47, it is apparent that those who drafted Skubal are banking on a true breakthrough year in 2024. Lefties hit .125 against him last season. Now at the age of 27, Skubal should be entering his prime. We all know that wins cannot be chased in fantasy baseball, but if Detroit outperforms its projected team win total, then you get an obvious bonus of more victories from Skubal. Consider taking the Over on the Tigers win total of 80.5 (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook, too.
Bobby Miller
“He will have to go through an adjustment period. Run support won’t be a problem, but the Dodgers’ infield defense is shaky. I’m looking at eight to 10 wins, and he doesn’t strike out a ton of hitters. I can see him getting 110 strikeouts if you get 120 innings. I think the ERA will be in the high 3.00 range. Miller’s gotten around the league already, so they kind of know him, and he will have to adjust back.”
Insider Angles: At an ADP of 72, fantasy players who drafted Miller expecting him to build on a very promising 2024 campaign could be frustrated with some early results. But he should eventually come around to perform well, as the 3.76 ERA was backed by a 3.75 xFIP last season. If Miller actually struggles early, he could be a viable trade target. The second-year man is still projected to finish with a 3.80 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
Dylan Cease
“If he stays healthy, 20 wins is possible. This guy has given you the innings the last few years and played with a very bad White Sox team last season. His wins and ERA will improve on a better team. I could see him giving you 230 strikeouts in 180 to 190 innings. He’s got that kind of stuff. He’s in a better ballpark and has a better team behind him. Cease is going to be motivated more. He’s out of Chicago, and you can stale on that kind of team. The Padres are going to be a challenge for the Dodgers and will give them problems.”
If that first inning is anything similar to what the San Diego Padres are going to get out of Dylan Cease this year………
It’s going to be a fun year in DAYGO
— Devine Sports Gospel (@DevineGospel) March 18, 2024
Insider Angles: This is a case where we have to consider other intangibles besides just what the numbers indicate on a screen. Just two seasons ago, Cease finished second in the AL Cy Young voting, and this year, his ADP dropped to 102 after his disaster of a campaign in 2023. Cease is projected to have a 3.92 ERA with a 27.5 strikeout percentage this season, and while the WHIP may still be an annoying issue, he could prove to be quite a value pick in a quality rebound year. I was pretty happy to get Cease for 13 dollars in the Tout Wars Mixed Auction.
Michael King
“I love Michael King’s stuff. He’s going to give you a lot of strikeouts. If he can pitch 115 to 120 innings, I could see King striking out 140 and winning 10 to 12 games. The big thing will be the increase in the innings. He was a starter later last season, showed a lot of potential, and can go through a lineup two to three times. The innings will have to be monitored, but if he can stay healthy, you will get the strikeouts.”
Insider Angles: In nine starts for the Yankees last season, King pitched to a 2.23 ERA and 1.14 WHIP while striking out 11.9 batters per nine innings. Over a full season in 2024, he is projected to fashion a 3.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with a 9.9 K/9 rate. King should prove to be a good value pick at the ADP of 141, especially moving to a new league with a significantly positive park shift.
Logan O'Hoppe
“I liked what I saw when he got to play with the Angels last season. He’s not going to hit for average, but he has sneaky power for 15 to 16 HRs. If he stays healthy, you will also get 60 to 70 RBI. He’s not playing on a great team but seems to know what he is doing at the plate. He’s not a chaser. For a young player, that is a good trait to have. He will make pitchers work and can build on that.”
Insider Angles: If you drafted O’Hoppe around the ADP of 152, the power returns can be very satisfying. He hit nine HRs last September and is projected to hit 23, so the scout here may be forecasting on the conservative side. O’Hoppe had a K percentage of 24.1 last season, but the number was often lower in the minors, and the batting average prediction here is nearly on point with the ATC projection of .253. This backstop could turn out to be quite the value, especially in two-catcher formats.
Francisco Alvarez
“I think he is going to take a step forward, although it won’t be a giant step. He will have more of a clue about what he is doing at the plate. The guy was handed a lot last year and still hit 25 home runs. That is pretty darn good, even though he had lapses late in the year. He may have been fatigued with the workload last year. Alvarez caught a lot of games and had to learn the pitchers. He had a really good July and then he was not that great in August and September. “
Break out the tape measure for this Francisco Alvarez homer! 📏 pic.twitter.com/pvya52EG6s
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 5, 2023
Insider Angles: Alvarez had an ISO of .228 last season, and is projected to be at .215 this year, so the power promise is evident. Last July, he hit .275 with eight homers and 16 RBI but slumped to .139 with one homer and five RBI in August. Over a full season in 2024, Alvarez is projected to hit .228 with 24 homers. The 22-year-old was a .273 career hitter in the minors, so he could get closer to .250 over time while having 30-homer upside. He was a worthy pick for pop at an ADP of 142.
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